Vince Jansen
@vincejansen.bsky.social
Founder of Artificial Alpha Investments. Testing equity ideas here and on Substack: https://www.artificialalphainvestments.com/
Please read disclosure information: http://bit.ly/3VBK8na
Skol Vikes!
Please read disclosure information: http://bit.ly/3VBK8na
Skol Vikes!
These confirmation indicators lead by ~4 months:
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)
These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)
These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.
December 12, 2024 at 5:08 PM
These confirmation indicators lead by ~4 months:
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)
These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.
1) Business Applications (strong)
2) Loan Standards (medium)
3) Home Sales (mediocre)
4) Financial Conditions (strong)
These data suggest real growth holds up into Q1, albeit weaker. I'm watching closely for next summer though.
Leading data need help and they've needed help since Q1. Housing data has poured cold water on the idea of easing. Seems like the Fed wants to help but can't. 2025 could be a 🥒-zone!
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
December 12, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Leading data need help and they've needed help since Q1. Housing data has poured cold water on the idea of easing. Seems like the Fed wants to help but can't. 2025 could be a 🥒-zone!
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
Only thing I'll say is that I don't think leading data are recessionary, just very low growth.
This was the chart that finally got me. Explains so much about how/why people stayed too bearish over the past few years.
December 12, 2024 at 3:44 PM
This was the chart that finally got me. Explains so much about how/why people stayed too bearish over the past few years.
Buffett Indicator, Shiller ratio... They just don't work.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
December 12, 2024 at 2:06 AM
Buffett Indicator, Shiller ratio... They just don't work.
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
www.artificialalphainvestments.com/p/misleading...
The labor force data were not ideal last Friday
December 10, 2024 at 5:27 AM
The labor force data were not ideal last Friday
Back to 2021/1999 valuations
December 10, 2024 at 5:18 AM
Back to 2021/1999 valuations
3) Extended USD
The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.
The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.
December 9, 2024 at 7:58 PM
3) Extended USD
The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.
The real dollar is extended, suggesting that valuation gaps and concentration extremes are not fully justified.
2) USA equity concentration
The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.
The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.
December 9, 2024 at 7:58 PM
2) USA equity concentration
The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.
The ratio between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index is the highest it has been since the 1960s.
1) Forward P/Es
1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
Now
EM 12x
US 22x
1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
Now
EM 12x
US 22x
December 9, 2024 at 7:58 PM
1) Forward P/Es
1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
Now
EM 12x
US 22x
1995:
EM 25x
US 13x
US outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
2001:
EM 10x
US 20x
EM outperforms by 20% per year for 5 years
Now
EM 12x
US 22x
The Russell 2000 is a bad index and doesn't deserve consideration imo. I'd suggest comparing the S&P 400 vs. the S&P 600. Or here is the CRSP version of VO/VB.
November 28, 2024 at 3:56 AM
The Russell 2000 is a bad index and doesn't deserve consideration imo. I'd suggest comparing the S&P 400 vs. the S&P 600. Or here is the CRSP version of VO/VB.
Business applications lead by ~4 months. Great data last week.
November 22, 2024 at 4:06 PM
Business applications lead by ~4 months. Great data last week.
The Fed started cutting, I'm seeing a bottom in the leading aggregates I track, confirming data coming in hot, risk on within equities today.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
November 22, 2024 at 4:06 PM
The Fed started cutting, I'm seeing a bottom in the leading aggregates I track, confirming data coming in hot, risk on within equities today.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
I'm watching next Tuesday's housing data closely for additional signs of easing.
Year ahead macro is starting to get more constructive.
Biases like these are incompatible with being a serious investor. ht @samro.bsky.social and UMich
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
November 22, 2024 at 3:22 PM
Biases like these are incompatible with being a serious investor. ht @samro.bsky.social and UMich
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Similar article from 2021: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
November 21, 2024 at 5:14 AM
The NFL's annualized price returns are incredible.
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
1920-1967
NFL = 27.2%
S&P 500 = 5.0%
1967-2023
NFL = 12.6%
S&P 500 = 7.1%
4) Like gold, I suspect BTC's true nature is to hedge capitalism as a near-perfect commodity. For now, it is mostly an options contract on adoption.
November 19, 2024 at 11:08 PM
4) Like gold, I suspect BTC's true nature is to hedge capitalism as a near-perfect commodity. For now, it is mostly an options contract on adoption.
Couple beliefs I have relevant to BTC:
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
November 19, 2024 at 11:08 PM
Couple beliefs I have relevant to BTC:
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
1) BTC is a hedge against debasement. Short-term it is in fact inversely correlated to the dollar.
Here's one for Super Bowl winning QBs:
November 18, 2024 at 3:26 PM
Here's one for Super Bowl winning QBs:
One of the only forms of technical analysis I use, I always make sure to look at this screen on a day like today
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
One of the only forms of technical analysis I use, I always make sure to look at this screen on a day like today
What does it mean if Gold/Stocks have a secular bull together
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
What does it mean if Gold/Stocks have a secular bull together
This GS chart making the rounds almost certainly uses valuations.
Valuations don't steadily revert to the mean however, they adjust quickly during a recession:
In the meantime, positive economic outcomes would likely extend valuations further:…
Valuations don't steadily revert to the mean however, they adjust quickly during a recession:
In the meantime, positive economic outcomes would likely extend valuations further:…
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
This GS chart making the rounds almost certainly uses valuations.
Valuations don't steadily revert to the mean however, they adjust quickly during a recession:
In the meantime, positive economic outcomes would likely extend valuations further:…
Valuations don't steadily revert to the mean however, they adjust quickly during a recession:
In the meantime, positive economic outcomes would likely extend valuations further:…
Not sure this is predictive, but interesting
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
Not sure this is predictive, but interesting
As small caps become more and more talked about... Don't choose $IWM.
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
As small caps become more and more talked about... Don't choose $IWM.
Reaction to monthly data is fair for some traders, but even at a 1yr timeframe I aggregate to the quarter because there's too much noise on a monthly basis. Q3 shows:
- U-3 rising
- Payroll growth falling
- Non-shelter inflation below
- Shelter inflation falling
- U-3 rising
- Payroll growth falling
- Non-shelter inflation below
- Shelter inflation falling
November 18, 2024 at 2:16 AM
Reaction to monthly data is fair for some traders, but even at a 1yr timeframe I aggregate to the quarter because there's too much noise on a monthly basis. Q3 shows:
- U-3 rising
- Payroll growth falling
- Non-shelter inflation below
- Shelter inflation falling
- U-3 rising
- Payroll growth falling
- Non-shelter inflation below
- Shelter inflation falling