Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@vainius.bsky.social
Former data science lead | Now studying digital policy | 🇱🇹 citizen | standing with 🇺🇦
Pinned
Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@vainius.bsky.social
· Nov 20
Hi bluesky people 👋
A short thread about me:
I'm from Lithuania, but I also have a special attachment to London and San Francisco.
I enjoy data analysis and have been practicing it for over a decade.
Recently, I decided to try something new and started a PhD in political science.
A short thread about me:
I'm from Lithuania, but I also have a special attachment to London and San Francisco.
I enjoy data analysis and have been practicing it for over a decade.
Recently, I decided to try something new and started a PhD in political science.
Reflections from J. Sullivan on why the U.S. didn't help Ukraine more assertively.
The U.S. could have provided the weapons needed to push russia out in the autumn of 2022, when the conditions were most favorable, but chose to delay.
The U.S. could have provided the weapons needed to push russia out in the autumn of 2022, when the conditions were most favorable, but chose to delay.
May 21, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Reflections from J. Sullivan on why the U.S. didn't help Ukraine more assertively.
The U.S. could have provided the weapons needed to push russia out in the autumn of 2022, when the conditions were most favorable, but chose to delay.
The U.S. could have provided the weapons needed to push russia out in the autumn of 2022, when the conditions were most favorable, but chose to delay.
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Extreme cruelty of the Soviet state was never fully comprehended by the world community. And so today it is important to remember May 1944, when every single Crimean Tatar was resettled, exiled, and was persecuted till the end of the Soviet Union.
May 18, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Extreme cruelty of the Soviet state was never fully comprehended by the world community. And so today it is important to remember May 1944, when every single Crimean Tatar was resettled, exiled, and was persecuted till the end of the Soviet Union.
When Ziferblat said "Slava Ukraini" after their performance
our national broadcaster's commentator replied "Heroiam slava"
as I’m sure did every Lithuanian household watching it
💙💛
our national broadcaster's commentator replied "Heroiam slava"
as I’m sure did every Lithuanian household watching it
💙💛
May 17, 2025 at 7:55 PM
When Ziferblat said "Slava Ukraini" after their performance
our national broadcaster's commentator replied "Heroiam slava"
as I’m sure did every Lithuanian household watching it
💙💛
our national broadcaster's commentator replied "Heroiam slava"
as I’m sure did every Lithuanian household watching it
💙💛
Op-ed from a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine
Trump admin's policy - pressuring Ukraine, but not russia - is clearly visible to outsiders as well, but it's great that she has spoken out
eu.freep.com/story/opinio...
Trump admin's policy - pressuring Ukraine, but not russia - is clearly visible to outsiders as well, but it's great that she has spoken out
eu.freep.com/story/opinio...
May 17, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Op-ed from a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine
Trump admin's policy - pressuring Ukraine, but not russia - is clearly visible to outsiders as well, but it's great that she has spoken out
eu.freep.com/story/opinio...
Trump admin's policy - pressuring Ukraine, but not russia - is clearly visible to outsiders as well, but it's great that she has spoken out
eu.freep.com/story/opinio...
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
As the diplomatic theater drags on, I'm here to remind you that nothing has changed politically/militarily to move the status quo. Ru wants capitulation, Ukraine won't surrender, Europe is w Ukr rhetorically but is unable to step up big time, Trump wants a quick end but perhaps not at any cost.
May 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM
As the diplomatic theater drags on, I'm here to remind you that nothing has changed politically/militarily to move the status quo. Ru wants capitulation, Ukraine won't surrender, Europe is w Ukr rhetorically but is unable to step up big time, Trump wants a quick end but perhaps not at any cost.
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
DC friends: Will be presenting Intent to Destroy at GW next Tuesday (May 20) 4pm, so please come if you are interested. And let me know if you want to meet for coffee/lunch before that
Intent to Destroy: Russia's Two-Hundred-Year Quest to Dominate Ukraine | Book Talk with Eugene Finkel
calendar.gwu.edu
May 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
DC friends: Will be presenting Intent to Destroy at GW next Tuesday (May 20) 4pm, so please come if you are interested. And let me know if you want to meet for coffee/lunch before that
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
So let me get this straight: masks are bad and un-American if worn to fight a pandemic, but good if worn by people claiming to be government agents when they kidnap people off the street
May 10, 2025 at 3:06 PM
So let me get this straight: masks are bad and un-American if worn to fight a pandemic, but good if worn by people claiming to be government agents when they kidnap people off the street
Good article.
The problem is not the use of Signal, but the use of personal phones, which can be compromised
- especially assuming that adversary states have access to various spyware tools.
The problem is not the use of Signal, but the use of personal phones, which can be compromised
- especially assuming that adversary states have access to various spyware tools.
Many of the Signal group members presumably used their personal devices to connect, writes @rondeibert.bsky.social. “In doing so, they exposed the Pentagon, and the United States itself, to a slew of sophisticated digital security risks.”
The Real Lesson of Signalgate
A surveillance arms race has poked a gaping hole in national security.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 7, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Good article.
The problem is not the use of Signal, but the use of personal phones, which can be compromised
- especially assuming that adversary states have access to various spyware tools.
The problem is not the use of Signal, but the use of personal phones, which can be compromised
- especially assuming that adversary states have access to various spyware tools.
An important reminder.
And a counterpoint to political science theories that view institutions as inherently constraining or defining the 'rules of the game' that generate possible moves.
Institutions constrain action only if there are actors willing to defend the rules.
And a counterpoint to political science theories that view institutions as inherently constraining or defining the 'rules of the game' that generate possible moves.
Institutions constrain action only if there are actors willing to defend the rules.
Your occasional reminder that tariffs are constitutionally a Congressional power, which they have delegated to the President under the premise that there is some sort of emergency. The Republicans in Congress can reclaim that power anytime they want.
May 5, 2025 at 9:06 AM
An important reminder.
And a counterpoint to political science theories that view institutions as inherently constraining or defining the 'rules of the game' that generate possible moves.
Institutions constrain action only if there are actors willing to defend the rules.
And a counterpoint to political science theories that view institutions as inherently constraining or defining the 'rules of the game' that generate possible moves.
Institutions constrain action only if there are actors willing to defend the rules.
resharing here
as the message on being more strategic in communication is applicable more broadly
as the message on being more strategic in communication is applicable more broadly
April 23, 2025 at 6:56 PM
resharing here
as the message on being more strategic in communication is applicable more broadly
as the message on being more strategic in communication is applicable more broadly
My comment on this.
"Neutral" (optimistic) scenario is the one where U.S. doesn't actively help russia.
"Neutral" (optimistic) scenario is the one where U.S. doesn't actively help russia.
April 22, 2025 at 12:46 PM
My comment on this.
"Neutral" (optimistic) scenario is the one where U.S. doesn't actively help russia.
"Neutral" (optimistic) scenario is the one where U.S. doesn't actively help russia.
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Front pages on 2025-04-10
April 10, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Front pages on 2025-04-10
Norway 💪 💛
This is very substantial and makes Norway one of the top (if not the top) supporters this year.
Other European countries should follow their lead.
This is very substantial and makes Norway one of the top (if not the top) supporters this year.
Other European countries should follow their lead.
April 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Norway 💪 💛
This is very substantial and makes Norway one of the top (if not the top) supporters this year.
Other European countries should follow their lead.
This is very substantial and makes Norway one of the top (if not the top) supporters this year.
Other European countries should follow their lead.
Intro to the DNI's annual threat assessment has a Mearsheimer-y 'realist' twist.
Did they have to add '...and security'?
Also, adding the qualifier 'perceived (...) encroachment' doesn't change the fact that it's an interpretation.
Did others notice?
cc: @popovaprof.bsky.social
Did they have to add '...and security'?
Also, adding the qualifier 'perceived (...) encroachment' doesn't change the fact that it's an interpretation.
Did others notice?
cc: @popovaprof.bsky.social
March 27, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Intro to the DNI's annual threat assessment has a Mearsheimer-y 'realist' twist.
Did they have to add '...and security'?
Also, adding the qualifier 'perceived (...) encroachment' doesn't change the fact that it's an interpretation.
Did others notice?
cc: @popovaprof.bsky.social
Did they have to add '...and security'?
Also, adding the qualifier 'perceived (...) encroachment' doesn't change the fact that it's an interpretation.
Did others notice?
cc: @popovaprof.bsky.social
March 20, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Ukraine's former minister of defense:
1) Ukraine can survive without the U.S., as long as support from Europe stays strong
2) U.S. could exert pressure on russia to secure a "settlement that protects Ukraine’s long-term security" [but will they?..]
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
1) Ukraine can survive without the U.S., as long as support from Europe stays strong
2) U.S. could exert pressure on russia to secure a "settlement that protects Ukraine’s long-term security" [but will they?..]
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
Ukraine Without America
How Kyiv can persist in the face of a hostile Washington.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 5, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Ukraine's former minister of defense:
1) Ukraine can survive without the U.S., as long as support from Europe stays strong
2) U.S. could exert pressure on russia to secure a "settlement that protects Ukraine’s long-term security" [but will they?..]
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
1) Ukraine can survive without the U.S., as long as support from Europe stays strong
2) U.S. could exert pressure on russia to secure a "settlement that protects Ukraine’s long-term security" [but will they?..]
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
As we commemorate 3 years since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, each of us can personally contribute to Ukraine's resilience.
Here are 3 ways to help financially.
Each donation helps good people do important work, increases Ukraine's resilience, and supports its economy.
👇
Here are 3 ways to help financially.
Each donation helps good people do important work, increases Ukraine's resilience, and supports its economy.
👇
February 24, 2025 at 10:39 AM
As we commemorate 3 years since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, each of us can personally contribute to Ukraine's resilience.
Here are 3 ways to help financially.
Each donation helps good people do important work, increases Ukraine's resilience, and supports its economy.
👇
Here are 3 ways to help financially.
Each donation helps good people do important work, increases Ukraine's resilience, and supports its economy.
👇
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
It even surprises me how these people fit so neatly into my model of information disorder, distrust that's radicalised by online communities that reinforce that sense of distrust.
February 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM
It even surprises me how these people fit so neatly into my model of information disorder, distrust that's radicalised by online communities that reinforce that sense of distrust.
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
First impressions from the Munich Conference: it is not entirely clear how one can accuse Europe of insufficient defense funding and at the same time be friends with those against whom this defense is directed.
February 14, 2025 at 10:26 PM
First impressions from the Munich Conference: it is not entirely clear how one can accuse Europe of insufficient defense funding and at the same time be friends with those against whom this defense is directed.
Great thread on Dudayev and history of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria
February 15, 1944, the 1st President of the free people of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was born. He was the 1st Chechen ever to rise to the rank of Major General in the Soviet military. In 1991 as Eastern Europe was in various stages of separation from the USSR, Dudayev was… 👇🏻
February 15, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Great thread on Dudayev and history of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Europe can’t rely on the strength of the transatlantic relationship to help contain Russia’s threat – it must lead from the front and be the true force of support that Ukraine needs. Not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for a free and sovereign Europe.
On Ukraine, Europe must step into the void | Virgin
www.virgin.com
February 15, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Europe can’t rely on the strength of the transatlantic relationship to help contain Russia’s threat – it must lead from the front and be the true force of support that Ukraine needs. Not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for a free and sovereign Europe.
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
It was an honour to host @efinkel.bsky.social at @uclssees.bsky.social last night in partnership with @ukrinstitute.bsky.social to hear how Russian myths about identity & history have morphed into brutal acts of violence against Ukraine.Thanks @okhromeychuk.bsky.social for moderating. Read his book!
February 14, 2025 at 10:24 AM
It was an honour to host @efinkel.bsky.social at @uclssees.bsky.social last night in partnership with @ukrinstitute.bsky.social to hear how Russian myths about identity & history have morphed into brutal acts of violence against Ukraine.Thanks @okhromeychuk.bsky.social for moderating. Read his book!
BONUS EPISODE: Adam Kinzinger and Prof. Phillips O'Brien
America, Ukraine, Trump, Musk and more!
open.substack.com
February 11, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Reposted by Vainius 🇱🇹🇺🇦
"sacrificing the rule of law to government efficiency is a good way to end up with neither"
www.ft.com/content/f766...
www.ft.com/content/f766...
Elon Musk’s assault on the US federal bureaucracy
Supposed efficiency drive is providing cover for a power grab by the executive branch
www.ft.com
February 11, 2025 at 9:34 AM
"sacrificing the rule of law to government efficiency is a good way to end up with neither"
www.ft.com/content/f766...
www.ft.com/content/f766...