Tom Haddon
@tomh-analyst.bsky.social
16 years as an energy market analyst, now working on asset transactions and investment advice across the energy industry. All views are my own.
More background: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-haddon-62aa7642/
More background: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-haddon-62aa7642/
Rumours are they read the energy market stuff in the business section, saw Kathryn Porter was the go to 'analyst' and then ran to the hills.
(This is satire before anyone tries to sue me - but all good satire is indistinguishable from reality, after all)
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
(This is satire before anyone tries to sue me - but all good satire is indistinguishable from reality, after all)
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
RedBird Capital drops £500m Telegraph takeover bid
US private equity group’s deal collapses amid newsroom criticism and threat of regulator intervention
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Rumours are they read the energy market stuff in the business section, saw Kathryn Porter was the go to 'analyst' and then ran to the hills.
(This is satire before anyone tries to sue me - but all good satire is indistinguishable from reality, after all)
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
(This is satire before anyone tries to sue me - but all good satire is indistinguishable from reality, after all)
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
Don't worry. It bounced again right at the end of the day (and is bouncing again today) - so the analysis is largely moot now after gas prices show serious bouncebackability.
Shred the below, back to the drawing board etc etc.
Shred the below, back to the drawing board etc etc.
UK front month gas prices are having another run at sub 80p/th today (-2% @ 79.5p/th currently) having bounced to close over the threshold a couple of days ago - so refresh yourselves with this.
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
November 14, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Don't worry. It bounced again right at the end of the day (and is bouncing again today) - so the analysis is largely moot now after gas prices show serious bouncebackability.
Shred the below, back to the drawing board etc etc.
Shred the below, back to the drawing board etc etc.
I missed this last week, but I am becoming concerned that people in power are basing policy on the idiot ramblings of an idiot analyst.
A DESNZ consultation was published on changing inflation for RPI to CPI under the Renewable Obligation (RO)...
Link to that in next post.
A DESNZ consultation was published on changing inflation for RPI to CPI under the Renewable Obligation (RO)...
Link to that in next post.
I don't know the answer to this, but would it be so bad to do a limited reopening of RO contracts?
I mean, they have banked levels of index that will have been way above business plan assumptions since they were built (and doubt opex will have kept up pound for pound).
I mean, they have banked levels of index that will have been way above business plan assumptions since they were built (and doubt opex will have kept up pound for pound).
November 14, 2025 at 9:16 AM
I missed this last week, but I am becoming concerned that people in power are basing policy on the idiot ramblings of an idiot analyst.
A DESNZ consultation was published on changing inflation for RPI to CPI under the Renewable Obligation (RO)...
Link to that in next post.
A DESNZ consultation was published on changing inflation for RPI to CPI under the Renewable Obligation (RO)...
Link to that in next post.
UK front month gas prices are having another run at sub 80p/th today (-2% @ 79.5p/th currently) having bounced to close over the threshold a couple of days ago - so refresh yourselves with this.
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
November 13, 2025 at 1:13 PM
UK front month gas prices are having another run at sub 80p/th today (-2% @ 79.5p/th currently) having bounced to close over the threshold a couple of days ago - so refresh yourselves with this.
For you scared old people*: LNG oversupply cannot cause hub prices to "crash". It will bring prices down but you still pay for E&P, liquefaction, shipping, boil off, regasification. That is incredibly energy intensive.
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
November 12, 2025 at 11:12 AM
For you scared old people*: LNG oversupply cannot cause hub prices to "crash". It will bring prices down but you still pay for E&P, liquefaction, shipping, boil off, regasification. That is incredibly energy intensive.
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
Just remember I kind of predicted this.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
November 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Just remember I kind of predicted this.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
Caveat is fairly obvious here that I know nothing of military capability and the geographies involved are vast, but surely a half decent Russian air force could defend against this?
You could get a Sopwith Camel up to speed to chase that down over the many hours it must take to reach its target!
You could get a Sopwith Camel up to speed to chase that down over the many hours it must take to reach its target!
Ukrainian long-range strike drones heading for the refinery in Orsk.
November 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Caveat is fairly obvious here that I know nothing of military capability and the geographies involved are vast, but surely a half decent Russian air force could defend against this?
You could get a Sopwith Camel up to speed to chase that down over the many hours it must take to reach its target!
You could get a Sopwith Camel up to speed to chase that down over the many hours it must take to reach its target!
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 PM
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Reminds me of a similar story from an energy perspective. You would think the main cyber threat would be at nuclear plants or similar, but much more scary is the threat to smart thermostats in homes and the ability to brick heating in cold temps.
The low level stuff is sometimes the target.
The low level stuff is sometimes the target.
a friend who worked in AI said to me a few years ago there were multiple ways it could completely paralyse central/local govt & i thought he meant some kind of hacking but his two egs were: AI-generated planning submissions and AI-generated FOI, produced in such quantities the system just gums up
November 9, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Reminds me of a similar story from an energy perspective. You would think the main cyber threat would be at nuclear plants or similar, but much more scary is the threat to smart thermostats in homes and the ability to brick heating in cold temps.
The low level stuff is sometimes the target.
The low level stuff is sometimes the target.
European gas withdrawal season is officially* over.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
November 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
European gas withdrawal season is officially* over.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
I am stealing that sentence below for whenever someone brings up GB Energy, or if I were to ever meet anyone who works for GB Energy.
“What problems are you actually interested in solving?” - a question that I’m not sure most of our current crop of politicians could answer.
November 6, 2025 at 11:58 AM
I am stealing that sentence below for whenever someone brings up GB Energy, or if I were to ever meet anyone who works for GB Energy.
The data continues piling up from non-sophisticated anecdotes, to sophisticated anecdotes (this one), right up to fleet telematics data that the battery management systems in EVs have solved battery degradation (at least to a level that keeps the vehicle on the road)...
6/7 Then I found a certificate in the emails. Battery is at 97% state of health at around 100.000km. (which is very good)
November 6, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The data continues piling up from non-sophisticated anecdotes, to sophisticated anecdotes (this one), right up to fleet telematics data that the battery management systems in EVs have solved battery degradation (at least to a level that keeps the vehicle on the road)...
From just the amount of stuff from an energy perspective I've heard about the budget (levies, EV milage, ECO, O&G windfall etc) it feels like the 'flooding the zone' strategy as it will all fade against the income tax changes that are coming.
I assume repeated in other sectors than energy, too.
I assume repeated in other sectors than energy, too.
November 6, 2025 at 9:41 AM
From just the amount of stuff from an energy perspective I've heard about the budget (levies, EV milage, ECO, O&G windfall etc) it feels like the 'flooding the zone' strategy as it will all fade against the income tax changes that are coming.
I assume repeated in other sectors than energy, too.
I assume repeated in other sectors than energy, too.
Let's spin the 'terrible short term policy to try and get us out a hole' wheel.
Where does it end up?
The creek, that's where. We live in the age of political cowardice.
Where does it end up?
The creek, that's where. We live in the age of political cowardice.
I’m afraid I’ve heard enough to take this seriously - No.10 is thinking of abolishing ECO, the main source of funding for upgrading fuel poor homes.
There’s no way to sugar coat this: it would be a disaster.
And it would mean this government spending less on upgrading homes than the last one
There’s no way to sugar coat this: it would be a disaster.
And it would mean this government spending less on upgrading homes than the last one
To be clear, what is being proposed here is to axe the main mechanism for getting Britain’s homes insulated - which is by FAR the best way to reduce household energy bills in the long term 🤦♂️
…and also, just incidentally, an absolute non-negotiable requirement for meeting UK climate targets 😬🥵☠️
…and also, just incidentally, an absolute non-negotiable requirement for meeting UK climate targets 😬🥵☠️
November 5, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Let's spin the 'terrible short term policy to try and get us out a hole' wheel.
Where does it end up?
The creek, that's where. We live in the age of political cowardice.
Where does it end up?
The creek, that's where. We live in the age of political cowardice.
Had a (near) front and centre seat on this transaction so will be careful what I say but one thing you should take away is the certainty and confidence the sector now has in both execution (i.e. building) and ongoing operational management of offshore wind.
www.apollo.com/insights-new...
www.apollo.com/insights-new...
Apollo Funds Commit $6.5 Billion to Ørsted’s Hornsea 3 in the UK
NEW YORK , Nov. 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Apollo (NYSE: APO) today announced that Apollo-managed funds have agreed to invest $6.5 billion in a 50% stake in Ørsted’s Hornsea 3. The $6.5 billion...
www.apollo.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Had a (near) front and centre seat on this transaction so will be careful what I say but one thing you should take away is the certainty and confidence the sector now has in both execution (i.e. building) and ongoing operational management of offshore wind.
www.apollo.com/insights-new...
www.apollo.com/insights-new...
Tom Bent (@tombent.bsky.social) on LinkedIn (sadly not posting on BSky) highlighting the shenanigans in the Capacity Market.
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
November 5, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Tom Bent (@tombent.bsky.social) on LinkedIn (sadly not posting on BSky) highlighting the shenanigans in the Capacity Market.
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
Now when I'm in London I do a fairly long stretch of walking along Tottenham Court Road.
It's silent! Electric cars, electric buses (some), less traffic overall and loads of bikes.
It's great.
(*Apart from the millions of dubiously 'parked' Lime bikes)
It's silent! Electric cars, electric buses (some), less traffic overall and loads of bikes.
It's great.
(*Apart from the millions of dubiously 'parked' Lime bikes)
Walking to work in London and being hit by a thump of culture shock. It’s amazing how many people are commuting to work on public bicycles here! Inspiring, really!
#LoveLondon
#LoveLondon
November 3, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Now when I'm in London I do a fairly long stretch of walking along Tottenham Court Road.
It's silent! Electric cars, electric buses (some), less traffic overall and loads of bikes.
It's great.
(*Apart from the millions of dubiously 'parked' Lime bikes)
It's silent! Electric cars, electric buses (some), less traffic overall and loads of bikes.
It's great.
(*Apart from the millions of dubiously 'parked' Lime bikes)
EU gas prices are relatively subdued at the moment, mostly because LNG supply is plentiful.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
November 3, 2025 at 9:15 AM
EU gas prices are relatively subdued at the moment, mostly because LNG supply is plentiful.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
We're in a good to spot to display why co-locating BESS with wind generation is a bit challenging. We've now got 4 straight days (probably more) of pretty much high but flat wind conditions.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
October 31, 2025 at 10:04 AM
We're in a good to spot to display why co-locating BESS with wind generation is a bit challenging. We've now got 4 straight days (probably more) of pretty much high but flat wind conditions.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
The November NBP contract has officially expired. My front-month-gas-prices-are-stuck-at-80p-per-therm psychosis is over! Thank god.
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
October 31, 2025 at 9:48 AM
The November NBP contract has officially expired. My front-month-gas-prices-are-stuck-at-80p-per-therm psychosis is over! Thank god.
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Recently posted how I feel Western nations should really, like properly, enable Ukraine to go after Russian energy infra because gas (and oil) prices really don't care, and I've picked up a gaggle of the most mental followers going: the "Heavy Bonker" crew.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
October 30, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Recently posted how I feel Western nations should really, like properly, enable Ukraine to go after Russian energy infra because gas (and oil) prices really don't care, and I've picked up a gaggle of the most mental followers going: the "Heavy Bonker" crew.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
There goes the follow up I was going to pitch to Net Zero Watch (after burning kittens) that burning people is better than windmills.
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
October 30, 2025 at 5:49 PM
There goes the follow up I was going to pitch to Net Zero Watch (after burning kittens) that burning people is better than windmills.
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Fits with FES'25 that has a hydrogen friendly pathway with hydrogen getting edged out basically everywhere (with ~none in resi heat and much lower in industrial heat Vs prior years).
FES'26 new pathway loading I feel. Wonder what the underlying premise will be...
FES'26 new pathway loading I feel. Wonder what the underlying premise will be...
Hydrogen is now extremely dead, as the Government reveals in the modelling annex it has not even bothered to model it. /7
a man in a suit and tie says i don t think about you at all
ALT: a man in a suit and tie says i don t think about you at all
media.tenor.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Fits with FES'25 that has a hydrogen friendly pathway with hydrogen getting edged out basically everywhere (with ~none in resi heat and much lower in industrial heat Vs prior years).
FES'26 new pathway loading I feel. Wonder what the underlying premise will be...
FES'26 new pathway loading I feel. Wonder what the underlying premise will be...
In some ways I'm jealous. The recurring revenue stream that Porter has found writing or contributing to scare stories for old ill-informed scared people is just such easy money.
However, in many ways I'm not jealous because: (debatable) integrity.
However, in many ways I'm not jealous because: (debatable) integrity.
FACTCHECK: The frontpage of today's Daily Telegraph has a very confused story about offshore wind, which is all sorts of wrong
It says a technical change means higher subsidies & fewer new windfarms from the upcoming AR7 auction
Oopsie!
This is the opposite of the truth 🧵
It says a technical change means higher subsidies & fewer new windfarms from the upcoming AR7 auction
Oopsie!
This is the opposite of the truth 🧵
October 29, 2025 at 1:16 PM
In some ways I'm jealous. The recurring revenue stream that Porter has found writing or contributing to scare stories for old ill-informed scared people is just such easy money.
However, in many ways I'm not jealous because: (debatable) integrity.
However, in many ways I'm not jealous because: (debatable) integrity.
Injections into the European gas storage system have been tiny in October. Certainly lower than I expected.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Injections into the European gas storage system have been tiny in October. Certainly lower than I expected.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.