Tom Haddon
@tomh-analyst.bsky.social
16 years as an energy market analyst, now working on asset transactions and investment advice across the energy industry. All views are my own.
More background: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-haddon-62aa7642/
More background: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-haddon-62aa7642/
Gas used to be *all* weather. Now, not so much, but you are right: we're swinging from above average temps, to in line/slightly below for November so prices will reflect that.
Today / Week from today (colours vs average)
Today / Week from today (colours vs average)
November 14, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Gas used to be *all* weather. Now, not so much, but you are right: we're swinging from above average temps, to in line/slightly below for November so prices will reflect that.
Today / Week from today (colours vs average)
Today / Week from today (colours vs average)
And what is fairly interesting, is that the relative European calm, is now essentially being paid for by the American consumer.
US nat gas spot prices up 50%.
This is not all LNG, in fact might only be a small amount (probably more data centre demand), but politically it will hit soon enough.
US nat gas spot prices up 50%.
This is not all LNG, in fact might only be a small amount (probably more data centre demand), but politically it will hit soon enough.
November 13, 2025 at 1:41 PM
And what is fairly interesting, is that the relative European calm, is now essentially being paid for by the American consumer.
US nat gas spot prices up 50%.
This is not all LNG, in fact might only be a small amount (probably more data centre demand), but politically it will hit soon enough.
US nat gas spot prices up 50%.
This is not all LNG, in fact might only be a small amount (probably more data centre demand), but politically it will hit soon enough.
For you scared old people*: LNG oversupply cannot cause hub prices to "crash". It will bring prices down but you still pay for E&P, liquefaction, shipping, boil off, regasification. That is incredibly energy intensive.
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
November 12, 2025 at 11:12 AM
For you scared old people*: LNG oversupply cannot cause hub prices to "crash". It will bring prices down but you still pay for E&P, liquefaction, shipping, boil off, regasification. That is incredibly energy intensive.
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
It just won't set sail if prices can't support that.
*Telegraph readers
Just remember I kind of predicted this.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
November 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Just remember I kind of predicted this.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
Well I didn't, game theory did.
And to repeat: global oil prices do not care one jot about this, there is little to no contagion risk on that front, and one would highly doubt any military contagion risk either.
In fact disrupting Russian oil production and exports (and products) would probably do 'ally' NOCs a favour.
In fact disrupting Russian oil production and exports (and products) would probably do 'ally' NOCs a favour.
November 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
And to repeat: global oil prices do not care one jot about this, there is little to no contagion risk on that front, and one would highly doubt any military contagion risk either.
In fact disrupting Russian oil production and exports (and products) would probably do 'ally' NOCs a favour.
In fact disrupting Russian oil production and exports (and products) would probably do 'ally' NOCs a favour.
The zooming out of the scale loses a lot of impact (i.e. the 2024 trend and peak would have been terrifying without what went before) but 2025 has been relatively calm waters.
Although, spot prices are 110% higher in Nov'25 vs Nov'20. That is lost in the scale too, don't forget that.
Although, spot prices are 110% higher in Nov'25 vs Nov'20. That is lost in the scale too, don't forget that.
November 10, 2025 at 2:05 PM
The zooming out of the scale loses a lot of impact (i.e. the 2024 trend and peak would have been terrifying without what went before) but 2025 has been relatively calm waters.
Although, spot prices are 110% higher in Nov'25 vs Nov'20. That is lost in the scale too, don't forget that.
Although, spot prices are 110% higher in Nov'25 vs Nov'20. That is lost in the scale too, don't forget that.
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 PM
UK front month gas prices are moving into year+ low territory.
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
Not by much, granted, but the December contract (now front month) hasn't closed sub-80p/th since Feb-24 and sits at 79.8-ish now.
Loads of regas capacity, plus loads of supply (and relatively low global competition) equals...
European gas withdrawal season is in full swing!
European gas injection season has been a disaster. Bloomberg was right, grannies freezing in their beds within a week.
European gas injection season has been a disaster. Bloomberg was right, grannies freezing in their beds within a week.
November 7, 2025 at 3:13 PM
European gas withdrawal season is in full swing!
European gas injection season has been a disaster. Bloomberg was right, grannies freezing in their beds within a week.
European gas injection season has been a disaster. Bloomberg was right, grannies freezing in their beds within a week.
European gas withdrawal season is officially* over.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
November 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
European gas withdrawal season is officially* over.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
European gas injection season is so back, baby! Another poke in the eye for Bloomberg's doomer articles.
*This message is in no way endorsed by anyone official, or by anyone who knows anything at all about gas market fundamentals.
Tom Bent (@tombent.bsky.social) on LinkedIn (sadly not posting on BSky) highlighting the shenanigans in the Capacity Market.
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
November 5, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Tom Bent (@tombent.bsky.social) on LinkedIn (sadly not posting on BSky) highlighting the shenanigans in the Capacity Market.
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
I do wonder how long before this invisible plant starts to inflict real tightness and pain (clue: not long, probably 2028).
EU gas prices are relatively subdued at the moment, mostly because LNG supply is plentiful.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
November 3, 2025 at 9:15 AM
EU gas prices are relatively subdued at the moment, mostly because LNG supply is plentiful.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
But interestingly, we're not seeing the UK's LNG infrastructure emerge into a year round role like the Dutch terminals - very quick and dirty look at UK NTS data shows LNG still very much a peak response.
We're in a good to spot to display why co-locating BESS with wind generation is a bit challenging. We've now got 4 straight days (probably more) of pretty much high but flat wind conditions.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
October 31, 2025 at 10:04 AM
We're in a good to spot to display why co-locating BESS with wind generation is a bit challenging. We've now got 4 straight days (probably more) of pretty much high but flat wind conditions.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
That's how wind profiles generally go, so what is the economic role for BESS in that? Basically, none.
The November NBP contract has officially expired. My front-month-gas-prices-are-stuck-at-80p-per-therm psychosis is over! Thank god.
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
October 31, 2025 at 9:48 AM
The November NBP contract has officially expired. My front-month-gas-prices-are-stuck-at-80p-per-therm psychosis is over! Thank god.
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Now let's check in what's going on with the December contract....oh...
Recently posted how I feel Western nations should really, like properly, enable Ukraine to go after Russian energy infra because gas (and oil) prices really don't care, and I've picked up a gaggle of the most mental followers going: the "Heavy Bonker" crew.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
October 30, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Recently posted how I feel Western nations should really, like properly, enable Ukraine to go after Russian energy infra because gas (and oil) prices really don't care, and I've picked up a gaggle of the most mental followers going: the "Heavy Bonker" crew.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
Beats the Ofgem lot, anyway.
There goes the follow up I was going to pitch to Net Zero Watch (after burning kittens) that burning people is better than windmills.
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
October 30, 2025 at 5:49 PM
There goes the follow up I was going to pitch to Net Zero Watch (after burning kittens) that burning people is better than windmills.
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
But other than that the de-pollution case should really feature more highly alongside the decarbonisation.
Source: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
The November contract is in its dying days, but even on its deathbed, it can still haunt me.
October 29, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The November contract is in its dying days, but even on its deathbed, it can still haunt me.
Yep. I am a bit of a numpty (so far) and fixed my winter price as I expected a potentially bumpy end to injection season (which happened) to cause price jitters (didn't happen) like last year (red arrow).
But...
But...
October 29, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yep. I am a bit of a numpty (so far) and fixed my winter price as I expected a potentially bumpy end to injection season (which happened) to cause price jitters (didn't happen) like last year (red arrow).
But...
But...
Longer term, the removal of Russian pipeline gas (light blue) is looking tiny vs the LNG volumes coming to market (yellow).
Of course mostly US *but* a big chunk of this is Qatari expansion, and they are less risk averse than the Americans, they like long term off take contracts, and guess what...
Of course mostly US *but* a big chunk of this is Qatari expansion, and they are less risk averse than the Americans, they like long term off take contracts, and guess what...
October 29, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Longer term, the removal of Russian pipeline gas (light blue) is looking tiny vs the LNG volumes coming to market (yellow).
Of course mostly US *but* a big chunk of this is Qatari expansion, and they are less risk averse than the Americans, they like long term off take contracts, and guess what...
Of course mostly US *but* a big chunk of this is Qatari expansion, and they are less risk averse than the Americans, they like long term off take contracts, and guess what...
And on falling demand, in the near term a queue is building of low pressure systems which means generally windy conditions for the next couple of weeks at least (caveat: I'm no Michael Fish) but traders are wary that gas to power burn is going to struggle a bit.
(21 GW in BMRS for GB on the 31st)
(21 GW in BMRS for GB on the 31st)
October 29, 2025 at 9:43 AM
And on falling demand, in the near term a queue is building of low pressure systems which means generally windy conditions for the next couple of weeks at least (caveat: I'm no Michael Fish) but traders are wary that gas to power burn is going to struggle a bit.
(21 GW in BMRS for GB on the 31st)
(21 GW in BMRS for GB on the 31st)
Also, because LNG is a global market, it's worth injecting context as to why traders are so laid back about this winter. Let's take Japan, LNG has become so expensive that the long term contracts are not worth it vs restarting nuclear + coal (eugh) so reloading is happening and less renewals.
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Also, because LNG is a global market, it's worth injecting context as to why traders are so laid back about this winter. Let's take Japan, LNG has become so expensive that the long term contracts are not worth it vs restarting nuclear + coal (eugh) so reloading is happening and less renewals.
We know this because price action is utterly dead (speaking of which, I have probably bored you to death pointing that out) and if there was a winter supply worry, prices would be reacting to draw more gas into storage - below is the Feb'26 contract, no signs of spread carnage there.
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
We know this because price action is utterly dead (speaking of which, I have probably bored you to death pointing that out) and if there was a winter supply worry, prices would be reacting to draw more gas into storage - below is the Feb'26 contract, no signs of spread carnage there.
Injections into the European gas storage system have been tiny in October. Certainly lower than I expected.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Injections into the European gas storage system have been tiny in October. Certainly lower than I expected.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
But it's not because the gas doesn't exist, it's because traders are choosing not to use the capacity in light of falling demand and more profitable on demand LNG than contracted pipeline.
Anyone who isn't a lobbyist for the offshore wind sector reads this as good news, not a missed opportunity. If you can't get in the budget, get back to the drawing board, get your costs down and come back.
Supporting a supply chain by buying at any cost was an AR1 - AR3 job, we have to move on.
Supporting a supply chain by buying at any cost was an AR1 - AR3 job, we have to move on.
October 28, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Anyone who isn't a lobbyist for the offshore wind sector reads this as good news, not a missed opportunity. If you can't get in the budget, get back to the drawing board, get your costs down and come back.
Supporting a supply chain by buying at any cost was an AR1 - AR3 job, we have to move on.
Supporting a supply chain by buying at any cost was an AR1 - AR3 job, we have to move on.
2) The wave of US LNG is here, and there is no one to buy it.
OK, a bit of artistic licence here, clearly EU off take and send out is rising but the Asian markets, long touted as the true growth engines in LNG demand, are not at the table as much as thought when FID was taken on this lot.
OK, a bit of artistic licence here, clearly EU off take and send out is rising but the Asian markets, long touted as the true growth engines in LNG demand, are not at the table as much as thought when FID was taken on this lot.
October 27, 2025 at 11:27 AM
2) The wave of US LNG is here, and there is no one to buy it.
OK, a bit of artistic licence here, clearly EU off take and send out is rising but the Asian markets, long touted as the true growth engines in LNG demand, are not at the table as much as thought when FID was taken on this lot.
OK, a bit of artistic licence here, clearly EU off take and send out is rising but the Asian markets, long touted as the true growth engines in LNG demand, are not at the table as much as thought when FID was taken on this lot.