Gas used to be *all* weather. Now, not so much, but you are right: we're swinging from above average temps, to in line/slightly below for November so prices will reflect that.

Today / Week from today (colours vs average)

You could move the commitment from now, to the future, and use the money as a hook and tease to incentivise repowering - all at once!

Lower bills now, investors have certainty, payments hopefully when commodity costs have cooled, you get shiny new turbines. Win, win win?

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

You can read the consultation here that covers two approaches to move to CPI 1) immediate switch-a-roo or 2) freezing indexation and realignment with CPI overtime.

But, I think there is a third way...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6904d6...

It should also be noted that the last US administration was relatively normal in how it dealt with markets.

This one will just play god for fun.

Energy security from LNG is not something one should rely on.

Which is another reason those saying that market prices will 'crash' or significantly reduce will probably be right-ish in the short term, but we have already seen the last US administration go after LNG exports due to domestic effects, and it could easily happen again - and prices horribly spike.

And what is fairly interesting, is that the relative European calm, is now essentially being paid for by the American consumer.

US nat gas spot prices up 50%.

This is not all LNG, in fact might only be a small amount (probably more data centre demand), but politically it will hit soon enough.

Japan is not replacing all legacy volumes either...

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

Hmmm, not sure I would use curtailed as the right term.

But essentially you would be looking at say local hub pricing plus $1-$2 per mmbtu for the logistics of it all.

So if you are going for US LNG, it isn't going lower than $5-7/mmbtu which is probably about half of current EU gas price.

I can't particularly argue with that, probably right in terms of ball park.

Would move spot to 35-40p/th range which is hardly a collapse on historical grounds.

Of course wouldn't get away from the volatility of LNG, not going to be anywhere near as much long term 'pipeline like' contracts.

I got a free(ish) high end laptop out an old employer on it. They didn't do something regulatory speaking around providing credit or something so couldn't legally ask me to pay back £1000+ when I left the job with a large whack of the SS amount remaining. Result.

Also, was literally talking about this trend 10 months ago.

The Telegraph is agile, I'll give them that.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

If you fancy holding your nose long enough to read the article, the best bit is the referring to NESO as a 'government quango'.

Just brilliant.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

PHEVs do nothing but show how effective lobbying can be, as well as how good incumbents are at getting junk messages through to consumers.

I never said oil price would drop to zero. I said reserves could be valued at zero. If your cash cost of production is > the price of oil, your reserves are valueless (give or take).

I think the market fluctuation point is going to very much rise in prominence. It's all very well and good having a price spike every decade and dealing with that (e.g. 1970s - well the French didn't do that, they legged it to nuclear) but if it happens every 5 years?

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It's not *all* going to be at $0. Just the reserves with the highest cash cost of production, so Saudi Arabia will be producing until the last hydrocarbon is burnt....everyone else, you're in trouble.

Yep. Should have started the project 20 years ago.

Well Iranian exports seem to be ticking up quite substantially so probably more action to come there too.

Plaid Cymru enters the chat.