Todd Tucker
@toddntucker.com
Director, Industrial Policy & Trade, @RooseveltInstitute.org, @RooseveltForward.org. Political scientist of economic transitions, administrative states, Bidenomics, Trumpnomics. Fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School. PhD.
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Todd Tucker
@toddntucker.com
· 11d
As the Supreme Court Hears Arguments on Trump’s “Emergency” Tariffs, Few Good Outcomes Await - Roosevelt Institute
In a new brief, Roosevelt Institute’s director of industrial policy and trade Todd N. Tucker explores the legal and political stakes of Trump’s emergency tariffs as SCOTUS prepares its ruling, which w...
rooseveltinstitute.org
NEW from me @rooseveltinstitute.org: As the Supreme Court Hears Arguments on Trump’s “Emergency” Tariffs, Few Good Outcomes Await.
This explainer goes through the 4 main options for the Court next week, each of which comes with drawbacks or hurdles.
Thread🧵
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
This explainer goes through the 4 main options for the Court next week, each of which comes with drawbacks or hurdles.
Thread🧵
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
The Post (me and @kcrowebasspro.bsky.social) analyzed the social media posts and appearances of prominent politicians across the country.
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
November 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The Post (me and @kcrowebasspro.bsky.social) analyzed the social media posts and appearances of prominent politicians across the country.
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
"For all his ardently laissez-faire rhetoric, Reagan undertook a range of measures that resembled “managed trade,” the concept advocated by industrial policy champions like Thurow, Reich, and Democratic congressman Richard Gephardt." - @henrymjtonks.bsky.social.
www.compactmag.com/article/what...
www.compactmag.com/article/what...
What Trump Got Right About Reagan and Tariffs
On October 16, the province of Ontario released a television ad that showed Ronald Reagan criticizing “tariffs or trade barriers of any kind” in a 1987 address.
www.compactmag.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:09 PM
"For all his ardently laissez-faire rhetoric, Reagan undertook a range of measures that resembled “managed trade,” the concept advocated by industrial policy champions like Thurow, Reich, and Democratic congressman Richard Gephardt." - @henrymjtonks.bsky.social.
www.compactmag.com/article/what...
www.compactmag.com/article/what...
WITA podcast argues that the strongest outcome for plaintiffs in the Trump tariff case at SCOTUS is: IEEPA expansive delegation has to be ready in the context of more detailed delegation in trade statutes.
But.. Existence of latter is why the trade war will go on!
www.wita.org/podcasts/ep-...
But.. Existence of latter is why the trade war will go on!
www.wita.org/podcasts/ep-...
Ep. 18 – WITA’s Friday Exchange: Knives Out for Tariffs – Dissecting the Supreme Court Debate on IEEPA - WITA
Watch or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Former Trade Negotiators Discuss This Week’s Tariff and Trade Developments. No one understands the dynamics with key U.S. trading partners better than the...
www.wita.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
WITA podcast argues that the strongest outcome for plaintiffs in the Trump tariff case at SCOTUS is: IEEPA expansive delegation has to be ready in the context of more detailed delegation in trade statutes.
But.. Existence of latter is why the trade war will go on!
www.wita.org/podcasts/ep-...
But.. Existence of latter is why the trade war will go on!
www.wita.org/podcasts/ep-...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
Business group: “Obviously the Supreme Court decision is very important, but we also are realists, and we understand that … President Trump has probably several backup plans here... This may be a battlefield victory, but I’m not sure ... we’ll win [the war].”
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
'A battlefield victory': Trump's tariff critics doubt they'll win the war, even if Supreme Court steps in
The president's trade agenda took a beating from the justices and Democrats alike this week. Republicans and business groups still don't expect him to back down.
www.politico.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Business group: “Obviously the Supreme Court decision is very important, but we also are realists, and we understand that … President Trump has probably several backup plans here... This may be a battlefield victory, but I’m not sure ... we’ll win [the war].”
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
This article shows a possible trajectory for child care politics.
Where we are at: a wealth of sociological data /stories that end up butting into questions about individual choices.
Where we could be: "we shouldn't have to pay a second rent to live. That's class war."
www.ft.com/content/46c1...
Where we are at: a wealth of sociological data /stories that end up butting into questions about individual choices.
Where we could be: "we shouldn't have to pay a second rent to live. That's class war."
www.ft.com/content/46c1...
How New York’s affordability crisis reshaped its politics
Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral upset reflects growing frustration with soaring living costs
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:27 PM
This article shows a possible trajectory for child care politics.
Where we are at: a wealth of sociological data /stories that end up butting into questions about individual choices.
Where we could be: "we shouldn't have to pay a second rent to live. That's class war."
www.ft.com/content/46c1...
Where we are at: a wealth of sociological data /stories that end up butting into questions about individual choices.
Where we could be: "we shouldn't have to pay a second rent to live. That's class war."
www.ft.com/content/46c1...
Agree with @adamliptak.bsky.social
@kateshaw.bsky.social and others here: Trump's rhetoric - and his solicitor general's insertion of same into the brief - makes it much easier for justices to rule against him over the tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
@kateshaw.bsky.social and others here: Trump's rhetoric - and his solicitor general's insertion of same into the brief - makes it much easier for justices to rule against him over the tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
Did Trump’s Supreme Court Tariffs Brief Include a Strategic Blunder?
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Agree with @adamliptak.bsky.social
@kateshaw.bsky.social and others here: Trump's rhetoric - and his solicitor general's insertion of same into the brief - makes it much easier for justices to rule against him over the tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
@kateshaw.bsky.social and others here: Trump's rhetoric - and his solicitor general's insertion of same into the brief - makes it much easier for justices to rule against him over the tariffs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
In its limited, cabined, semi-nuked-and-therefore-always-potentially-further-nukable contemporary state, the filibuster has become the Senate's dark matter, at once powering and obscuring behavior on both sides.
November 10, 2025 at 4:48 AM
In its limited, cabined, semi-nuked-and-therefore-always-potentially-further-nukable contemporary state, the filibuster has become the Senate's dark matter, at once powering and obscuring behavior on both sides.
Reposted by Todd Tucker
If Democrats get no concessions, then what they are doing is casting blame on themselves for the shutdown,
November 9, 2025 at 8:55 PM
If Democrats get no concessions, then what they are doing is casting blame on themselves for the shutdown,
Reposted by Todd Tucker
If you doubt this, just imagine what the effect would be of transferring all Senate responsibilities to the House. Which, incidentally, has been a proposed constitutional amendment for many many years: www.senate.gov/artandhistor... and www.jstor.org/stable/1065399
November 9, 2025 at 4:54 AM
If you doubt this, just imagine what the effect would be of transferring all Senate responsibilities to the House. Which, incidentally, has been a proposed constitutional amendment for many many years: www.senate.gov/artandhistor... and www.jstor.org/stable/1065399
Reposted by Todd Tucker
I was at the Sierra Club during the period described in this article and although I have my criticisms, it gets the issues in the Club fundamentally wrong. A 🧵
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
The Sierra Club Embraced Social Justice. Then It Tore Itself Apart.
www.nytimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:53 PM
I was at the Sierra Club during the period described in this article and although I have my criticisms, it gets the issues in the Club fundamentally wrong. A 🧵
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
.
AI godfather: we should mandate liability insurance for AI companies, as is done with developers of nuclear power plants.
Asked why companies won't self impose such guardrails, Bengio said: “I don’t know, but I don’t want to bet the future of my children on it.”
www.ft.com/content/181f...
AI godfather: we should mandate liability insurance for AI companies, as is done with developers of nuclear power plants.
Asked why companies won't self impose such guardrails, Bengio said: “I don’t know, but I don’t want to bet the future of my children on it.”
www.ft.com/content/181f...
Force AI firms to buy nuclear-style insurance, says Yoshua Bengio
Turing Prize winner urges governments to require tech groups to cover catastrophic outcomes and fund safety research
www.ft.com
November 8, 2025 at 3:25 PM
.
AI godfather: we should mandate liability insurance for AI companies, as is done with developers of nuclear power plants.
Asked why companies won't self impose such guardrails, Bengio said: “I don’t know, but I don’t want to bet the future of my children on it.”
www.ft.com/content/181f...
AI godfather: we should mandate liability insurance for AI companies, as is done with developers of nuclear power plants.
Asked why companies won't self impose such guardrails, Bengio said: “I don’t know, but I don’t want to bet the future of my children on it.”
www.ft.com/content/181f...
"The government has provided very good tax incentives that improve the rate of return, but that doesn’t address overrun risk, that just improves the rate of return. So, I do think the government will have a role to play.”
Bechtel to @jamiesmythft.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/74d1...
Bechtel to @jamiesmythft.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/74d1...
Bechtel boss urges US government to share risk of nuclear build-out
Danger of cost overruns is obstacle to financing Donald Trump’s plan for 10 new reactors by 2030
www.ft.com
November 8, 2025 at 3:18 PM
"The government has provided very good tax incentives that improve the rate of return, but that doesn’t address overrun risk, that just improves the rate of return. So, I do think the government will have a role to play.”
Bechtel to @jamiesmythft.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/74d1...
Bechtel to @jamiesmythft.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/74d1...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
The Supreme Court’s landmark tariffs case is underway—and our @toddntucker.com is breaking it down.
One takeaway already: under a broad reading of presidential power in IEEPA, future administrations could use “emergency” powers not just for tariffs, but for climate action.
https://reut.rs/4qME5Nn
One takeaway already: under a broad reading of presidential power in IEEPA, future administrations could use “emergency” powers not just for tariffs, but for climate action.
https://reut.rs/4qME5Nn
November 6, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The Supreme Court’s landmark tariffs case is underway—and our @toddntucker.com is breaking it down.
One takeaway already: under a broad reading of presidential power in IEEPA, future administrations could use “emergency” powers not just for tariffs, but for climate action.
https://reut.rs/4qME5Nn
One takeaway already: under a broad reading of presidential power in IEEPA, future administrations could use “emergency” powers not just for tariffs, but for climate action.
https://reut.rs/4qME5Nn
Reposted by Todd Tucker
My book in progress shows inflation was disconnected from consumer sentiment under Biden to a ridiculous degree. Republicans drove down sentiment, the media did too, independents too. Had consumer sentiment reflected the actual economy to usual extent, Harris wins by 4 points.
November 7, 2025 at 2:43 AM
My book in progress shows inflation was disconnected from consumer sentiment under Biden to a ridiculous degree. Republicans drove down sentiment, the media did too, independents too. Had consumer sentiment reflected the actual economy to usual extent, Harris wins by 4 points.
Reposted by Todd Tucker
Under Gorsuch's line of argument, any law that lacks a sunset clause could violate the non-delegation doctrine. That's a lot of laws!
Alito ribbed the plaintiff's attorney - Obama's former solicitor general - for helping cement anti-regulatory doctrines.
Alito ribbed the plaintiff's attorney - Obama's former solicitor general - for helping cement anti-regulatory doctrines.
November 6, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Under Gorsuch's line of argument, any law that lacks a sunset clause could violate the non-delegation doctrine. That's a lot of laws!
Alito ribbed the plaintiff's attorney - Obama's former solicitor general - for helping cement anti-regulatory doctrines.
Alito ribbed the plaintiff's attorney - Obama's former solicitor general - for helping cement anti-regulatory doctrines.
Reposted by Todd Tucker
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
The Mayor of New York only makes $260k. I bet there are police that make more than that in NY with overtime.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
November 7, 2025 at 3:42 PM
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
"It’s hard not to conclude that (Cheney's) courage in standing up to Trump is compromised by his seeming failure to reckon with the ways that his take-no-prisoners approach to politics and governance helped pave the way for Trump’s abuses."
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
How Dick Cheney’s Lack of Restraint Paved the Way for Donald Trump
The former vice president wanted to strengthen the presidency. He didn’t see where it would lead.
www.politico.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:42 PM
"It’s hard not to conclude that (Cheney's) courage in standing up to Trump is compromised by his seeming failure to reckon with the ways that his take-no-prisoners approach to politics and governance helped pave the way for Trump’s abuses."
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
"Bessent said last month that support for Argentina was part of a new “economic Monroe doctrine”, as the US seeks to reassert its influence in Latin America and halt China’s rapid expansion."
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
Javier Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso freely
Libertarian president vows to double down on transformation of country’s economy
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
"Bessent said last month that support for Argentina was part of a new “economic Monroe doctrine”, as the US seeks to reassert its influence in Latin America and halt China’s rapid expansion."
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
SCOTUS tariff case transcript up!
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
November 6, 2025 at 5:20 PM
SCOTUS tariff case transcript up!
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
Dan Driscoll and I had some thoughts: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
The Three Technologies Disrupting the Global Order
Mark Blyth & Daniel Driscoll examine the geopolitical implications of inexpensive drones, phones, and solar panels.
www.project-syndicate.org
November 7, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Dan Driscoll and I had some thoughts: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
SCOTUS tariff case transcript up!
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
November 6, 2025 at 5:20 PM
SCOTUS tariff case transcript up!
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
A lot of the coverage painted the arguments as a clear loss for Trump and a clear win for the plaintiffs.
I think it's not so clear.
Here's a thread with a few of my takeaways.🧵
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
Reposted by Todd Tucker
Seeing deranged takes using Jared Golden's retirement to blame progressives or whatever.
Ignore them and read what Golden actually wrote. He is burned out and afraid for his family.
This isn't some intraparty Dem strategy fight, it's a bleak reflection of our society getting worse.
Ignore them and read what Golden actually wrote. He is burned out and afraid for his family.
This isn't some intraparty Dem strategy fight, it's a bleak reflection of our society getting worse.
Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why.
"What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."
www.bangordailynews.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Seeing deranged takes using Jared Golden's retirement to blame progressives or whatever.
Ignore them and read what Golden actually wrote. He is burned out and afraid for his family.
This isn't some intraparty Dem strategy fight, it's a bleak reflection of our society getting worse.
Ignore them and read what Golden actually wrote. He is burned out and afraid for his family.
This isn't some intraparty Dem strategy fight, it's a bleak reflection of our society getting worse.
Sovereign wealth fund has to suspend ethics rules in order to keep investing in US tech cos.
"Norwegian politics should not be guided by Trump’s fear-mongering. I am concerned that the Norwegian government is now making decisions to accommodate him and tech oligarchs,"
www.ft.com/content/12a5...
"Norwegian politics should not be guided by Trump’s fear-mongering. I am concerned that the Norwegian government is now making decisions to accommodate him and tech oligarchs,"
www.ft.com/content/12a5...
Norway suspends $2.1tn oil fund’s ethics rules to avoid selling Big Tech stakes
Jens Stoltenberg says move will avoid forced sale of shares in Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet over their work for Israel
www.ft.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Sovereign wealth fund has to suspend ethics rules in order to keep investing in US tech cos.
"Norwegian politics should not be guided by Trump’s fear-mongering. I am concerned that the Norwegian government is now making decisions to accommodate him and tech oligarchs,"
www.ft.com/content/12a5...
"Norwegian politics should not be guided by Trump’s fear-mongering. I am concerned that the Norwegian government is now making decisions to accommodate him and tech oligarchs,"
www.ft.com/content/12a5...
SCOTUS is hearing case against Trump's tariffs. Listen along! I'll offer some thoughts as we go along.
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
November 5, 2025 at 3:08 PM
SCOTUS is hearing case against Trump's tariffs. Listen along! I'll offer some thoughts as we go along.
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...