Kevin McKay
@taniwhakev.bsky.social
Modern Monetary Theory, Steady State / Ecological Economics, Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification, Steve Keen & other heterodox economists, energy, planetary boundaries; climate change, music, fitness, sport, family most of all.
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Few food price headlines today. Remember: We import most of our food and the price we pay for the stuff we produce is driven by export prices (e.g. butter).
Long-term contracts and delivery lags mean that our food prices follow global food price changes with about 12 months delay.
Long-term contracts and delivery lags mean that our food prices follow global food price changes with about 12 months delay.
April 15, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Few food price headlines today. Remember: We import most of our food and the price we pay for the stuff we produce is driven by export prices (e.g. butter).
Long-term contracts and delivery lags mean that our food prices follow global food price changes with about 12 months delay.
Long-term contracts and delivery lags mean that our food prices follow global food price changes with about 12 months delay.
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Good article describing how RBNZ over-reacted spectacularly to the global inflation episode of 2022/23 and unnecessarily crushed tens of thousands of our jobs (aided and abetted by Govt in 23/24). Couple of things missing in the comparison though... (1/n)
February 12, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Good article describing how RBNZ over-reacted spectacularly to the global inflation episode of 2022/23 and unnecessarily crushed tens of thousands of our jobs (aided and abetted by Govt in 23/24). Couple of things missing in the comparison though... (1/n)
Reposted by Kevin McKay
If Govt debt is a private sector asset, how are our 'grandkids going to have to pay it back'? What does that even mean? When Govt debt as % of GDP reduced through the 50s and 60s (while we built absolutely shit loads of infra) did the kids suffer? Anything we can learn from that era?!? [8/n]
February 7, 2025 at 6:45 AM
If Govt debt is a private sector asset, how are our 'grandkids going to have to pay it back'? What does that even mean? When Govt debt as % of GDP reduced through the 50s and 60s (while we built absolutely shit loads of infra) did the kids suffer? Anything we can learn from that era?!? [8/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Another myth 🧵 This one is tricky as it challenges a neoliberal paradigm that a lot of progressives have adopted. The myth of 'taxpayer funding'. Let's take this one slowly and use some monumentally crap pictures to illustrate (I'm not proud). [1/n]
February 7, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Another myth 🧵 This one is tricky as it challenges a neoliberal paradigm that a lot of progressives have adopted. The myth of 'taxpayer funding'. Let's take this one slowly and use some monumentally crap pictures to illustrate (I'm not proud). [1/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
But, knowing that Govt is not fiscally constrained changes things. The question becomes 'how will we do this important thing?' rather than 'how will we find the money?' Eg, if we need to spend billions on green infra, how can taxes be used to free up the resources required to do the work? [10/n]
February 7, 2025 at 6:45 AM
But, knowing that Govt is not fiscally constrained changes things. The question becomes 'how will we do this important thing?' rather than 'how will we find the money?' Eg, if we need to spend billions on green infra, how can taxes be used to free up the resources required to do the work? [10/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Stay tuned next month to find out if Wellington gets less shit at retaining jobs than Auckland. Exciting times. [Ends]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Stay tuned next month to find out if Wellington gets less shit at retaining jobs than Auckland. Exciting times. [Ends]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
It looks like Wellington is turning a corner. Whether it into a ferocious headwind remains to be seen. [8/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
It looks like Wellington is turning a corner. Whether it into a ferocious headwind remains to be seen. [8/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
End on some positives (kinda). The seasonally adjusted data shows some moderate improvements for Nov and Dec 24. I suspect that this is because the seasonal adjustment is tuned to better times, but we'll see over the next few months. [7/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
End on some positives (kinda). The seasonally adjusted data shows some moderate improvements for Nov and Dec 24. I suspect that this is because the seasonal adjustment is tuned to better times, but we'll see over the next few months. [7/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
The net result was thousands of young people getting out-competed for entry-level and low-paid jobs. Again, you can see the turning point in May 23. Indeed, you could at the time.
NOTE: I will block anybody that talks negatively about the new people arriving here to find work. Seriously. [6/n]
NOTE: I will block anybody that talks negatively about the new people arriving here to find work. Seriously. [6/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The net result was thousands of young people getting out-competed for entry-level and low-paid jobs. Again, you can see the turning point in May 23. Indeed, you could at the time.
NOTE: I will block anybody that talks negatively about the new people arriving here to find work. Seriously. [6/n]
NOTE: I will block anybody that talks negatively about the new people arriving here to find work. Seriously. [6/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Worth a look at that surge of vacancy-filling in 2023 when we opened the borders. Sadly, we ran out of jobs for the people arriving (I've circled the moment in May 2023)... and any extra demand created by our new friends was easily offset by all of that RBNZ and Govt squishing. [5/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Worth a look at that surge of vacancy-filling in 2023 when we opened the borders. Sadly, we ran out of jobs for the people arriving (I've circled the moment in May 2023)... and any extra demand created by our new friends was easily offset by all of that RBNZ and Govt squishing. [5/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Oh, you know jobs that build and make stuff. Nothing to worry about there. Mind you, losing 35 construction jobs per day for a year seems a bit careless when you have a massive infra and housing deficit. But, I guess the only alternative is communism and bread rationing, so, oh well. [4/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Oh, you know jobs that build and make stuff. Nothing to worry about there. Mind you, losing 35 construction jobs per day for a year seems a bit careless when you have a massive infra and housing deficit. But, I guess the only alternative is communism and bread rationing, so, oh well. [4/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
We're still running around 27,000 jobs down on the same month last year - despite increasing our working-age population by around 35,000 people. Obviously, this *is* primarily a private sector recession - it's the jobs that depend on demand that go when times are tough. Like what? [3/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
We're still running around 27,000 jobs down on the same month last year - despite increasing our working-age population by around 35,000 people. Obviously, this *is* primarily a private sector recession - it's the jobs that depend on demand that go when times are tough. Like what? [3/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Here's another view of the 'accrued' earnings data. Stats NZ do clever stuff to adjust for when paydays fall etc. Anyway, same picture - total earnings have been falling in real terms for over a year. Less earnings, less spending, fewer jobs. Talking of which... [2/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Here's another view of the 'accrued' earnings data. Stats NZ do clever stuff to adjust for when paydays fall etc. Anyway, same picture - total earnings have been falling in real terms for over a year. Less earnings, less spending, fewer jobs. Talking of which... [2/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Monthly jobs 🧵
Here's total earnings adjusted for population and inflation. We got used to things getting better until something hit in 2020.
Now look really closely at 2021/22. See how we had it too good? Thankfully RBNZ and Govt took action to squish earnings (shame they forgot to stop) [1/n]
Here's total earnings adjusted for population and inflation. We got used to things getting better until something hit in 2020.
Now look really closely at 2021/22. See how we had it too good? Thankfully RBNZ and Govt took action to squish earnings (shame they forgot to stop) [1/n]
January 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Monthly jobs 🧵
Here's total earnings adjusted for population and inflation. We got used to things getting better until something hit in 2020.
Now look really closely at 2021/22. See how we had it too good? Thankfully RBNZ and Govt took action to squish earnings (shame they forgot to stop) [1/n]
Here's total earnings adjusted for population and inflation. We got used to things getting better until something hit in 2020.
Now look really closely at 2021/22. See how we had it too good? Thankfully RBNZ and Govt took action to squish earnings (shame they forgot to stop) [1/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
This honestly feels like a weird thing to say. Like already National has seen declining popularity, and the economy isn't looking like it'll give them a great starting point for the next election.
Do asset sales poll well? Surely not?
Do asset sales poll well? Surely not?
January 28, 2025 at 1:13 AM
This honestly feels like a weird thing to say. Like already National has seen declining popularity, and the economy isn't looking like it'll give them a great starting point for the next election.
Do asset sales poll well? Surely not?
Do asset sales poll well? Surely not?
Reposted by Kevin McKay
NO ASSET SALES, NO PRIVATISATION
January 28, 2025 at 12:21 AM
NO ASSET SALES, NO PRIVATISATION
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Now there can legitimately be some polling on asset sales, Curia will be doing it so I certainly hope Labour will have Talbot Mills doing the same!
I predict around 70% of New Zealanders are against asset sales but lets get it all out on the table well before they start their campaign #NZPol
I predict around 70% of New Zealanders are against asset sales but lets get it all out on the table well before they start their campaign #NZPol
January 28, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Now there can legitimately be some polling on asset sales, Curia will be doing it so I certainly hope Labour will have Talbot Mills doing the same!
I predict around 70% of New Zealanders are against asset sales but lets get it all out on the table well before they start their campaign #NZPol
I predict around 70% of New Zealanders are against asset sales but lets get it all out on the table well before they start their campaign #NZPol
Reposted by Kevin McKay
You know what's bizarre is that asset sales are hugely unpopular even among National voters. No one likes them except libertarian fuckwits
January 27, 2025 at 11:07 PM
You know what's bizarre is that asset sales are hugely unpopular even among National voters. No one likes them except libertarian fuckwits
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Little 🧵 to supplement yesterday's benefits update.
First up, let's have a look what's going on with jobseekers numbers. Yes, they're going up (obviously) - now a full 70,000 above the Govt's fricken target. But, what's happening behind the headline? [1/n]
First up, let's have a look what's going on with jobseekers numbers. Yes, they're going up (obviously) - now a full 70,000 above the Govt's fricken target. But, what's happening behind the headline? [1/n]
January 26, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Little 🧵 to supplement yesterday's benefits update.
First up, let's have a look what's going on with jobseekers numbers. Yes, they're going up (obviously) - now a full 70,000 above the Govt's fricken target. But, what's happening behind the headline? [1/n]
First up, let's have a look what's going on with jobseekers numbers. Yes, they're going up (obviously) - now a full 70,000 above the Govt's fricken target. But, what's happening behind the headline? [1/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
We can't commit ecocide fast enough to stop these lines diverging. The gap between the yellow and pink lines is the NZ wealth we transfer offshore each year. This basically gets deducted from our GDP. We hear a lot about growing the yellow line, but shit all about reducing the pink line. Wonder why.
January 22, 2025 at 5:49 AM
We can't commit ecocide fast enough to stop these lines diverging. The gap between the yellow and pink lines is the NZ wealth we transfer offshore each year. This basically gets deducted from our GDP. We hear a lot about growing the yellow line, but shit all about reducing the pink line. Wonder why.
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Weekly jobs data day - how's growth going?
Well, we're 40,000 jobs below the same week last year despite adding well over 50,000 people to the working-age population. Can someone help me out with the maths? Is that good? [🧵/n]
Well, we're 40,000 jobs below the same week last year despite adding well over 50,000 people to the working-age population. Can someone help me out with the maths? Is that good? [🧵/n]
January 22, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Weekly jobs data day - how's growth going?
Well, we're 40,000 jobs below the same week last year despite adding well over 50,000 people to the working-age population. Can someone help me out with the maths? Is that good? [🧵/n]
Well, we're 40,000 jobs below the same week last year despite adding well over 50,000 people to the working-age population. Can someone help me out with the maths? Is that good? [🧵/n]
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Still confused by talk of a 'vibecession'. Over the last three years we have had:
- wages falling behind the cost of living
- benefit numbers up 50,000 (14%)
- 50,000 more people are unemployed (up 55%)
- underutilisation is up 90,000 (34%)
- company liquidations, exodus, we've stopped building etc
- wages falling behind the cost of living
- benefit numbers up 50,000 (14%)
- 50,000 more people are unemployed (up 55%)
- underutilisation is up 90,000 (34%)
- company liquidations, exodus, we've stopped building etc
January 20, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Still confused by talk of a 'vibecession'. Over the last three years we have had:
- wages falling behind the cost of living
- benefit numbers up 50,000 (14%)
- 50,000 more people are unemployed (up 55%)
- underutilisation is up 90,000 (34%)
- company liquidations, exodus, we've stopped building etc
- wages falling behind the cost of living
- benefit numbers up 50,000 (14%)
- 50,000 more people are unemployed (up 55%)
- underutilisation is up 90,000 (34%)
- company liquidations, exodus, we've stopped building etc
Reposted by Kevin McKay
January 14, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Reposted by Kevin McKay
Massive news in the end of November banking data...
Monthly interest payments on mortgages actually went down! A full -0.18% reduction month-on-month or a whopping $3m off the $1.95 billion monthly interest bill. Praise be. [🧵1/n]
Monthly interest payments on mortgages actually went down! A full -0.18% reduction month-on-month or a whopping $3m off the $1.95 billion monthly interest bill. Praise be. [🧵1/n]
January 13, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Massive news in the end of November banking data...
Monthly interest payments on mortgages actually went down! A full -0.18% reduction month-on-month or a whopping $3m off the $1.95 billion monthly interest bill. Praise be. [🧵1/n]
Monthly interest payments on mortgages actually went down! A full -0.18% reduction month-on-month or a whopping $3m off the $1.95 billion monthly interest bill. Praise be. [🧵1/n]