Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
Ugly graphs, insights and outbursts. NZ.
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Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
· Dec 21
Whose fault is this recession? Let's rank the villains for giggles 🧵
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Hmm, so inflation is 3% and Govt is paying a touch under 2.9% interest on its debt. Govt is also getting a fat return on its financial assets... which outweigh its debts by around $70bn. Meanwhile, we can't afford to invest in the country and Treasury are sounding alarm bells!
November 9, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Hmm, so inflation is 3% and Govt is paying a touch under 2.9% interest on its debt. Govt is also getting a fat return on its financial assets... which outweigh its debts by around $70bn. Meanwhile, we can't afford to invest in the country and Treasury are sounding alarm bells!
I'm old enough to remember Treasury officials setting Govt finance within a macro context. Now we get silly 'geeing up the ghouls' scare stories. For a start, all the OECD countries on the left side of this chart have run Govt deficits on average since 2010. It's normal. [🧵1/n]
November 8, 2025 at 8:28 PM
I'm old enough to remember Treasury officials setting Govt finance within a macro context. Now we get silly 'geeing up the ghouls' scare stories. For a start, all the OECD countries on the left side of this chart have run Govt deficits on average since 2010. It's normal. [🧵1/n]
Reposted by Musical Chairs
The Canadien Government has made an ad about the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG terminal & PRGT Pipeline, and it's surprsingly honest and informative.
Honest Government Ad | Ksi Lisims & PRGT Pipeline
YouTube video by thejuicemedia
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:06 AM
The Canadien Government has made an ad about the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG terminal & PRGT Pipeline, and it's surprsingly honest and informative.
Reposted by Musical Chairs
Paywall lifted: At every turn, the Govt has opted for whatever would actually lead to more pollution and a warmer world – even if it costs more, jeopardises NZ’s reputation, overturns a campaign promise or clashes with the Govt’s other priorities.
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
Govt's climate strategy: Let it burn
Comment: The Government has relentlessly pursued policies that boost climate pollution – even if they cost more or jeopardise NZ's reputation, Marc Daalder writes
newsroom.co.nz
November 7, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Paywall lifted: At every turn, the Govt has opted for whatever would actually lead to more pollution and a warmer world – even if it costs more, jeopardises NZ’s reputation, overturns a campaign promise or clashes with the Govt’s other priorities.
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
Regular reminder that RBNZ publish real data on mortgage costs. National and the bank reckonomists love to talk about the costs of *new* mortgages only, but what drives the cost of living is what kiwis *actually* pay on our $384bn mortgage pile. Here's the real data... [🧵1/n]
November 7, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Regular reminder that RBNZ publish real data on mortgage costs. National and the bank reckonomists love to talk about the costs of *new* mortgages only, but what drives the cost of living is what kiwis *actually* pay on our $384bn mortgage pile. Here's the real data... [🧵1/n]
Lol, imagine thinking you could simply restart investment after crashing the construction sector and holding back loads of work. Fafo.
November 7, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Lol, imagine thinking you could simply restart investment after crashing the construction sector and holding back loads of work. Fafo.
RBNZ to the Waitangi Tribunal...
November 5, 2025 at 7:33 PM
RBNZ to the Waitangi Tribunal...
I'll vote for whoever sets a target to get youth unemployment back below 10% in one year. I can't do ten years of centrist, round the next corner drivel. Waiting for businesses to get desperate enough to give young, disengaged or disabled people a job is fkng stupid. There is loads that needs doing.
November 5, 2025 at 7:30 AM
I'll vote for whoever sets a target to get youth unemployment back below 10% in one year. I can't do ten years of centrist, round the next corner drivel. Waiting for businesses to get desperate enough to give young, disengaged or disabled people a job is fkng stupid. There is loads that needs doing.
The trickle down economy is a real thing but it gets described badly. Here's how it actually works:
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
November 3, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The trickle down economy is a real thing but it gets described badly. Here's how it actually works:
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
Another signal that we are about to have another rollercoaster climb in the housing market... or will that steady downward trend in investment (pink) since 2012 win out? Tune in next year to find out.
November 3, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Another signal that we are about to have another rollercoaster climb in the housing market... or will that steady downward trend in investment (pink) since 2012 win out? Tune in next year to find out.
We've just started 'unsaving'. The pink line is the interest added by banks to NZ savings & term deposit balances (rolling annual). The blue line is the annual change in savings and term deposit balances. When the blue line goes below the pink, kiwis are withdrawing savings (net) [🧵 1/n]
November 2, 2025 at 6:39 AM
We've just started 'unsaving'. The pink line is the interest added by banks to NZ savings & term deposit balances (rolling annual). The blue line is the annual change in savings and term deposit balances. When the blue line goes below the pink, kiwis are withdrawing savings (net) [🧵 1/n]
Quick update & explainer on RBNZ/Govt monetary shenanigans. The white dotted line shows the net amount of $ that RBNZ/Govt created and added to commercial bank reserves over the last wee while (rolling annual). The other lines are contributors to that change in bank reserves. I'll explain... [🧵 1/n]
November 2, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Quick update & explainer on RBNZ/Govt monetary shenanigans. The white dotted line shows the net amount of $ that RBNZ/Govt created and added to commercial bank reserves over the last wee while (rolling annual). The other lines are contributors to that change in bank reserves. I'll explain... [🧵 1/n]
Total outstanding housing loans were up 5.4% year-on-year in Sept 25, but all of that increase (and a bit more) was interest added to loans by banks. With interest rates dropping, and over-payments calming, we are getting close to seeing a net positive flow of mortgage credit. [🧵1/n]
October 31, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Total outstanding housing loans were up 5.4% year-on-year in Sept 25, but all of that increase (and a bit more) was interest added to loans by banks. With interest rates dropping, and over-payments calming, we are getting close to seeing a net positive flow of mortgage credit. [🧵1/n]
Random benefit numbers update now that we have population estimates for 2025. First image covers places where benefit numbers have increased by more than the NZ average between 2023 and 2025 (population adjusted using Stats NZ estimates). [1/2]
October 30, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Random benefit numbers update now that we have population estimates for 2025. First image covers places where benefit numbers have increased by more than the NZ average between 2023 and 2025 (population adjusted using Stats NZ estimates). [1/2]
Reposted by Musical Chairs
Interesting how roads need to be designed for a surge capacity (that they will still likely not meet) but hospital staffing has to be reduced to bare bones that struggles to meet median demand….🤔
This we call a propaganda piece and not actual journalism
No we dont nor ever will need State Highway 1 as 4 lanes to Northland. Ironically showing why Labour Day was a problem also shows why NZTA's analysis is junk. The highway like mall parking lots only get clogged 4x a year
2+1 road is enough
No we dont nor ever will need State Highway 1 as 4 lanes to Northland. Ironically showing why Labour Day was a problem also shows why NZTA's analysis is junk. The highway like mall parking lots only get clogged 4x a year
2+1 road is enough
‘The benefits are huge’: $18b Northland Expressway set to transform road travel
Labour Day traffic showed how travel times could be reduced with the new corridor.
www.nzherald.co.nz
October 30, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Interesting how roads need to be designed for a surge capacity (that they will still likely not meet) but hospital staffing has to be reduced to bare bones that struggles to meet median demand….🤔
Hey google, define: pork barrel politics
October 30, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Hey google, define: pork barrel politics
Quick jobs numbers addendum. The Govt constrained public sector budgets, but it was private sector jobs that took the recession hit mostly. That's why Auckland is struggling to recover while Wellington is stabilising. [1/3]
October 30, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Quick jobs numbers addendum. The Govt constrained public sector budgets, but it was private sector jobs that took the recession hit mostly. That's why Auckland is struggling to recover while Wellington is stabilising. [1/3]
Should be going all in on this line - unearned income is a drain on our economy.
October 30, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Should be going all in on this line - unearned income is a drain on our economy.
It's Thursday, it's weekly jobs day!
We're approaching peak jobs season. We should see a decent pick-up in numbers over the next couple of months. How high the peak goes will give us some idea of how 2026 will start. [🧵1/3]
We're approaching peak jobs season. We should see a decent pick-up in numbers over the next couple of months. How high the peak goes will give us some idea of how 2026 will start. [🧵1/3]
October 30, 2025 at 2:32 AM
It's Thursday, it's weekly jobs day!
We're approaching peak jobs season. We should see a decent pick-up in numbers over the next couple of months. How high the peak goes will give us some idea of how 2026 will start. [🧵1/3]
We're approaching peak jobs season. We should see a decent pick-up in numbers over the next couple of months. How high the peak goes will give us some idea of how 2026 will start. [🧵1/3]
The NZ Govt spent $183bn into the economy in the year ending June 2025 and took back about $170bn in taxes, charges and dividends etc. This left the private sector $13bn better off. If more people understood this basic reality, we could have sensible Govt spending discussions.
October 29, 2025 at 12:06 PM
The NZ Govt spent $183bn into the economy in the year ending June 2025 and took back about $170bn in taxes, charges and dividends etc. This left the private sector $13bn better off. If more people understood this basic reality, we could have sensible Govt spending discussions.
Let's celebrate the update (finally) of Stats NZ Household Living Costs Price Index - a better measure of the cost of living than CPI.
First thing to notice is that a big chunk of the increase in our cost of living was thanks to RBNZ hiking interest rates to tackle the cost of living! [🧵 1/n]
First thing to notice is that a big chunk of the increase in our cost of living was thanks to RBNZ hiking interest rates to tackle the cost of living! [🧵 1/n]
October 29, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Let's celebrate the update (finally) of Stats NZ Household Living Costs Price Index - a better measure of the cost of living than CPI.
First thing to notice is that a big chunk of the increase in our cost of living was thanks to RBNZ hiking interest rates to tackle the cost of living! [🧵 1/n]
First thing to notice is that a big chunk of the increase in our cost of living was thanks to RBNZ hiking interest rates to tackle the cost of living! [🧵 1/n]
When the heroes at Stats NZ are screaming at the world to take notice. A clear separation between the cost of living for the wealthy and sorted folks who are seeing a rapid easing, and the bottom-feeders who are getting properly screwed.
October 28, 2025 at 8:50 AM
When the heroes at Stats NZ are screaming at the world to take notice. A clear separation between the cost of living for the wealthy and sorted folks who are seeing a rapid easing, and the bottom-feeders who are getting properly screwed.
Backlog reckons cont... Topical reminder that Govt turns the rationing screw when Ministers demand it. See the point in mid-2024 when someone clearly decided that Govt simply couldn't have any more people on ACC? Numbers have flatlined since and we're heading for year-on-year reductions. [1/n]
October 28, 2025 at 4:14 AM
Backlog reckons cont... Topical reminder that Govt turns the rationing screw when Ministers demand it. See the point in mid-2024 when someone clearly decided that Govt simply couldn't have any more people on ACC? Numbers have flatlined since and we're heading for year-on-year reductions. [1/n]
Backlog reckons cont... Net Financial Worth 🧵
Politicians tell us the coffers are empty to justify their inaction (blue) or timidity (red). NZ Govt has a high net financial worth - more *financial* assets than liabilities (debts). This basic fact is ignored by the media for some reason. More.. [1/n]
Politicians tell us the coffers are empty to justify their inaction (blue) or timidity (red). NZ Govt has a high net financial worth - more *financial* assets than liabilities (debts). This basic fact is ignored by the media for some reason. More.. [1/n]
October 28, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Backlog reckons cont... Net Financial Worth 🧵
Politicians tell us the coffers are empty to justify their inaction (blue) or timidity (red). NZ Govt has a high net financial worth - more *financial* assets than liabilities (debts). This basic fact is ignored by the media for some reason. More.. [1/n]
Politicians tell us the coffers are empty to justify their inaction (blue) or timidity (red). NZ Govt has a high net financial worth - more *financial* assets than liabilities (debts). This basic fact is ignored by the media for some reason. More.. [1/n]
Backlog of reckons day. First up, who paid / received interest in the year ending June 2025? Little known fact: households came out OK *net*. That masks mortgagors getting smashed while savers won big ofc.
Businesses got smashed too - that's how RBNZ persuade them to stop putting prices up lol [1/2]
Businesses got smashed too - that's how RBNZ persuade them to stop putting prices up lol [1/2]
October 28, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Backlog of reckons day. First up, who paid / received interest in the year ending June 2025? Little known fact: households came out OK *net*. That masks mortgagors getting smashed while savers won big ofc.
Businesses got smashed too - that's how RBNZ persuade them to stop putting prices up lol [1/2]
Businesses got smashed too - that's how RBNZ persuade them to stop putting prices up lol [1/2]