Yes, this is how we did things for years. Govt spent money on infra and other important stuff, and the Govt debt became the super safe savings of the private sector (paying a very low return that reflected virtually zero default risk).

Those twin peaks!

Yes, the IMF keep poor countries poor - using loans to force countries actoss the global south to adopt free market, cheap primary exports, small state policies that are the exact opposite of the policies that Britain, USA, etc used to become 'developed'.

But, tackling our imbalance with the rest of the world requires an actual strategy - another billion kiwifruit is a drop in the ocean compared to the rent we pay offshore banks (for eg). But, if you are expecting any actual strategy from Treasury, forget it. Debt 😱 etc, old people 😱 oh no... [Ends]

So, while I'm all for major public investment in things we need, we will have to do something about the amount of rent we send offshore, or Govt deficit spending will simply accelerate offshore accumulation of NZ assets (enabling more rent collection etc etc) [8/n]

Now, back in the day, NZ used to merrily deficit spend on infrastructure and growth - running five budget surpluses in 100 years! But, NZ had tax and policy settings that were designed to prevent the Govt deficit flowing straight to domestic rentiers and offshore investors. [7/n]

Also worth a look at the good ol' USA where huge deficit spending enables (some) households, corporations, and the rest of the world (hi japan, china) to save up massive piles of dollars and US Treasuries. [6/n]

Because NZ households (yellow) and Govt (pink) have gone into debt - *creating* the financial assets (cash, bonds etc) that the rest of the world and businesses have saved up.
Norway provides a clear example - Govt building a massive surplus by selling shit loads of gas [5/n]

Another angle... Countries towards top of the chart run larger deficits with the rest of the world. For example, NZ has run deficits of 3% of GDP per year on average ($13bn). NZ businesses have stacked about 0.8% of GDP in financial assets (e.g. Govt bonds). How? [4/n]

There are no countries in the bottom right of the chart. Why? Because persistent Govt budget surpluses drain financial assets from the economy, and, if this was combined with a net outflow of financial assets to the rest of the world, the economy would implode. [3/n]

The countries in the top right of the chart have run Govt budget *surpluses* on average since 2010. They also run persistent current account surpluses - they take more cash and financial assets in from the rest of the world than they give. This is not a coincidence! [2/n]

Businesses typically borrow on rapidly adjusting floating interest rates *and* they have been in hibernation for a couple of years what with the economy being down the toilet. So, business debt costs are pretty much back to 'usual' levels in real terms. [Ends]

We have also started taking on loads more mortgage debt (in real terms), which obviously pushes debt costs up higher too. [5/n]

What's happening here of course is that the actual cost of mortgage debt is adjusting painfully slowly to changes in OCR because the banks get us hooked on fixed-term mortgages. They manage interest rates on savings & mortgages to ensure they continue to extract maximal rent from our economy. [4/n]

And... actual mortgage repayments topped $47bn in the year to September 2025. That's nearly a third of total wages, and not far off total Govt spending on health and education! [3/n]

Here's the total interest that banks have stacked onto mortgages per year. The $22bn in the year to September was about 13% of total NZ wages ffs. [2/n]

I seriously don't think the opposition will get in next year. Their platform is lily-livered shit.