László Szerencsés
@szerlasz.bsky.social
Researcher at SUITS in Stockholm ▪️ Former Mercator-IPC Fellow ▪️ PhD from University of Graz ▪️Turkey's foreign policy
Pinned
1/🚨 Publication alert 🚨- My report on Turkey-Hungary relations is out! What started as an economic diversification strategy turned into a symbolic alliance after Turkey's failed 2016 coup attempt, and Hungary's isolation inside the EU in the same period. ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Imag...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
💥Hungary’s energy purchases could’ve funded about one-tenth of Putin’s war in Ukraine, if all revenues were used for war, Hungarian daily Népszava reports.
💰Between Feb 2022–Sep 2025, Hungary bought €15B gas and €8B oil from Russia — €23B total. Russia’s war costs are estimated at €100–300B.
💰Between Feb 2022–Sep 2025, Hungary bought €15B gas and €8B oil from Russia — €23B total. Russia’s war costs are estimated at €100–300B.
October 29, 2025 at 7:46 AM
💥Hungary’s energy purchases could’ve funded about one-tenth of Putin’s war in Ukraine, if all revenues were used for war, Hungarian daily Népszava reports.
💰Between Feb 2022–Sep 2025, Hungary bought €15B gas and €8B oil from Russia — €23B total. Russia’s war costs are estimated at €100–300B.
💰Between Feb 2022–Sep 2025, Hungary bought €15B gas and €8B oil from Russia — €23B total. Russia’s war costs are estimated at €100–300B.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
How do international crises help authoritarians? I wrote for the Project Syndicate 👇
@senemaydndzgit.bsky.social shows how Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine helped strengthen the domestic legitimacy of autocrats in Hungary and Turkey in the run-up to pivotal elections.
bit.ly/49ppgKl
bit.ly/49ppgKl
How International Crises Help Authoritarians
Senem Aydın-Düzgit shows how Russia’s war against Ukraine strengthened the domestic legitimacy of regimes in Hungary and Turkey.
bit.ly
October 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
How do international crises help authoritarians? I wrote for the Project Syndicate 👇
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Honored to see my Balkan Insight op-ed 📝 cited by @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social as a ‘straightforward explanation’ (9:31) of Turkey–Serbia dynamics in his latest video 🎥. It’s encouraging to see this topic gaining wider attention beyond policy circles. youtu.be/0-t7V0EtB5k?...
Are Serbia-Turkey Relations Collapsing?
YouTube video by Prof James Ker-Lindsay
youtu.be
October 18, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Honored to see my Balkan Insight op-ed 📝 cited by @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social as a ‘straightforward explanation’ (9:31) of Turkey–Serbia dynamics in his latest video 🎥. It’s encouraging to see this topic gaining wider attention beyond policy circles. youtu.be/0-t7V0EtB5k?...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Today the PKK, as a follow-up to its symbolic withdrawal ceremony in July, has announced its complete withdrawal from Turkey. My recent piece at the EPC summarizes the first year of this renewed Kurdish peace process.
🔴 Türkiye’s renewed Kurdish peace process could reshape EU–Türkiye relations, migration policy and regional security — but it is unfolding under authoritarian conditions.
Peace without democracy is fragile.
Read our latest commentary by @selvinkorkmaz.bsky.social 👇
www.epc.eu/publication/...
Peace without democracy is fragile.
Read our latest commentary by @selvinkorkmaz.bsky.social 👇
www.epc.eu/publication/...
October 26, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Today the PKK, as a follow-up to its symbolic withdrawal ceremony in July, has announced its complete withdrawal from Turkey. My recent piece at the EPC summarizes the first year of this renewed Kurdish peace process.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
I did a post.
"Emerging Middle Powers and World Disorder: A Reminder that Life is Nasty, Brutish, and Short in a Hobbesian World"
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
"Emerging Middle Powers and World Disorder: A Reminder that Life is Nasty, Brutish, and Short in a Hobbesian World"
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
Emerging Middle Powers and World Disorder
A Reminder that Life is Nasty, Brutish, and Short in a Hobbesian World
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:04 PM
I did a post.
"Emerging Middle Powers and World Disorder: A Reminder that Life is Nasty, Brutish, and Short in a Hobbesian World"
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
"Emerging Middle Powers and World Disorder: A Reminder that Life is Nasty, Brutish, and Short in a Hobbesian World"
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Our article wt @laniganamanda.bsky.social is out in Political Research Quarterly!
Using a natural experiment & interviews, we find that police recertification reform in Massachusetts prompt a recalibration of officer behavior, though not a full transformation.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Using a natural experiment & interviews, we find that police recertification reform in Massachusetts prompt a recalibration of officer behavior, though not a full transformation.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
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journals.sagepub.com
October 21, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Our article wt @laniganamanda.bsky.social is out in Political Research Quarterly!
Using a natural experiment & interviews, we find that police recertification reform in Massachusetts prompt a recalibration of officer behavior, though not a full transformation.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Using a natural experiment & interviews, we find that police recertification reform in Massachusetts prompt a recalibration of officer behavior, though not a full transformation.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Honored to see my Balkan Insight op-ed 📝 cited by @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social as a ‘straightforward explanation’ (9:31) of Turkey–Serbia dynamics in his latest video 🎥. It’s encouraging to see this topic gaining wider attention beyond policy circles. youtu.be/0-t7V0EtB5k?...
Are Serbia-Turkey Relations Collapsing?
YouTube video by Prof James Ker-Lindsay
youtu.be
October 18, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Honored to see my Balkan Insight op-ed 📝 cited by @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social as a ‘straightforward explanation’ (9:31) of Turkey–Serbia dynamics in his latest video 🎥. It’s encouraging to see this topic gaining wider attention beyond policy circles. youtu.be/0-t7V0EtB5k?...
Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest = Orbán’s dream scenario.
Two disruptors of the liberal order on home soil just months before the 2026 election. First invited to Egypt as the only Eastern European leader, he now hosts the illiberal axis. Orbán gains legitimacy without offering a single concession.
Two disruptors of the liberal order on home soil just months before the 2026 election. First invited to Egypt as the only Eastern European leader, he now hosts the illiberal axis. Orbán gains legitimacy without offering a single concession.
October 16, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest = Orbán’s dream scenario.
Two disruptors of the liberal order on home soil just months before the 2026 election. First invited to Egypt as the only Eastern European leader, he now hosts the illiberal axis. Orbán gains legitimacy without offering a single concession.
Two disruptors of the liberal order on home soil just months before the 2026 election. First invited to Egypt as the only Eastern European leader, he now hosts the illiberal axis. Orbán gains legitimacy without offering a single concession.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
"Vucic’s outburst is best understood as an attempt to distract voters from the protests threatening his rule. His quick retraction shows that despite moments of rhetorical tension, neither side wishes to jeopardise this transactional friendship"
Outrage one day, admiration the next.
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
Turkey’s Drone Sales to Kosovo Test its Friendship with Serbia
A shipment of Turkish-made military drones to Kosovo reignited old tensions between Ankara and Belgrade. But after initially accusing Turkey of imperial ambitions, Serbia’s president backtracked, high...
balkaninsight.com
October 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
"Vucic’s outburst is best understood as an attempt to distract voters from the protests threatening his rule. His quick retraction shows that despite moments of rhetorical tension, neither side wishes to jeopardise this transactional friendship"
Outrage one day, admiration the next.
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
Turkey’s Drone Sales to Kosovo Test its Friendship with Serbia
A shipment of Turkish-made military drones to Kosovo reignited old tensions between Ankara and Belgrade. But after initially accusing Turkey of imperial ambitions, Serbia’s president backtracked, high...
balkaninsight.com
October 10, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Outrage one day, admiration the next.
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
Vučić’s reaction to Turkey's drone sales to Kosovo captures the fragile pragmatism holding Serbia–Turkey relations together.
✍️ My latest in Balkan Insight: balkaninsight.com/2025/10/10/t...
@whitejenny.bsky.social delivering her keynote lecture on „Beyond oppression and resistance: The transformative power of theory“ at the CEST Summer School in Turin.
August 24, 2025 at 3:48 PM
@whitejenny.bsky.social delivering her keynote lecture on „Beyond oppression and resistance: The transformative power of theory“ at the CEST Summer School in Turin.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Hungary is at a crossroads - my op-ed for BI
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
Hungary’s Foreign Policy Crossroads – and Why It Matters for the EU
For the first time in 15 years, Viktor Orban faces the real possibility of losing power as Peter Magyar’s opposition party leads in the polls. The outcome could reshape Hungary’s foreign policy, with ...
balkaninsight.com
August 19, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Hungary is at a crossroads - my op-ed for BI
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
💥🤯 Reaction by Hungary’s pro-Kremlin leadership to Russia’s airstrike on Transcarpathia, home to Ukraine’s Hungarian minority: Viktor Orbán’s FM Péter Szijjártó avoids naming Russia or the region. President Sulyok, Orbán’s puppet, mentions “Russian” air strike in his post—but later deletes the word.
August 21, 2025 at 10:28 AM
💥🤯 Reaction by Hungary’s pro-Kremlin leadership to Russia’s airstrike on Transcarpathia, home to Ukraine’s Hungarian minority: Viktor Orbán’s FM Péter Szijjártó avoids naming Russia or the region. President Sulyok, Orbán’s puppet, mentions “Russian” air strike in his post—but later deletes the word.
Why does Magyar, Orbán's challenger, want the Putin–Zelensky meeting to be held in Budapest? He’s preparing for the worst. If it takes place in HU, Orbàn would argue that his pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine line has been justified – and that could boost him in the 2026 elections. telex.hu/english/2025...
Péter Magyar: Orbán should invite Putin and Zelensky to Budapest
Magyar recalled that as part of the Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994, Russia recognized Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and independence, so a meeting between the two leaders in the Hungarian cap...
telex.hu
August 19, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Why does Magyar, Orbán's challenger, want the Putin–Zelensky meeting to be held in Budapest? He’s preparing for the worst. If it takes place in HU, Orbàn would argue that his pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine line has been justified – and that could boost him in the 2026 elections. telex.hu/english/2025...
Hungary is at a crossroads - my op-ed for BI
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
Hungary’s Foreign Policy Crossroads – and Why It Matters for the EU
For the first time in 15 years, Viktor Orban faces the real possibility of losing power as Peter Magyar’s opposition party leads in the polls. The outcome could reshape Hungary’s foreign policy, with ...
balkaninsight.com
August 19, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Hungary is at a crossroads - my op-ed for BI
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
⚖️ Orbán’s anti-Western course vs. Magyar’s cautious pro-Western shift
🛑 Vetoes could end, but migration & UA remain red lines
🚪 Silent support, not loud intervention — Berlin and the EU should give Magyar space to win
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/19/h...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Informative quick briefing on why Hungary is such an important piece of the Turkey-Russia-EU gas pipeline puzzle, by László Szerencsés for the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.
www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social
www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social
May 26, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Informative quick briefing on why Hungary is such an important piece of the Turkey-Russia-EU gas pipeline puzzle, by László Szerencsés for the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.
www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social
www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social
Hungary hosted the informal summit of the Organisation of Turkic States on 20-21 May in Budapest. In his speech, Viktor Orbán emphasized the organisation’s role in Hungary’s energy diversification efforts. See my earlier report for the background.
1/🚨 Publication alert 🚨- My report on Turkey-Hungary relations is out! What started as an economic diversification strategy turned into a symbolic alliance after Turkey's failed 2016 coup attempt, and Hungary's isolation inside the EU in the same period. ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Imag...
May 22, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Hungary hosted the informal summit of the Organisation of Turkic States on 20-21 May in Budapest. In his speech, Viktor Orbán emphasized the organisation’s role in Hungary’s energy diversification efforts. See my earlier report for the background.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Orban making overtures to Simion made sense from one perspective only: to gain an illiberal ally in the EU Council. Orban chose to make this incredibly costly gamble, essentially betraying the Transylvanian voters his party spent decades cultivating. And he lost. This is likely consequential.
💥Viktor Orbán made one of his biggest mistakes by praising anti-Hungarian far-right candidate George Simion.
🇭🇺 In Hungary, he hurt his “nationalist” credibility, angering many right-wing voters.
🇷🇴 In Romania, the Orbán-loyal Hungarian diaspora voted most heavily against Simion.
👎And Simion lost.
🇭🇺 In Hungary, he hurt his “nationalist” credibility, angering many right-wing voters.
🇷🇴 In Romania, the Orbán-loyal Hungarian diaspora voted most heavily against Simion.
👎And Simion lost.
May 18, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Orban making overtures to Simion made sense from one perspective only: to gain an illiberal ally in the EU Council. Orban chose to make this incredibly costly gamble, essentially betraying the Transylvanian voters his party spent decades cultivating. And he lost. This is likely consequential.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Hungary's "inoagent" law is here
Increasingly trailing behind in the polls and facing a fiscal meltdown, this looks like part of a hail-mary attempt to eviscerate and intimidate critical media, NGOs, shut down public debate, and, likely, to prepare the disqualification of opposition candidates.
Increasingly trailing behind in the polls and facing a fiscal meltdown, this looks like part of a hail-mary attempt to eviscerate and intimidate critical media, NGOs, shut down public debate, and, likely, to prepare the disqualification of opposition candidates.
‼️🇭🇺 Democracy is dying in daylight in Hungary: Viktor Orbán’s regime is set to blacklist “foreign-funded” (including EU-funded) NGOs and media, then unleash the tax office to bleed them dry, issue fines and even shut them down.
It’s happening because the EU Commission simply doesn’t give a damn.
It’s happening because the EU Commission simply doesn’t give a damn.
Orbán’s Fidesz party proposes Russia-style crackdown on Hungary’s civil society
The new bill fits into a pattern of democratic backsliding for the Central European country.
www.politico.eu
May 14, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Hungary's "inoagent" law is here
Increasingly trailing behind in the polls and facing a fiscal meltdown, this looks like part of a hail-mary attempt to eviscerate and intimidate critical media, NGOs, shut down public debate, and, likely, to prepare the disqualification of opposition candidates.
Increasingly trailing behind in the polls and facing a fiscal meltdown, this looks like part of a hail-mary attempt to eviscerate and intimidate critical media, NGOs, shut down public debate, and, likely, to prepare the disqualification of opposition candidates.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
This seems like an existential threat to Hungary's independent sector. Besides practically forbidding any criticism of Hungary's "democracy" if an organization or media outlet receives foreign funding (including EU money), it would make receiving domestic funding difficult as well.
@politico.eu: "The bill says threats to national sovereignty include influencing public opinion, promoting democratic debate, or challenging state-defined values like Christian culture and traditional family roles."
Orbán’s Fidesz party proposes Russia-style crackdown on Hungary’s civil society
The new bill fits into a pattern of democratic backsliding for the Central European country.
www.politico.eu
May 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
This seems like an existential threat to Hungary's independent sector. Besides practically forbidding any criticism of Hungary's "democracy" if an organization or media outlet receives foreign funding (including EU money), it would make receiving domestic funding difficult as well.
Reposted by László Szerencsés
Notably, Turkey and Hungary are #3 and #7 on the chart.
@szerlasz.bsky.social wrote a timely analysis about that and EU policy (maps included): www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social wrote a timely analysis about that and EU policy (maps included): www.su.se/institute-fo...
May 14, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Notably, Turkey and Hungary are #3 and #7 on the chart.
@szerlasz.bsky.social wrote a timely analysis about that and EU policy (maps included): www.su.se/institute-fo...
@szerlasz.bsky.social wrote a timely analysis about that and EU policy (maps included): www.su.se/institute-fo...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
1/🚨 Publication alert 🚨- My report on Turkey-Hungary relations is out! What started as an economic diversification strategy turned into a symbolic alliance after Turkey's failed 2016 coup attempt, and Hungary's isolation inside the EU in the same period. ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Imag...
February 3, 2025 at 3:05 PM
1/🚨 Publication alert 🚨- My report on Turkey-Hungary relations is out! What started as an economic diversification strategy turned into a symbolic alliance after Turkey's failed 2016 coup attempt, and Hungary's isolation inside the EU in the same period. ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Imag...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
As the EU is about to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, see my brief on how Turkey and Hungary have challenged these efforts. www.su.se/institute-fo...
May 6, 2025 at 4:41 PM
As the EU is about to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, see my brief on how Turkey and Hungary have challenged these efforts. www.su.se/institute-fo...
As the EU is about to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, see my brief on how Turkey and Hungary have challenged these efforts. www.su.se/institute-fo...
May 6, 2025 at 4:41 PM
As the EU is about to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, see my brief on how Turkey and Hungary have challenged these efforts. www.su.se/institute-fo...
Reposted by László Szerencsés
The latest SUITS Policy Brief by Hungarian Turkey expert @szerlasz.bsky.social is an absolute must-read. Cooperation between Turkey and Hungary on gas exports seriously complicates the EU’s efforts to diversify from its over-reliance on Russian gas.
The EU’s gas diversification efforts are being challenged. My latest SUITS Brief explores how Turkey’s energy hub ambitions and Hungary’s energy policies undermine the EU’s efforts, and offers a way to move forward. 🧵👇1/5
March 17, 2025 at 10:45 AM
The latest SUITS Policy Brief by Hungarian Turkey expert @szerlasz.bsky.social is an absolute must-read. Cooperation between Turkey and Hungary on gas exports seriously complicates the EU’s efforts to diversify from its over-reliance on Russian gas.