Stephen Geary
@stephengeary.bsky.social
Business Intelligence for the San Diego Gulls
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Is it bad to be thinking about the draft after 10 Vikings games? Asking for a friend
What to Do When Your Season Isn't Technically Over?
“Oh god, do I have to watch my awful team win just enough games to never draft an elite talent?”
kellycriterion.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Is it bad to be thinking about the draft after 10 Vikings games? Asking for a friend
Reposted by Stephen Geary
🧵 Thread: I recently explored a few ideas to analyze a team's press in more detail 👇
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
October 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM
🧵 Thread: I recently explored a few ideas to analyze a team's press in more detail 👇
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
1️⃣ Pressing triggers
▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers
👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined
The mountains are calling and I must go
The Phillies have a 9-9-9 Challenge box for the Postseason 😭
It comes with 9 "fun size" hot dogs and 9 "petite" beers, and even features a scoreboard to keep track of your progress 🤣
It comes with 9 "fun size" hot dogs and 9 "petite" beers, and even features a scoreboard to keep track of your progress 🤣
October 3, 2025 at 4:48 PM
The mountains are calling and I must go
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Reposted by Stephen Geary
We can use xG to compute post-hoc win-draw-loss probabilities.
Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation.
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation.
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
Expected goals and the Monte Carlo Trap
On a team level, xG is often used to assess the quality of the goal scoring opportunities that a team creates and concedes. That is, it…
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be
September 11, 2025 at 11:34 AM
We can use xG to compute post-hoc win-draw-loss probabilities.
Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation.
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation.
dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...
Reposted by Stephen Geary
three Schwarber HRs, one for each of the three Phillies (Trea, Sanchez, Ranger) who were snubbed for the ASG
July 16, 2025 at 4:01 AM
three Schwarber HRs, one for each of the three Phillies (Trea, Sanchez, Ranger) who were snubbed for the ASG
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Reposted by Stephen Geary
New #CMSAC #SportsAnalytics paper on evaluating change of direction in the #NFL by myself and @stat-ron.bsky.social
arxiv.org/pdf/2507.06122
Spoiler alert: DK Metcalf displays straight-line, less agile movement, while George Pickens exhibits erratic, more variable directional movement.
arxiv.org/pdf/2507.06122
Spoiler alert: DK Metcalf displays straight-line, less agile movement, while George Pickens exhibits erratic, more variable directional movement.
July 9, 2025 at 1:12 AM
New #CMSAC #SportsAnalytics paper on evaluating change of direction in the #NFL by myself and @stat-ron.bsky.social
arxiv.org/pdf/2507.06122
Spoiler alert: DK Metcalf displays straight-line, less agile movement, while George Pickens exhibits erratic, more variable directional movement.
arxiv.org/pdf/2507.06122
Spoiler alert: DK Metcalf displays straight-line, less agile movement, while George Pickens exhibits erratic, more variable directional movement.
Reposted by Stephen Geary
I swear to god, if all those Panthers players coming onto the ice at the same time causes me data issues lmao
June 18, 2025 at 2:50 AM
I swear to god, if all those Panthers players coming onto the ice at the same time causes me data issues lmao
Reposted by Stephen Geary
June 13, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Reposted by Stephen Geary
(Users clamoring for more sports posting)
[posts about the Mariners]
Hello, human resources?
[posts about the Mariners]
Hello, human resources?
June 12, 2025 at 3:34 PM
(Users clamoring for more sports posting)
[posts about the Mariners]
Hello, human resources?
[posts about the Mariners]
Hello, human resources?
Reposted by Stephen Geary
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
NHL 2025 Entry Draft Simulation
stephengeary.shinyapps.io
May 31, 2025 at 6:49 PM
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
NHL 2025 Entry Draft Simulation
stephengeary.shinyapps.io
May 31, 2025 at 6:49 PM
stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft
Reposted by Stephen Geary
What makes a rebuild successful?
I did a deep dive on the Panthers 2024 cup winning roster to find out.
puckluckanalytics.com/2025/05/14/r...
I did a deep dive on the Panthers 2024 cup winning roster to find out.
puckluckanalytics.com/2025/05/14/r...
Rebuild Review: 2024 Florida Panthers - Puck Luck Analytics
The Florida Panthers won the 2024 Stanley Cup after a rise from a rebuild. Their cup winning roster was more than a decade in the making. In an effort to understand what a makes a rebuild succeed, I d...
puckluckanalytics.com
May 15, 2025 at 4:25 AM
What makes a rebuild successful?
I did a deep dive on the Panthers 2024 cup winning roster to find out.
puckluckanalytics.com/2025/05/14/r...
I did a deep dive on the Panthers 2024 cup winning roster to find out.
puckluckanalytics.com/2025/05/14/r...
Reposted by Stephen Geary
NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social:
The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.
Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.
Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.
Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.
Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
May 15, 2025 at 12:26 PM
NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social:
The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.
Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.
Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.
Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.
Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.
“Tradition of success in Dallas” 🤨
April 25, 2025 at 1:31 AM
“Tradition of success in Dallas” 🤨
Reposted by Stephen Geary
I think Arsenal fans would disagree. Felt quite magical.
Real Madrid’s history is littered with magical nights on the European stage.
This was not one of them.
#ARSRMA | #AFC | #RMCF
📝 @jacklang.bsky.social
This was not one of them.
#ARSRMA | #AFC | #RMCF
📝 @jacklang.bsky.social
Arsenal 3 Real Madrid 0 – Breaking down Declan Rice’s two incredible free-kicks
Arsenal thrashed Madrid thanks to two moments of magic from Rice
www.nytimes.com
April 8, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I think Arsenal fans would disagree. Felt quite magical.
Reposted by Stephen Geary
I’ve been using the new gradients and patterns in #rstats and #ggplot2 quite a bit for recent package, so here’s a deep dive! Everything from the basics of using gradients in your plots through to sophisticated visual effects.
jamesgoldie.dev/writing/stac...
jamesgoldie.dev/writing/stac...
The guide to gradients in R and ggplot2 – James Goldie
Visualising data and building things for fun and for change. #climatehealth → #datajournalism
jamesgoldie.dev
March 17, 2025 at 9:08 PM
I’ve been using the new gradients and patterns in #rstats and #ggplot2 quite a bit for recent package, so here’s a deep dive! Everything from the basics of using gradients in your plots through to sophisticated visual effects.
jamesgoldie.dev/writing/stac...
jamesgoldie.dev/writing/stac...
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Too many March Madness references for me to delay posting this any longer!
If you've ever wondered why you're bothering to talk about football without using dice to illustrate your point, boy do I have some thoughts for you
If you've ever wondered why you're bothering to talk about football without using dice to illustrate your point, boy do I have some thoughts for you
NFL Teambuilding, Part 2
Get your dice out of my sports
open.substack.com
March 15, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Too many March Madness references for me to delay posting this any longer!
If you've ever wondered why you're bothering to talk about football without using dice to illustrate your point, boy do I have some thoughts for you
If you've ever wondered why you're bothering to talk about football without using dice to illustrate your point, boy do I have some thoughts for you
Reposted by Stephen Geary
March 9, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Me watching Severance:
February 28, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Me watching Severance:
Reposted by Stephen Geary
Tonight’s three stars of the game:
🌟 Coulson Pitre
⭐️⭐️ Tristan Luneau
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Tyson Hinds
#LetsGoGulls #ABBvsSD
🌟 Coulson Pitre
⭐️⭐️ Tristan Luneau
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Tyson Hinds
#LetsGoGulls #ABBvsSD
February 20, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Tonight’s three stars of the game:
🌟 Coulson Pitre
⭐️⭐️ Tristan Luneau
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Tyson Hinds
#LetsGoGulls #ABBvsSD
🌟 Coulson Pitre
⭐️⭐️ Tristan Luneau
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Tyson Hinds
#LetsGoGulls #ABBvsSD
Reposted by Stephen Geary
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
February 19, 2025 at 5:58 PM
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
Reposted by Stephen Geary
"all I gotta say is GO FUCKING BIRDS!" - Landon Dickerson
lmao
lmao
February 14, 2025 at 4:59 PM
"all I gotta say is GO FUCKING BIRDS!" - Landon Dickerson
lmao
lmao