Shane Markowitz
@shanemarkowitz.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, PoliSci/IR, Comenius Uni (Bratislava)
Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC
Research: populism, affective polarization, disinformation, environment
PhD, PoliSci, CEU
Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC
Research: populism, affective polarization, disinformation, environment
PhD, PoliSci, CEU
More like the US dollar remains weak despite the fact that analysts are aware that tariffs will spur inflation and put pressure on the Fed to maintain high rates. This, in fact, does point to other factors as the reason for the dollar fall...
Everyone talks about how Trump is the reason for the big Dollar fall, but the truth is more mundane: markets price much bigger rate cuts for the Fed than other central banks. Those cuts are predicated on inflation staying low, which is about to get tested...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-do...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-do...
August 10, 2025 at 12:05 PM
More like the US dollar remains weak despite the fact that analysts are aware that tariffs will spur inflation and put pressure on the Fed to maintain high rates. This, in fact, does point to other factors as the reason for the dollar fall...
Looking like Murkowski will cave. There could perhaps be some further back and forth between House & Senate - but even that's unlikely as House Rs typically ultimately buckle to White House pressure.
Lots of happy talk from Senate Republicans now. No action on the floor yet, but Murkowski may just stay bought.
Getting this through the House isn't guaranteed, but we'll have to see the wraparound amendment. House Ways and Means chair Jason Smith was in the Senate this AM.
Getting this through the House isn't guaranteed, but we'll have to see the wraparound amendment. House Ways and Means chair Jason Smith was in the Senate this AM.
July 1, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Looking like Murkowski will cave. There could perhaps be some further back and forth between House & Senate - but even that's unlikely as House Rs typically ultimately buckle to White House pressure.
Collins, Murkowski, and Paul voted in favor of the Van Hollen amendment - this can probably be read at least in part as an attempt to strongly signal to Thune that he will need to go much farther with concessions if he wants any of their votes.
July 1, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Collins, Murkowski, and Paul voted in favor of the Van Hollen amendment - this can probably be read at least in part as an attempt to strongly signal to Thune that he will need to go much farther with concessions if he wants any of their votes.
This is the ceasefire that he declared would hold "forever", right?
President Donald Trump called on Israel to stop dropping bombs on Iran, calling it a “major violation” of a fragile ceasefire between the two countries he announced just hours ago.
Trump Demands Israel Stop Dropping Bombs on Iran to Save Truce
President Donald Trump ordered Israel to stop dropping bombs on Iran, calling it a “major violation” of a fragile ceasefire between the two countries he announced just hours ago.
bloom.bg
June 24, 2025 at 11:38 AM
This is the ceasefire that he declared would hold "forever", right?
Second holiday axed in just last few years - both to raise tax revenue. While boon for private sector - a peculiar way to cover budget shortfall. Govt claims Slovakia has too many holidays (but most workers here actually only get day off when they fall on weekday so not quite as much as appears).
Slovakia ends November 17 public holiday amid fiscal pressures - The Slovak Spectator
The Day of the Struggle for Freedom and Democracy will remain symbolic but no longer a day off, as coalition seeks savings after transaction tax backlash.
spectator.sme.sk
June 3, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Second holiday axed in just last few years - both to raise tax revenue. While boon for private sector - a peculiar way to cover budget shortfall. Govt claims Slovakia has too many holidays (but most workers here actually only get day off when they fall on weekday so not quite as much as appears).
"Lee...made two failed attempts to reach the presidential Blue House"
Trzaskowski probably upon reading this: 🤔 🤔
Trzaskowski probably upon reading this: 🤔 🤔
Lee Jae-myung wins election as South Korean president
Man who led campaign to oust Yoon Suk Yeol comfortably ahead of conservative opponent with 70% of vote counted
www.theguardian.com
June 3, 2025 at 7:38 PM
"Lee...made two failed attempts to reach the presidential Blue House"
Trzaskowski probably upon reading this: 🤔 🤔
Trzaskowski probably upon reading this: 🤔 🤔
While night session disparity at Roland-Garros has been widely discussed, equally problematic is how they consistently slot women's matches into early slots at Philippe-Chatrier, treating them as nuisance to be rid of as swiftly as possible to free up courts for men in prime spots. @rolandgarros.com
June 2, 2025 at 7:43 PM
While night session disparity at Roland-Garros has been widely discussed, equally problematic is how they consistently slot women's matches into early slots at Philippe-Chatrier, treating them as nuisance to be rid of as swiftly as possible to free up courts for men in prime spots. @rolandgarros.com
Reposted by Shane Markowitz
🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/
June 2, 2025 at 4:08 AM
🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/
Not sure if Trzaskowski cares about any embarrassment from a premature declaration though - he either emerges victorious or his national political career is over anyway after blowing a second consecutive presidential election.
June 1, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Not sure if Trzaskowski cares about any embarrassment from a premature declaration though - he either emerges victorious or his national political career is over anyway after blowing a second consecutive presidential election.
Yes - but what about Biden's age?
Trump administration ends Harvard's ability to enrol international students
The move escalates the administration's row with America's oldest university over hiring, admissions and teaching practices.
www.bbc.com
May 22, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Yes - but what about Biden's age?
The first round results appear to have awakened the pro-EU and pro-Western blocs in Romania in a bit of a reverse Slovakia, where Korčok's surprisingly strong first round finish boosted turnout for Pellegrini in the second round.
*Pellegrini, however, is far more centrist than the fringe Simion.
*Pellegrini, however, is far more centrist than the fringe Simion.
Romania, 66.77% of votes counted:
Presidential election, second round today
Dan (*-RE): 52.99% (+1.2)
Simion (AUR-ECR): 47.01% (-2.1)
+/- vs. 38.77% of votes counted
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Presidential election, second round today
Dan (*-RE): 52.99% (+1.2)
Simion (AUR-ECR): 47.01% (-2.1)
+/- vs. 38.77% of votes counted
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
May 18, 2025 at 7:22 PM
The first round results appear to have awakened the pro-EU and pro-Western blocs in Romania in a bit of a reverse Slovakia, where Korčok's surprisingly strong first round finish boosted turnout for Pellegrini in the second round.
*Pellegrini, however, is far more centrist than the fringe Simion.
*Pellegrini, however, is far more centrist than the fringe Simion.
His placing blame on "government" also underscores why it is difficult to counter right-wing populists. Even when they're in charge & recklessly dismantle institutions & social safety net, government broadly becomes perceived culprit for problems, further undermining support for mainstream parties.
May 9, 2025 at 6:28 AM
His placing blame on "government" also underscores why it is difficult to counter right-wing populists. Even when they're in charge & recklessly dismantle institutions & social safety net, government broadly becomes perceived culprit for problems, further undermining support for mainstream parties.
Mainstream European parties first converged on economic & social issues, creating opening for fringe parties, & now frantically trying to close space but too late to alter perceptions. They'd do better to fight elections making case for migration & how to integrate better rather than far right turf.
Just like the Center Left, the Center Right first “died” ideologically (by adopting the ideology of a rival) and then electorally (because the rival took over its voters).
Strange Death of the Centre right?
🇦🇺 Liberals head historically bad result, leader lost seat
🇨🇦 Tories huge lead evaporates leader lost seat
🇫🇷 Republicans 10% of seats in assembly
🇬🇧 Tories 15% worst ever projected vote in local elections.
🇩🇪CDU in office but low vote share, AfD at heels.
🇦🇺 Liberals head historically bad result, leader lost seat
🇨🇦 Tories huge lead evaporates leader lost seat
🇫🇷 Republicans 10% of seats in assembly
🇬🇧 Tories 15% worst ever projected vote in local elections.
🇩🇪CDU in office but low vote share, AfD at heels.
May 3, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Mainstream European parties first converged on economic & social issues, creating opening for fringe parties, & now frantically trying to close space but too late to alter perceptions. They'd do better to fight elections making case for migration & how to integrate better rather than far right turf.
A lot of the good kind of red in this election cartogram created by ABC Australia - the conservative Coalition was wiped out across urban and suburban districts.
May 3, 2025 at 12:23 PM
A lot of the good kind of red in this election cartogram created by ABC Australia - the conservative Coalition was wiped out across urban and suburban districts.
Starmer/Labour need to study Canada/Australia very closely, anything else is gross political malpractice. UK has already experienced disastrous Brexit driven largely by right-wing populism and is home to two Trump-aligned opposition parties. The inability of Starmer to exploit situation is shocking.
May 3, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Starmer/Labour need to study Canada/Australia very closely, anything else is gross political malpractice. UK has already experienced disastrous Brexit driven largely by right-wing populism and is home to two Trump-aligned opposition parties. The inability of Starmer to exploit situation is shocking.
Indeed, it would be prudent for the Conservatives to look at the rapid decline of the Republicans in France to see what could happen to them. In this regard, they'd be smart to immediately try to push Labour and the Lib Dems to agree on a comprehensive multi-party backed electoral reform proposal.
As FPTP starts to work for Reform and against the Tories, and the advantages pay less dividends for Labour, I wonder if the party positions on electoral reform will change.
May 3, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Indeed, it would be prudent for the Conservatives to look at the rapid decline of the Republicans in France to see what could happen to them. In this regard, they'd be smart to immediately try to push Labour and the Lib Dems to agree on a comprehensive multi-party backed electoral reform proposal.
Unlike the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia, Starmer has pursued the strategy of buttering up and cozying up to Trump. It's proving to be a costly election strategy.
Labour alienated its core and failed to attract Reform voters. Now will Starmer change tack? | John McDonnell
The local elections showed that voters feel betrayed. But in a party that brooks no dissent, that message isn’t getting through, says independent MP John McDonnell
www.theguardian.com
May 3, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Unlike the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia, Starmer has pursued the strategy of buttering up and cozying up to Trump. It's proving to be a costly election strategy.
With around 5% of the vote counted, Labour's on track for a comfortable win. Caveat: the early votes or "pre-polls" aren't included yet. #Australia
May 3, 2025 at 9:36 AM
With around 5% of the vote counted, Labour's on track for a comfortable win. Caveat: the early votes or "pre-polls" aren't included yet. #Australia
CBC has declared that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat - and by a fairly substantial margin.
April 29, 2025 at 8:55 AM
CBC has declared that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat - and by a fairly substantial margin.
The collapse of the NDP was, in fact, a net positive for the Liberals and essential to their victory (as indicated by polling trajectories). If the NDP had collapsed even more (along with the Greens), Liberals likely would have won additional seats.
The staggering collapse of the NDP is helping Conservatives nail seats with a small share of the vote, part 2.
Take a look at this NDP-held seat in British Columbia!
Conservatives will win it with roughly 35%, with the NDP (19%) in 4th right now behind Libs (26%) and Greens (19%)!
Take a look at this NDP-held seat in British Columbia!
Conservatives will win it with roughly 35%, with the NDP (19%) in 4th right now behind Libs (26%) and Greens (19%)!
April 29, 2025 at 6:44 AM
The collapse of the NDP was, in fact, a net positive for the Liberals and essential to their victory (as indicated by polling trajectories). If the NDP had collapsed even more (along with the Greens), Liberals likely would have won additional seats.
Recession concerns palpable but I'd rather be in Europe's position than US. EU has flexibility to lower rates w/out same inflationary pressures as US & ability to negotiate economic deals w/ range of global actors. US in unenviable position of dealing w/ inflation & recession simultaneously alone.
We are a far cry away from the old ECB that was hiking in 2011 in the midst of a crisis because of a temporary bump in inflation.
Frankfurt is now forward-looking as a central bank should be.
Frankfurt is now forward-looking as a central bank should be.
ECB does what it needs to do, 25 bps cut, dovish tilt in the language.
And Lagarde in good form, says the concept of neutral rate only works in a shock free world but “anybody in this room who thinks that we are in a shock free world, I would suggest” that they “have their head examined.”
And Lagarde in good form, says the concept of neutral rate only works in a shock free world but “anybody in this room who thinks that we are in a shock free world, I would suggest” that they “have their head examined.”
April 17, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Recession concerns palpable but I'd rather be in Europe's position than US. EU has flexibility to lower rates w/out same inflationary pressures as US & ability to negotiate economic deals w/ range of global actors. US in unenviable position of dealing w/ inflation & recession simultaneously alone.
US is dealing with both recessionary & inflationary shocks caused by tariffs, budget cuts, & uncertainty, Europe just with recessionary pressures. Strengthening of euro also frees up space for ECB to cut rates faster. Of course Powell could just give him what he wants though, let inflation go wild.
Trump again calls for Fed to cut rates, says Powell’s ‘termination cannot come fast enough’
President Donald Trump on Thursday again called for the Federal Reserve to lower rates and even hinted at the "termination" of Chair Jerome Powell.
www.cnbc.com
April 17, 2025 at 1:01 PM
US is dealing with both recessionary & inflationary shocks caused by tariffs, budget cuts, & uncertainty, Europe just with recessionary pressures. Strengthening of euro also frees up space for ECB to cut rates faster. Of course Powell could just give him what he wants though, let inflation go wild.
Walking back the walk back
Commerce Secretary Lutnick says tariff exemptions for electronics are only temporary
Commerce Secretary Lutnick says tariff exemptions for electronics are only temporary
Lutnick said on "This Week" administration's exemptions on electronic devices from tariffs is temporary, with "semiconductor tariffs" likely come in "a month or two."
abcnews.go.com
April 13, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Walking back the walk back
Might as well raise tariffs another 1000% to bring oil prices down even more. Sure, everything else will cost a fortune, but at least gas will be cheap enough for everyone to drive to the jobs they no longer have.
This is what happens when advisers are too afraid to tell the boss the truth. Boss repeats the same idiotic claims of Treasury secretary, who knows better.
Again, oil prices are tanking b/c markets are pricing in global recession. Interest rates down because people are dumping stocks for bonds
Again, oil prices are tanking b/c markets are pricing in global recession. Interest rates down because people are dumping stocks for bonds
April 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Might as well raise tariffs another 1000% to bring oil prices down even more. Sure, everything else will cost a fortune, but at least gas will be cheap enough for everyone to drive to the jobs they no longer have.