Shane Markowitz
@shanemarkowitz.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, PoliSci/IR, Comenius Uni (Bratislava)
Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC
Research: populism, affective polarization, disinformation, environment
PhD, PoliSci, CEU
Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC
Research: populism, affective polarization, disinformation, environment
PhD, PoliSci, CEU
While night session disparity at Roland-Garros has been widely discussed, equally problematic is how they consistently slot women's matches into early slots at Philippe-Chatrier, treating them as nuisance to be rid of as swiftly as possible to free up courts for men in prime spots. @rolandgarros.com
June 2, 2025 at 7:43 PM
While night session disparity at Roland-Garros has been widely discussed, equally problematic is how they consistently slot women's matches into early slots at Philippe-Chatrier, treating them as nuisance to be rid of as swiftly as possible to free up courts for men in prime spots. @rolandgarros.com
A lot of the good kind of red in this election cartogram created by ABC Australia - the conservative Coalition was wiped out across urban and suburban districts.
May 3, 2025 at 12:23 PM
A lot of the good kind of red in this election cartogram created by ABC Australia - the conservative Coalition was wiped out across urban and suburban districts.
Mirroring the election results in Canada, opposition leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat (likely by a resounding double digit margin).
May 3, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Mirroring the election results in Canada, opposition leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat (likely by a resounding double digit margin).
ABC has called the election for Labor in what appears to be a landslide victory. It's especially incredible to see Labor ahead in first preference votes, even with a strong showing by the Greens. #Australia
May 3, 2025 at 10:31 AM
ABC has called the election for Labor in what appears to be a landslide victory. It's especially incredible to see Labor ahead in first preference votes, even with a strong showing by the Greens. #Australia
With around 5% of the vote counted, Labour's on track for a comfortable win. Caveat: the early votes or "pre-polls" aren't included yet. #Australia
May 3, 2025 at 9:36 AM
With around 5% of the vote counted, Labour's on track for a comfortable win. Caveat: the early votes or "pre-polls" aren't included yet. #Australia
CBC has declared that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat - and by a fairly substantial margin.
April 29, 2025 at 8:55 AM
CBC has declared that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat - and by a fairly substantial margin.
Deal indeed reached w/ Slovak government on gas transit language.
March 6, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Deal indeed reached w/ Slovak government on gas transit language.
While it is a popular pastime to dismiss EU initiatives as mere words lacking action, Member States have genuinely been bulking up over recent years. Announcements today shouldn't be discounted - EU will continue delivering on defence. Chart from FT.
March 4, 2025 at 8:12 PM
While it is a popular pastime to dismiss EU initiatives as mere words lacking action, Member States have genuinely been bulking up over recent years. Announcements today shouldn't be discounted - EU will continue delivering on defence. Chart from FT.
Covered political parties & polarisation w/ Comparative Politics students last week. Despite rise of far-right, a key advantage Europe has over US is it remains fairly cohesive, due in part to multi-party coalitions as norm. Polarisation levels in US were already dire before Trump was elected again.
March 2, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Covered political parties & polarisation w/ Comparative Politics students last week. Despite rise of far-right, a key advantage Europe has over US is it remains fairly cohesive, due in part to multi-party coalitions as norm. Polarisation levels in US were already dire before Trump was elected again.
(2) Biden managed to rush in a year's worth of supplies into Ukraine before end of term. That, combined w/ EU's support, should sustain Ukraine for good while (at least on defensive posture).
March 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM
(2) Biden managed to rush in a year's worth of supplies into Ukraine before end of term. That, combined w/ EU's support, should sustain Ukraine for good while (at least on defensive posture).
Two points: (1) while the US provides distinct capabilities to Ukraine that Europe cannot easily replace, Europe provides bulk of aid (enough to let Ukraine sustain robust defence that delivers severe problems for Russia offensive).
March 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Two points: (1) while the US provides distinct capabilities to Ukraine that Europe cannot easily replace, Europe provides bulk of aid (enough to let Ukraine sustain robust defence that delivers severe problems for Russia offensive).
A grand coalition (which appears plausible via exit polls) would be an ideal outcome. If govt performs well, it can build on it next election. If it struggles, two of the more mainstream parties (Greens & FDP) out of government could potentially collect disillusioned votes rather than only AfD.
February 23, 2025 at 5:30 PM
A grand coalition (which appears plausible via exit polls) would be an ideal outcome. If govt performs well, it can build on it next election. If it struggles, two of the more mainstream parties (Greens & FDP) out of government could potentially collect disillusioned votes rather than only AfD.
Adam Gray (D) now looking really good in #CA13 w/ cured ballots still to come. Keeping Rs at 220 seats in House, w/ vacancies/special elections to come is a big deal. Rs will enjoy trifecta so can't blame Dems for failures but probably won't be able to get much done w/ no margin to spare.
November 27, 2024 at 12:00 PM
Adam Gray (D) now looking really good in #CA13 w/ cured ballots still to come. Keeping Rs at 220 seats in House, w/ vacancies/special elections to come is a big deal. Rs will enjoy trifecta so can't blame Dems for failures but probably won't be able to get much done w/ no margin to spare.
Derek Tran (D) won last night's OC batch 54-46%, putting him up 36 votes over Michelle Steel (R). Remaining vote from LA should pad margin. Unless OC batches still to come are particularly unfavorable, he appears to be in strong position. Now let's see if Adam Gray #CA13 can also get over line.
November 17, 2024 at 9:29 AM
Derek Tran (D) won last night's OC batch 54-46%, putting him up 36 votes over Michelle Steel (R). Remaining vote from LA should pad margin. Unless OC batches still to come are particularly unfavorable, he appears to be in strong position. Now let's see if Adam Gray #CA13 can also get over line.
In #CA13, wait is still on for more mail from Merced & Stanislaus. Adam Gray needs them to go solidly for him (feasible given how later-arriving mail has worked out for Dems in CA though recent updates to this race haven't been as rosy). If Ds can snag both seats, R ceiling would be down to 220.
November 14, 2024 at 3:46 AM
In #CA13, wait is still on for more mail from Merced & Stanislaus. Adam Gray needs them to go solidly for him (feasible given how later-arriving mail has worked out for Dems in CA though recent updates to this race haven't been as rosy). If Ds can snag both seats, R ceiling would be down to 220.
Tran (D) has closed gap to Steel to 349 votes in #CA45. Certainly not a lock but Tran is now favored to win seat w/ more mail and provisionals still to come including some in the smaller but heavily Dem-leaning LA part of district. A D win would put 221 seat House ceiling (one less than 2022) on Rs.
November 14, 2024 at 3:46 AM
Tran (D) has closed gap to Steel to 349 votes in #CA45. Certainly not a lock but Tran is now favored to win seat w/ more mail and provisionals still to come including some in the smaller but heavily Dem-leaning LA part of district. A D win would put 221 seat House ceiling (one less than 2022) on Rs.
Gap between McCormick and Casey in Pennsylvania has narrowed to 29,531, an improvement of around 10K over the past couple days for Casey. NBC estimate (unclear how accurate it is) says 97K ballots still to count. Tall order for Casey - but it depends on where remaining vote is from.
November 12, 2024 at 9:52 PM
Gap between McCormick and Casey in Pennsylvania has narrowed to 29,531, an improvement of around 10K over the past couple days for Casey. NBC estimate (unclear how accurate it is) says 97K ballots still to count. Tall order for Casey - but it depends on where remaining vote is from.
Latest OC update sees Tran again cut into Steel's lead - he is now just 3,908 behind. Still a lot of outstanding mail in Orange and a little in LA - definitely enough for Tran to win...if he maintains these large margins in the next batches.
November 12, 2024 at 1:19 AM
Latest OC update sees Tran again cut into Steel's lead - he is now just 3,908 behind. Still a lot of outstanding mail in Orange and a little in LA - definitely enough for Tran to win...if he maintains these large margins in the next batches.
Ciscomani (R) pads lead in #AZ06 by 1600 votes - now 3,702 ahead over Engel (D). Unfortunately for Engel, it was one of the Pima batches - she probably needed them all to go her way as Cochise will boost Ciscomani. Still many ballots to go (62,915 in Pima, 27,400 in Cochise but not all in district).
November 12, 2024 at 12:12 AM
Ciscomani (R) pads lead in #AZ06 by 1600 votes - now 3,702 ahead over Engel (D). Unfortunately for Engel, it was one of the Pima batches - she probably needed them all to go her way as Cochise will boost Ciscomani. Still many ballots to go (62,915 in Pima, 27,400 in Cochise but not all in district).
Democrats also once again saw relative improvement in Alaska, as they have every cycle since 2008. In a more favourable year (say +4), Democrats could easily cut natural Republican advantage to below 10% & even more with strong candidate, investment, & especially favourable climate.
November 11, 2024 at 11:51 PM
Democrats also once again saw relative improvement in Alaska, as they have every cycle since 2008. In a more favourable year (say +4), Democrats could easily cut natural Republican advantage to below 10% & even more with strong candidate, investment, & especially favourable climate.
First positive trend for Democrats in Wisconsin since 2008. Assuming a uniform national swing, a tied popular vote would have yielded a 0.3% victory for Harris (based on projections giving Trump a 1.5% PV lead). Good news for Dems in 2028.
November 11, 2024 at 11:20 PM
First positive trend for Democrats in Wisconsin since 2008. Assuming a uniform national swing, a tied popular vote would have yielded a 0.3% victory for Harris (based on projections giving Trump a 1.5% PV lead). Good news for Dems in 2028.
Derek Tran closes gap to Michelle Steel by 773 votes after latest LA county batch. Feasible for Tran (given Dem rates of later-arriving mail ballots so far) but he'll need to win upcoming OC batches by fairly large margins: 6,128 behind now. #CA45 #California #House
November 11, 2024 at 1:34 AM
Derek Tran closes gap to Michelle Steel by 773 votes after latest LA county batch. Feasible for Tran (given Dem rates of later-arriving mail ballots so far) but he'll need to win upcoming OC batches by fairly large margins: 6,128 behind now. #CA45 #California #House
Which state will be easier target for Dems in 2028 - Pennsylvania or Georgia? PA became redder btw 2004 & 2020 but swung back to Dems this time relative to national average (assuming 1.5% Trump PV). GA continued leftward trend. If two states continue 2024 trend, Dems could win both w/out PV (!).
November 11, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Which state will be easier target for Dems in 2028 - Pennsylvania or Georgia? PA became redder btw 2004 & 2020 but swung back to Dems this time relative to national average (assuming 1.5% Trump PV). GA continued leftward trend. If two states continue 2024 trend, Dems could win both w/out PV (!).
After Democrats took leads in #CA27 & #CA47 w/ counting of later-arriving batches, #CA13 race is next best prospects for a pickup. Duarte (R) currently leads 51.3-48.7% for 3,261 cushion over Gray (D) but Democratic-leaning Merced and Stanislaus counties still have a lot of vote outstanding.
November 10, 2024 at 11:15 AM
George Whitesides (D) just took a 2100+ vote lead over incumbent Mike Garcia (R) in CA-27. This seat is now looking really good for a flip for Democrats.
November 10, 2024 at 12:58 AM
George Whitesides (D) just took a 2100+ vote lead over incumbent Mike Garcia (R) in CA-27. This seat is now looking really good for a flip for Democrats.