Shaina Sangha
@shaina-sangha.bsky.social
Policymaking team and formerly public finances @instituteforgovernment.org.uk.
Former parliamentary staffer.
Former parliamentary staffer.
Pinned
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
So we are already back to the levels of migration of the early 2010s and declining faster... let's hope all those new restrictions, based on previous higher numbers, don't make Britain massively unattractive to those migrants the government DOES wish to attract.
Net migration fell sharply agaim to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, having been 344k in 2024 and 848k in 2023. But falling immigration has been the biggest secret - and it is time for the media and political debate to catch up with this change
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
Net migration, the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was 345,000 in 2024 according to revised figures.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:56 AM
So we are already back to the levels of migration of the early 2010s and declining faster... let's hope all those new restrictions, based on previous higher numbers, don't make Britain massively unattractive to those migrants the government DOES wish to attract.
Budget news of international student levy at £925 flat rate, not as % of tuition fees.
This is likely better re. reducing no. coming to UK on student visas to work. Flat rate hits so-called "visa farm" HE providers offering cheaper courses, w. less impact on elite, high-fee institutions. 🧵
This is likely better re. reducing no. coming to UK on student visas to work. Flat rate hits so-called "visa farm" HE providers offering cheaper courses, w. less impact on elite, high-fee institutions. 🧵
November 26, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Budget news of international student levy at £925 flat rate, not as % of tuition fees.
This is likely better re. reducing no. coming to UK on student visas to work. Flat rate hits so-called "visa farm" HE providers offering cheaper courses, w. less impact on elite, high-fee institutions. 🧵
This is likely better re. reducing no. coming to UK on student visas to work. Flat rate hits so-called "visa farm" HE providers offering cheaper courses, w. less impact on elite, high-fee institutions. 🧵
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
"Either damaging cuts to unprotected services or fictitious spending numbers"
Read @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social verdict on today's budget and what it means for public services on our live blog www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Read @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social verdict on today's budget and what it means for public services on our live blog www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
November 26, 2025 at 4:09 PM
"Either damaging cuts to unprotected services or fictitious spending numbers"
Read @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social verdict on today's budget and what it means for public services on our live blog www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Read @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social verdict on today's budget and what it means for public services on our live blog www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
'Little overall sense of what the chancellor wants to achieve with the tax system' @gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Read the latest comments from our IfG experts on the Chancellor's budget before our WEBINAR at 4pm!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Read the latest comments from our IfG experts on the Chancellor's budget before our WEBINAR at 4pm!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announce tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 2:33 PM
'Little overall sense of what the chancellor wants to achieve with the tax system' @gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Read the latest comments from our IfG experts on the Chancellor's budget before our WEBINAR at 4pm!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Read the latest comments from our IfG experts on the Chancellor's budget before our WEBINAR at 4pm!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Side point, but it can’t be said often enough that so much of today’s political debate is taken up with migration, when it is *plunging* 📉 (from OBR docs):
November 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Side point, but it can’t be said often enough that so much of today’s political debate is taken up with migration, when it is *plunging* 📉 (from OBR docs):
Pleased to have written an op-ed for @civilserviceworld.bsky.social outlining some of the lessons from our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report, Ministers Reflect on the Treasury.
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
Ministers’ own words are instructive on what has to change in the Treasury
HMT is a big beast in need of some housetraining but ministers outside the department also need to learn how to make the Treasury work for them
www.civilserviceworld.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Pleased to have written an op-ed for @civilserviceworld.bsky.social outlining some of the lessons from our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report, Ministers Reflect on the Treasury.
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
It's a really good episode, Jill's question puts them on the spot
Thanks to Ed Balls and George Osborne for giving such interesting and different answers to my #Budget question on this week's @polcurrency.bsky.social pod (and for shoutouts to @instituteforgovernment.org.uk open.spotify.com/episode/6MC7... Hope Rachel was listening..
EMQs: Is it time for a Tory/Labour truce?
open.spotify.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
It's a really good episode, Jill's question puts them on the spot
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Rachel Reeves told the FT how helpful she's found Jeremy Hunt's advice on being chancellor - I wonder if this is one of the things they've discussed?
From the great new IfG report from Shaina and Paddy - essential reading ahead of the Budget!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
From the great new IfG report from Shaina and Paddy - essential reading ahead of the Budget!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
November 24, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Rachel Reeves told the FT how helpful she's found Jeremy Hunt's advice on being chancellor - I wonder if this is one of the things they've discussed?
From the great new IfG report from Shaina and Paddy - essential reading ahead of the Budget!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
From the great new IfG report from Shaina and Paddy - essential reading ahead of the Budget!
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
New paper, 'Ministers reflect on the Treasury' from @paddy-mcalary.bsky.social and me for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk. Pre-budget, we've compiled insights from 10 years of Ministers Reflect interviews, plus rex from the IfG catalogue on HMT. Favourite quotes to follow! 1/🧵 tinyurl.com/38anhkc7
![Quote graphic with “#Ministers Reflect” and a statement about the chancellor’s power over money, attributed to Jeremy Hunt — Chancellor of the Exchequer (2022–24), whose portrait appears to the right of the quote. The quote reads: "I think most of your power does revolve around the decisions you can make over money [...as chancellor] that puts you in a very different position to every other cabinet minister, including the prime minister." The Institute for Government logo is in the corner of the image.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:yafpzg4e4ibpubp33xsq5v7q/bafkreigoe7oaqk4kw45ex74usg7hdlkwwkyrhgqk7qn6iacyfcrrujfiym@jpeg)
November 24, 2025 at 1:31 PM
New paper, 'Ministers reflect on the Treasury' from @paddy-mcalary.bsky.social and me for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk. Pre-budget, we've compiled insights from 10 years of Ministers Reflect interviews, plus rex from the IfG catalogue on HMT. Favourite quotes to follow! 1/🧵 tinyurl.com/38anhkc7
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new asylum reforms?
Former permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department @sirjjkc.bsky.social examines some of the main legal implications of the proposals www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
Former permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department @sirjjkc.bsky.social examines some of the main legal implications of the proposals www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new asylum reforms? | Institute for Government
Some of the government’s proposals are thin on details, others are likely to be tested in the courts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 4:43 PM
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new asylum reforms?
Former permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department @sirjjkc.bsky.social examines some of the main legal implications of the proposals www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
Former permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department @sirjjkc.bsky.social examines some of the main legal implications of the proposals www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Hot on the heels of yesterday's Covid inquiry report on decision making, @shaina-sangha.bsky.social and I have a new report out today looking at how combined epidemiological-economic modelling could help government better prepare for future pandemics www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Hot on the heels of yesterday's Covid inquiry report on decision making, @shaina-sangha.bsky.social and I have a new report out today looking at how combined epidemiological-economic modelling could help government better prepare for future pandemics www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:38 AM
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
I know it is much more entertaining - I'm guilty too - to follow the briefing and counter-briefing from No 10 but this is actually news you can use to understand what's going on with govt.
Gov just published a new list cabinet committees. In short, looks like (1) big vote of confidence in Darren Jones from the PM, (2) existing missions + immigration are top of the government's agenda, (3) PM wants things to happen faster, and (4) Rayner's priorities perhaps no longer front of mind?🧵
List of Cabinet Committees and their membership
www.gov.uk
November 20, 2025 at 10:52 AM
I know it is much more entertaining - I'm guilty too - to follow the briefing and counter-briefing from No 10 but this is actually news you can use to understand what's going on with govt.
Great report from Sophie and Nehal, as part of our Policymaking for Left-behind groups series, on a group of children that can absolutely be better supported to thrive from an early age.
A lot of excellent and surprising data work in there.
A lot of excellent and surprising data work in there.
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for Government
Early attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Great report from Sophie and Nehal, as part of our Policymaking for Left-behind groups series, on a group of children that can absolutely be better supported to thrive from an early age.
A lot of excellent and surprising data work in there.
A lot of excellent and surprising data work in there.
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Lack of planning has hit Labour’s efforts to fix public services, says thinktank.
Great summary of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's analysis by @kiranstacey.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Great summary of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's analysis by @kiranstacey.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Lack of planning has hit Labour’s efforts to fix public services, says thinktank
Keir Starmer accused of failing to adequately strategise while in opposition, leading to uncoordinated policymaking
www.theguardian.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Lack of planning has hit Labour’s efforts to fix public services, says thinktank.
Great summary of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's analysis by @kiranstacey.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Great summary of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's analysis by @kiranstacey.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Great event from colleagues at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk as @stephenkb.bsky.social makes the important point that govt won't talk about. NIC rise/min wage/visa changes are an unexploded bomb for the government's public service reform/workforce plans. Prioritisation! Prioritisation!
TODAY | How successfully have Labour run public services?
Join us live at 10:00 as our IfG experts present the key findings from our 2025 Public Services Performance Tracker, with @stephenkb.bsky.social @markwfranks.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
Join us live at 10:00 as our IfG experts present the key findings from our 2025 Public Services Performance Tracker, with @stephenkb.bsky.social @markwfranks.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
November 19, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Great event from colleagues at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk as @stephenkb.bsky.social makes the important point that govt won't talk about. NIC rise/min wage/visa changes are an unexploded bomb for the government's public service reform/workforce plans. Prioritisation! Prioritisation!
This is really part of a longer story about the ONS, and the picture we have (or don't) of the state and society. The move from International Passenger Surveys to DWP data should improve our understanding of what Brits are doing at least.
Worth noting:
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
November 18, 2025 at 6:05 PM
This is really part of a longer story about the ONS, and the picture we have (or don't) of the state and society. The move from International Passenger Surveys to DWP data should improve our understanding of what Brits are doing at least.
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Guardian’s top story is @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social’s analysis of NHS performance, the latest release from Public Service Performance Tracker 2025.
There are some positives from past years but these risk being undermined by loss of GP partners, social care failures and chaotic approach to reform
There are some positives from past years but these risk being undermined by loss of GP partners, social care failures and chaotic approach to reform
Wes Streeting accused of ‘chaotic and incoherent approach’ to NHS reform
Exclusive: thinktank report finds health secretary has failed to improve productivity, with the health service unlikely to meet its targets
www.theguardian.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Guardian’s top story is @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social’s analysis of NHS performance, the latest release from Public Service Performance Tracker 2025.
There are some positives from past years but these risk being undermined by loss of GP partners, social care failures and chaotic approach to reform
There are some positives from past years but these risk being undermined by loss of GP partners, social care failures and chaotic approach to reform
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
Can't pass judgement on most of this, but the estimated savings in the NHS of £11bn are incredibly dubious and the proposed shift to a social insurance model is an infuriating zombie idea that is not supported by evidence
Some thoughts on the NHS proposals in this paper...
Some thoughts on the NHS proposals in this paper...
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
October 30, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Can't pass judgement on most of this, but the estimated savings in the NHS of £11bn are incredibly dubious and the proposed shift to a social insurance model is an infuriating zombie idea that is not supported by evidence
Some thoughts on the NHS proposals in this paper...
Some thoughts on the NHS proposals in this paper...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
and a lot of other things messing up the economy - just all seems a bit -- late?
The government has finally decided it can talk about the economic impact of Brexit.
But that simply exposes the limits of its plans to deal with Brexit’s consequences, says @jillongovt.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
But that simply exposes the limits of its plans to deal with Brexit’s consequences, says @jillongovt.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
Rachel Reeves cannot start to blame Brexit now for her economic fix | Institute for Government
Why is the government talking about Brexit and the economy again?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 4, 2025 at 8:28 AM
and a lot of other things messing up the economy - just all seems a bit -- late?
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
NEW REPORT: Local authorities have been struggling with pressures from austeirty for years, but there are signs that pressure is now particularly acute
As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services
🧵👇 on findings
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services
🧵👇 on findings
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Performance Tracker 2025: Local government overview | Institute for Government
The government is making good progress towards rebalancing local government funding. But the sector shows signs of mounting financial distress.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
October 16, 2025 at 8:58 AM
NEW REPORT: Local authorities have been struggling with pressures from austeirty for years, but there are signs that pressure is now particularly acute
As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services
🧵👇 on findings
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services
🧵👇 on findings
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Shaina Sangha
NEW: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk have published pt1 of Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 covering local government finances and overall performance, adult social care, children's social care and homelessness
Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social
Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social
Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 | Institute for Government
Labour’s public service plans are less than the sum of their parts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
October 15, 2025 at 6:04 PM
NEW: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk have published pt1 of Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 covering local government finances and overall performance, adult social care, children's social care and homelessness
Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social
Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social