Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
@rmcelreath.bsky.social
Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/
Pinned
If you hate statistics like I do, then you'll love my free lectures. Putting science before statistics, 20 lectures from basics of inference & causal modeling to multilevel models & dynamic state space models. It's all free, made with love and sympathy. 🧪 #stats www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...
My department is holding its annual xmas movie night and there is only one valid choice, the most xmas movie ever made
November 11, 2025 at 9:16 AM
My department is holding its annual xmas movie night and there is only one valid choice, the most xmas movie ever made
Teaching some actual anthropology this week and next
November 11, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Teaching some actual anthropology this week and next
False. There is no such thing as an introductory statistics textbook
November 11, 2025 at 7:57 AM
False. There is no such thing as an introductory statistics textbook
So many nonsense ad hoc pipelines could be prevented by requiring that they work on synthetic data.
I tend to think of experiments as special cases of inference, since most of the problems I work on cannot be studied in experiments. But I get that many researchers see experiments as base analogy.
I tend to think of experiments as special cases of inference, since most of the problems I work on cannot be studied in experiments. But I get that many researchers see experiments as base analogy.
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:41 PM
So many nonsense ad hoc pipelines could be prevented by requiring that they work on synthetic data.
I tend to think of experiments as special cases of inference, since most of the problems I work on cannot be studied in experiments. But I get that many researchers see experiments as base analogy.
I tend to think of experiments as special cases of inference, since most of the problems I work on cannot be studied in experiments. But I get that many researchers see experiments as base analogy.
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
November 10, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
elevanth.org
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
I'm participating in an "Open Science Exploratory Roundtable" in the Max Planck Society later this week, so bumping my grumpy thoughts about open science again. I'm as curious as everyone else to see what a club of competitive narcissists who succeeded under the status quo (the MPG) can manage!
I try to practice forgiveness, so I will meditate on that. But as a general meta-science note, in one case the evidence against Pruitt was that he left in a spreadsheet a formula that copied data from one treatment and added a constant to it in another treatment. It's like:
November 7, 2025 at 11:36 AM
I try to practice forgiveness, so I will meditate on that. But as a general meta-science note, in one case the evidence against Pruitt was that he left in a spreadsheet a formula that copied data from one treatment and added a constant to it in another treatment. It's like:
This is great. I am not a fan of the oscillator example - makes it seem like a physics niche thing. But so useful for us population-thinkers. I might write up a post using a population dynamics differential equation example. If I can finish cloning myself. Yeah. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE-h...
Why Laplace transforms are so useful
YouTube video by 3Blue1Brown
www.youtube.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:15 PM
This is great. I am not a fan of the oscillator example - makes it seem like a physics niche thing. But so useful for us population-thinkers. I might write up a post using a population dynamics differential equation example. If I can finish cloning myself. Yeah. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE-h...
I am slow to react to this recent Stockholm Declaration on scientific publishing. A lot of it sounds good, but I don't see how we get from here to there. I worry nothing substantial will happen until the cost disease kills the host.
![3. Incentive systems to merit quality, not quantity
Reward scientific achievement based primarily on quality—not quantity measures of today’s ‘reputation economy’ metric system [8].
Discourage ‘salami-slicing’ of results to obtain ‘least publishable units’; reduce the abundance of review articles (meta-analyses) and commentaries that over-burden reviewers and can too easily be generated using AI.
Rankings of academic achievement with metrics such as citation counts, ‘journal impact factor’ (JIF) and ‘publication number’ must be used responsibly because they often do not correlate with research quality [9] (see also CoARA—Reforming Research Assessment). 7](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreieiasfhsrhanmpgthgdkcub5gsezdu5yy6ekaiv633gvvzygdwmxe@jpeg)
November 6, 2025 at 9:33 AM
I am slow to react to this recent Stockholm Declaration on scientific publishing. A lot of it sounds good, but I don't see how we get from here to there. I worry nothing substantial will happen until the cost disease kills the host.
To update my list of Celtic words used in English, I am being told that "iron" is an early Celtic borrowing into early Germanic, as Germanic ppl (South Scandinavians at the time) moved into central Europe. So like 1000-500 BCE.
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
To update my list of Celtic words used in English, I am being told that "iron" is an early Celtic borrowing into early Germanic, as Germanic ppl (South Scandinavians at the time) moved into central Europe. So like 1000-500 BCE.
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
The concept of "fitness" is central to evolutionary biology but it's not entirely worked out. There are multiple definitions, doubts about predictive power, problems with internal consistency. Here's a paper from last year attempting to solve some of these problems. doi.org/10.1093/evol...
November 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The concept of "fitness" is central to evolutionary biology but it's not entirely worked out. There are multiple definitions, doubts about predictive power, problems with internal consistency. Here's a paper from last year attempting to solve some of these problems. doi.org/10.1093/evol...
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
So last night I was strumming "Zombie" by The Cranberries and my son heard and came running in, "Is that Zombie by The Cranberries?" He knew what the song is about! Then I taught him the chords. Small parenting victories. Can learn the song watching O'Riordan in this www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Av...
Zombie (Acoustic Version) - The Cranberries
YouTube video by Nomen Nominandum
www.youtube.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:03 AM
So last night I was strumming "Zombie" by The Cranberries and my son heard and came running in, "Is that Zombie by The Cranberries?" He knew what the song is about! Then I taught him the chords. Small parenting victories. Can learn the song watching O'Riordan in this www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Av...
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
Anyway, we need some joy, so here's the Egyptian foreign minister being given a Lego Pyramid by the Danish foreign minister.
November 3, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Anyway, we need some joy, so here's the Egyptian foreign minister being given a Lego Pyramid by the Danish foreign minister.
This post looks great for someone with solid Bayes skills who wants to work for public good. Requires Dutch language proficiency, but if you speak German and English in my experience you can already understand like 30% of spoken Dutch so could learn it pretty fast!
The Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Authority at the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Authority is looking for an applied statistician with expertise in Bayesian statistics or causal inference
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/03/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/03/t...
The Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Authority at the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Authority is looking for an applied statistician with expertise in Bayesian statistics or causal infer...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 4, 2025 at 7:21 AM
This post looks great for someone with solid Bayes skills who wants to work for public good. Requires Dutch language proficiency, but if you speak German and English in my experience you can already understand like 30% of spoken Dutch so could learn it pretty fast!
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).
Others, please share
Others, please share
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
November 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
This November, like every November, I am teaching basic research proposal writing to the new phd cohort at my institute. Here is the 2 page template we start with and adapt. Link to LaTeX github.com/rmcelreath/P...
![\title[PhD Plan for CANDIDATE]{Department of \mbox{Full Luxury Galactic Metascience}\\PhD Plan for CANDIDATE}
% list committee members
\author[]{Committee:\\
Prof.~MEMBER1\\
Dr.~MEMBER2\\
Dr.~MEMBER3}
\date{\today}
\begin{document}
\maketitle% this prints the handout title, author, and date
\begin{marginfigure}[-5.2cm]
\includegraphics[width=3.5cm]{Minerva.pdf}
\end{marginfigure}
\section{Phenomenon}
The subject matter to be addressed. What is the question? Citation for background are useful, but don't do a full lit review (yet).\cite{HenrichMcElreath:2003} Additional references can be included at the end bibliography by using \verb|\nocite|. \nocite{NBGA2005}
\section{Theoretical Perspective}
The framework for explaining the phenomenon. What are the implications of theory? If more than one theory is relevant, how do the implications differ? What are the current holes in the theory or theories?
\section{Approach}
Modeling and empirical research approach to address the theory/ies nominated above. Important thing is to \emph{justify} the approach in terms of theory.
\section{Specifics of Approach}
Outline any special skills, equipment, or techniques that will be required. This includes, in the case of field research, a paragraph on the background of the field location. Data analysis approach needs a sketch. Can use citation\cite{Merowetal2014} for further detail.
\section{Expected Products}
A list of the (usually 3) articles expected for completion of the PhD. Think of each as a fantasy abstract.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \emph{The Evolution of Human Uniqueness.} There is wide agreement that humans are unique. But it is rarely asked: Have they always been unique? In this paper, we derive a general uniqueness theorem that states that any unique species must have been less unique at some point in the past. This theorem has implications for the achievement of world peace.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreihnoflhyf2lajrvcsovawt3xr47qlm76jfhzet5lqumkabtzufvoe@jpeg)
November 3, 2025 at 7:45 AM
This November, like every November, I am teaching basic research proposal writing to the new phd cohort at my institute. Here is the 2 page template we start with and adapt. Link to LaTeX github.com/rmcelreath/P...
I am slow cooking some red beef curry and my cat Mischka is on duty
October 31, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I am slow cooking some red beef curry and my cat Mischka is on duty
There are so few Celtic words used in English. The ones I know off the top of my head:
trousers
smithereens
bog
galore
whiskey
bard
hooligan
clan
penguin
trousers
smithereens
bog
galore
whiskey
bard
hooligan
clan
penguin
October 30, 2025 at 12:33 PM
There are so few Celtic words used in English. The ones I know off the top of my head:
trousers
smithereens
bog
galore
whiskey
bard
hooligan
clan
penguin
trousers
smithereens
bog
galore
whiskey
bard
hooligan
clan
penguin
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
Which reminds me of this old classic on the Noise Miners.
“'Noise mining is a funny thing,' he said. 'When you first see a bit of noise, it doesn’t look so impressive. But as you work it out of the rock, it gets more and more refined.' This process, he explained, is called 'shucking.'"
“'Noise mining is a funny thing,' he said. 'When you first see a bit of noise, it doesn’t look so impressive. But as you work it out of the rock, it gets more and more refined.' This process, he explained, is called 'shucking.'"
October 30, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Which reminds me of this old classic on the Noise Miners.
“'Noise mining is a funny thing,' he said. 'When you first see a bit of noise, it doesn’t look so impressive. But as you work it out of the rock, it gets more and more refined.' This process, he explained, is called 'shucking.'"
“'Noise mining is a funny thing,' he said. 'When you first see a bit of noise, it doesn’t look so impressive. But as you work it out of the rock, it gets more and more refined.' This process, he explained, is called 'shucking.'"
reading the NL election news and thinking of this
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
reading the NL election news and thinking of this
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
This is a funny thing about the Turkish language. Typically it's an act of endearment for a mom to call her child "annem" (my mom) or "annecim/anneciğim" (my dearest mom) or an aunt to call their niece "my auntie", etc. It conveys love, humility, respect and care for the younger one.
Since I am kinship posting, there is also reciprocal kinship terminology in which mother's call their children "mother". It ain't rare! Kinship terms just don't, in general, mean specific biological descent relationships. They are much more fun than that linguistics.stackexchange.com/questions/28...
October 29, 2025 at 5:08 PM
This is a funny thing about the Turkish language. Typically it's an act of endearment for a mom to call her child "annem" (my mom) or "annecim/anneciğim" (my dearest mom) or an aunt to call their niece "my auntie", etc. It conveys love, humility, respect and care for the younger one.
Kinship terminology rarely perfectly reflects biological kinship. The root meaning of the Indo-European word "mother" isn't even "biological mother". The ancestral Indo-European system, the patrilineal Omaha system, calls your mother's sister and all women on mother's side "mother" (B in diagram).
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Kinship terminology rarely perfectly reflects biological kinship. The root meaning of the Indo-European word "mother" isn't even "biological mother". The ancestral Indo-European system, the patrilineal Omaha system, calls your mother's sister and all women on mother's side "mother" (B in diagram).
Reposted by Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
We are very excited to announce that we are opening applications to join the ReproducibiliTea Steering Committee at the beginning of 2026!
🔹 Full Announcement:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
✍️ Application Form:
forms.gle/R8FSHGJCFVk2...
🔹 Full Announcement:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
✍️ Application Form:
forms.gle/R8FSHGJCFVk2...
October 28, 2025 at 5:25 PM
We are very excited to announce that we are opening applications to join the ReproducibiliTea Steering Committee at the beginning of 2026!
🔹 Full Announcement:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
✍️ Application Form:
forms.gle/R8FSHGJCFVk2...
🔹 Full Announcement:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
✍️ Application Form:
forms.gle/R8FSHGJCFVk2...
Uyen Ninh's shorts are fantastic studies of contemporary German culture 10/10 www.youtube.com/shorts/3Z0QH...
What my German bf eats
YouTube video by Uyen Ninh
www.youtube.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Uyen Ninh's shorts are fantastic studies of contemporary German culture 10/10 www.youtube.com/shorts/3Z0QH...