Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
@rmcelreath.bsky.social
Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/
My department is holding its annual xmas movie night and there is only one valid choice, the most xmas movie ever made
November 11, 2025 at 9:16 AM
My department is holding its annual xmas movie night and there is only one valid choice, the most xmas movie ever made
Teaching some actual anthropology this week and next
November 11, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Teaching some actual anthropology this week and next
The relevant bit of grump from the quoted post (left). And age distribution of Max Planck directors (right)
November 10, 2025 at 8:42 AM
The relevant bit of grump from the quoted post (left). And age distribution of Max Planck directors (right)
I try to practice forgiveness, so I will meditate on that. But as a general meta-science note, in one case the evidence against Pruitt was that he left in a spreadsheet a formula that copied data from one treatment and added a constant to it in another treatment. It's like:
November 7, 2025 at 11:36 AM
I try to practice forgiveness, so I will meditate on that. But as a general meta-science note, in one case the evidence against Pruitt was that he left in a spreadsheet a formula that copied data from one treatment and added a constant to it in another treatment. It's like:
I am slow to react to this recent Stockholm Declaration on scientific publishing. A lot of it sounds good, but I don't see how we get from here to there. I worry nothing substantial will happen until the cost disease kills the host.
![3. Incentive systems to merit quality, not quantity
Reward scientific achievement based primarily on quality—not quantity measures of today’s ‘reputation economy’ metric system [8].
Discourage ‘salami-slicing’ of results to obtain ‘least publishable units’; reduce the abundance of review articles (meta-analyses) and commentaries that over-burden reviewers and can too easily be generated using AI.
Rankings of academic achievement with metrics such as citation counts, ‘journal impact factor’ (JIF) and ‘publication number’ must be used responsibly because they often do not correlate with research quality [9] (see also CoARA—Reforming Research Assessment). 7](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreieiasfhsrhanmpgthgdkcub5gsezdu5yy6ekaiv633gvvzygdwmxe@jpeg)
November 6, 2025 at 9:33 AM
I am slow to react to this recent Stockholm Declaration on scientific publishing. A lot of it sounds good, but I don't see how we get from here to there. I worry nothing substantial will happen until the cost disease kills the host.
To update my list of Celtic words used in English, I am being told that "iron" is an early Celtic borrowing into early Germanic, as Germanic ppl (South Scandinavians at the time) moved into central Europe. So like 1000-500 BCE.
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
To update my list of Celtic words used in English, I am being told that "iron" is an early Celtic borrowing into early Germanic, as Germanic ppl (South Scandinavians at the time) moved into central Europe. So like 1000-500 BCE.
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
Another borrowing from same time is rich/Reich!
The concept of "fitness" is central to evolutionary biology but it's not entirely worked out. There are multiple definitions, doubts about predictive power, problems with internal consistency. Here's a paper from last year attempting to solve some of these problems. doi.org/10.1093/evol...
November 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The concept of "fitness" is central to evolutionary biology but it's not entirely worked out. There are multiple definitions, doubts about predictive power, problems with internal consistency. Here's a paper from last year attempting to solve some of these problems. doi.org/10.1093/evol...
And there is a recorded lecture of me doing the derivations on the Youtube www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTc0...
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
And there is a recorded lecture of me doing the derivations on the Youtube www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTc0...
This is one of those technical things, like correctly defining a p-value, that just can't be done easily and correctly at the intro level. But if you want the technical explanation, see notes for week 4 of my evo game theory course. PDF link: github.com/rmcelreath/V...
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This is one of those technical things, like correctly defining a p-value, that just can't be done easily and correctly at the intro level. But if you want the technical explanation, see notes for week 4 of my evo game theory course. PDF link: github.com/rmcelreath/V...
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
But the bear at least left the carp in the bathtub or?
November 4, 2025 at 7:35 AM
But the bear at least left the carp in the bathtub or?
This November, like every November, I am teaching basic research proposal writing to the new phd cohort at my institute. Here is the 2 page template we start with and adapt. Link to LaTeX github.com/rmcelreath/P...
![\title[PhD Plan for CANDIDATE]{Department of \mbox{Full Luxury Galactic Metascience}\\PhD Plan for CANDIDATE}
% list committee members
\author[]{Committee:\\
Prof.~MEMBER1\\
Dr.~MEMBER2\\
Dr.~MEMBER3}
\date{\today}
\begin{document}
\maketitle% this prints the handout title, author, and date
\begin{marginfigure}[-5.2cm]
\includegraphics[width=3.5cm]{Minerva.pdf}
\end{marginfigure}
\section{Phenomenon}
The subject matter to be addressed. What is the question? Citation for background are useful, but don't do a full lit review (yet).\cite{HenrichMcElreath:2003} Additional references can be included at the end bibliography by using \verb|\nocite|. \nocite{NBGA2005}
\section{Theoretical Perspective}
The framework for explaining the phenomenon. What are the implications of theory? If more than one theory is relevant, how do the implications differ? What are the current holes in the theory or theories?
\section{Approach}
Modeling and empirical research approach to address the theory/ies nominated above. Important thing is to \emph{justify} the approach in terms of theory.
\section{Specifics of Approach}
Outline any special skills, equipment, or techniques that will be required. This includes, in the case of field research, a paragraph on the background of the field location. Data analysis approach needs a sketch. Can use citation\cite{Merowetal2014} for further detail.
\section{Expected Products}
A list of the (usually 3) articles expected for completion of the PhD. Think of each as a fantasy abstract.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \emph{The Evolution of Human Uniqueness.} There is wide agreement that humans are unique. But it is rarely asked: Have they always been unique? In this paper, we derive a general uniqueness theorem that states that any unique species must have been less unique at some point in the past. This theorem has implications for the achievement of world peace.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreihnoflhyf2lajrvcsovawt3xr47qlm76jfhzet5lqumkabtzufvoe@jpeg)
November 3, 2025 at 7:45 AM
This November, like every November, I am teaching basic research proposal writing to the new phd cohort at my institute. Here is the 2 page template we start with and adapt. Link to LaTeX github.com/rmcelreath/P...
I am slow cooking some red beef curry and my cat Mischka is on duty
October 31, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I am slow cooking some red beef curry and my cat Mischka is on duty
reading the NL election news and thinking of this
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
reading the NL election news and thinking of this
Since I am kinship posting, there is also reciprocal kinship terminology in which mother's call their children "mother". It ain't rare! Kinship terms just don't, in general, mean specific biological descent relationships. They are much more fun than that linguistics.stackexchange.com/questions/28...
October 29, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Since I am kinship posting, there is also reciprocal kinship terminology in which mother's call their children "mother". It ain't rare! Kinship terms just don't, in general, mean specific biological descent relationships. They are much more fun than that linguistics.stackexchange.com/questions/28...
Kinship terminology rarely perfectly reflects biological kinship. The root meaning of the Indo-European word "mother" isn't even "biological mother". The ancestral Indo-European system, the patrilineal Omaha system, calls your mother's sister and all women on mother's side "mother" (B in diagram).
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Kinship terminology rarely perfectly reflects biological kinship. The root meaning of the Indo-European word "mother" isn't even "biological mother". The ancestral Indo-European system, the patrilineal Omaha system, calls your mother's sister and all women on mother's side "mother" (B in diagram).
Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.
October 28, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.
Rainy day, Mischka takes shelter
October 26, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Rainy day, Mischka takes shelter
Monty Python understood p-hacking
October 23, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Monty Python understood p-hacking
Sprache der Dichter und Denker (languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=71740)
October 22, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Sprache der Dichter und Denker (languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=71740)
When I made this slide, 27k parameters seemed like a lot
October 21, 2025 at 7:13 AM
When I made this slide, 27k parameters seemed like a lot
Mischka enjoys some sun during a cold snap that breaks the clouds
October 18, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Mischka enjoys some sun during a cold snap that breaks the clouds
And for my fellows here in DE, I can't resist the detail on GERMANIA, because it shows how historically and politically important the Elba River has been, the traditional divide between west and east
October 17, 2025 at 7:52 AM
And for my fellows here in DE, I can't resist the detail on GERMANIA, because it shows how historically and politically important the Elba River has been, the traditional divide between west and east
Still there are lots of things/places in the Americas named "Columbia", including the mostly-forgotten Lady Columbia, personification of the United States (mostly the original 13 colonies of it). Lady Columbia was used on Confederate currency and is these days cringe en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbi...
October 17, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Still there are lots of things/places in the Americas named "Columbia", including the mostly-forgotten Lady Columbia, personification of the United States (mostly the original 13 colonies of it). Lady Columbia was used on Confederate currency and is these days cringe en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbi...