I'd still like to make these lectures into a small book, but there are already two book projects between me and doing that. One day maybe.

Link to reanalysis for those who haven't heard this story before (PDF): marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/u...

If I had more time today, I would make a thread of published nonsense ad hoc pipelines. So just one: the 1985 hot hand fallacy paper by Gilovich et al justified its bogus estimator with nothing but intuition. It was 30 years before someone bothered to check it with synthetic data/analysis.

Fax is also acceptable

The relevant bit of grump from the quoted post (left). And age distribution of Max Planck directors (right)

If I understand right, that sounds reasonable. Treatment assignment depends upon complexity, and complexity influences time to surgery conditional on assignment. An interesting example for modeling prob of treatment assignment!

In big impact, low citation corner: Tu Youyou won the Nobel Prize in 2015 for work on anti-malaria compounds that have gone on to save millions of lives, but her 1999 paper on the topic still doesn't even have 100 citations.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tu_Youyou
Paper: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11721477/

Link to report: doi.org/10.1098/rsos...

A spicier opinion is that academia taking back publishing is not necessarily a path to innovation and efficiency. Do you associate universities with efficiency? The problem with for-profit publishing is not the profit, it's the oligopoly power of major publishers. Anti-trust in our lifetime?

Lots more Celtic words in old French I've been told, and of course very very many place names in France are Celtic. Even "Paris"!

Yes a name I think popularized in England by the Normans, who spoke French, but were actually Danish. Richard I the Lionheart was I guess an exemplar.

Philosophers of biology will continue to have fun charting and explaining what evolutionary biologists are up to with all this "organismal design" stuff! There are no signs yet we are approaching a stable consensus, to my mind.

It's complicated. The "whole organism" perspective has some things going for it I think. Cool paper from 2019 on the topic doi.org/10.1098/rspb...

exactly, I don't think there is an accessible explanation that is also right. similar to trying to explain a p-value without mathematical expressions. it's not surprising people end up believing false things afterwards.