Richard Riley (R²)
@richarddriley.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics • BMJ Deputy Chief Stats Editor • Books: "Prognosis Research in Healthcare: concepts, methods & impact" & "IPD Meta-Analysis: A Handbook for Healthcare Research.." • Websites: www.ipdma.co.uk & www.prognosisresearch.com • Whovian
Pinned
Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches
Clinical prediction models estimate an individual’s risk (probability) of a health related outcome to help guide patient counselling and clinical decision making. Most models provide a single point es...
www.bmj.com
**NEW BMJ PAPER**
"Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches"
- most models provide just a risk estimate
- we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too
- includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods
Hope helpful!
www.bmj.com/content/388/...
"Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches"
- most models provide just a risk estimate
- we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too
- includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods
Hope helpful!
www.bmj.com/content/388/...
Giving a talk today which anyone can watch online: 1pm - 2pm
"The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models"
- intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research)
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
"The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models"
- intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research)
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Research Methods Academy: Seminar - The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models. After registering, you w...
Led by Professor Richard Riley
Join this Online Seminar on clinical prediction models estimate individual risk for outcomes from disease. Many studies lack rigorous design; this session will focus o...
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us
September 30, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Giving a talk today which anyone can watch online: 1pm - 2pm
"The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models"
- intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research)
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
"The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models"
- intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research)
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Webinar: The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models
From @nihr.bsky.social Research Support Service (RSS)
Led by @richarddriley.bsky.social from @unibirmingham.bsky.social
Tuesday 30 September 2025, 1-2pm
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
From @nihr.bsky.social Research Support Service (RSS)
Led by @richarddriley.bsky.social from @unibirmingham.bsky.social
Tuesday 30 September 2025, 1-2pm
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Research Methods Academy: Seminar - The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models. After registering, you w...
Led by Professor Richard Riley
Join this Online Seminar on clinical prediction models estimate individual risk for outcomes from disease. Many studies lack rigorous design; this session will focus o...
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us
September 23, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Webinar: The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models
From @nihr.bsky.social Research Support Service (RSS)
Led by @richarddriley.bsky.social from @unibirmingham.bsky.social
Tuesday 30 September 2025, 1-2pm
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
From @nihr.bsky.social Research Support Service (RSS)
Led by @richarddriley.bsky.social from @unibirmingham.bsky.social
Tuesday 30 September 2025, 1-2pm
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
I'm giving a talk to the new RSS Research Methods Academy on 30th September at 1pm - "The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models" - intended for a broad audience, not just statisticians - register here imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Research Methods Academy: Seminar - The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models. After registering, you w...
Led by Professor Richard Riley
Join this Online Seminar on clinical prediction models estimate individual risk for outcomes from disease. Many studies lack rigorous design; this session will focus o...
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us
September 23, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I'm giving a talk to the new RSS Research Methods Academy on 30th September at 1pm - "The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models" - intended for a broad audience, not just statisticians - register here imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
*NEW COURSE*
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
https://tinyurl.com/3y7phy86
t.co
September 2, 2025 at 2:22 PM
*NEW COURSE*
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
*NEW PAPER*
"Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology"
- Led by @vickersbiostats.bsky.social
- Addresses common shortcomings of meta-analysis articles
- Provides guidelines for improvement
- Applicable to all fields, not just urology
Hope helpful 🙏
"Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology"
- Led by @vickersbiostats.bsky.social
- Addresses common shortcomings of meta-analysis articles
- Provides guidelines for improvement
- Applicable to all fields, not just urology
Hope helpful 🙏
September 10, 2025 at 7:11 AM
*NEW PAPER*
"Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology"
- Led by @vickersbiostats.bsky.social
- Addresses common shortcomings of meta-analysis articles
- Provides guidelines for improvement
- Applicable to all fields, not just urology
Hope helpful 🙏
"Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology"
- Led by @vickersbiostats.bsky.social
- Addresses common shortcomings of meta-analysis articles
- Provides guidelines for improvement
- Applicable to all fields, not just urology
Hope helpful 🙏
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
This is big! Worked with great statisticians on guidelines for meta-analysis & systematic review. We discuss rationales for systematic review, evaluation & interpretation of heterogeneity, & common errors in network meta-analysis, funnel plots etc. www.europeanurology.com/article/S030...
Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology
Our guideline comprises points addressing the conduct and interpretation of systematic
reviews and meta-analyses in urology. Application of the guideline would lead to a
more considered interpretation...
www.europeanurology.com
September 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is big! Worked with great statisticians on guidelines for meta-analysis & systematic review. We discuss rationales for systematic review, evaluation & interpretation of heterogeneity, & common errors in network meta-analysis, funnel plots etc. www.europeanurology.com/article/S030...
Tomorrow at 9am 👇
Speaking at #RSS2025 this Thursday 9am about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a 'Data Science for Medicine & Health' session (not a prediction models session!) ... details below
I'll also upload to youtube next week
I'll also upload to youtube next week
September 3, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Tomorrow at 9am 👇
NOW OPEN FOR BOOKING:
"Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis of IPD"
- October 1st to 3rd 2025 (online)
IPD Meta-Analysis Projects: a practical introduction for healthcare research"
- 23rd -24th September 2025 (online)
www.ipdma.co.uk/training-cou...
"Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis of IPD"
- October 1st to 3rd 2025 (online)
IPD Meta-Analysis Projects: a practical introduction for healthcare research"
- 23rd -24th September 2025 (online)
www.ipdma.co.uk/training-cou...
Training courses | IPD Meta-Analysis
www.ipdma.co.uk
September 2, 2025 at 4:12 PM
NOW OPEN FOR BOOKING:
"Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis of IPD"
- October 1st to 3rd 2025 (online)
IPD Meta-Analysis Projects: a practical introduction for healthcare research"
- 23rd -24th September 2025 (online)
www.ipdma.co.uk/training-cou...
"Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis of IPD"
- October 1st to 3rd 2025 (online)
IPD Meta-Analysis Projects: a practical introduction for healthcare research"
- 23rd -24th September 2025 (online)
www.ipdma.co.uk/training-cou...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Got ideas for future sessions for @rssdiversity.bsky.social - join us 👇
Or drop me a message - I'd love to hear from you 🙏
Or drop me a message - I'd love to hear from you 🙏
📢 Statisticians at #RSSConf2025:
Join us on Platform5 at 12:50 for the Celebrating Diversity Networking Lunch 😋
Meet members of @rssdiversity.bsky.social & network with attendees interested in the RSS’ equity, diversity, inclusion, and accessibility work
Join us on Platform5 at 12:50 for the Celebrating Diversity Networking Lunch 😋
Meet members of @rssdiversity.bsky.social & network with attendees interested in the RSS’ equity, diversity, inclusion, and accessibility work
September 2, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Got ideas for future sessions for @rssdiversity.bsky.social - join us 👇
Or drop me a message - I'd love to hear from you 🙏
Or drop me a message - I'd love to hear from you 🙏
*NEW COURSE*
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
https://tinyurl.com/3y7phy86
t.co
September 2, 2025 at 2:22 PM
*NEW COURSE*
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
"Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects: A Practical Introduction"
📅 23-24 Sept 2025 | Online
Covers whole project: rationale & planning; obtaining, cleaning & harmonising IPD; risk of bias & meta-analysis; reporting and dissemination
t.co/2Jsz5si1I1
Speaking at #RSS2025 this Thursday 9am about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a 'Data Science for Medicine & Health' session (not a prediction models session!) ... details below
I'll also upload to youtube next week
I'll also upload to youtube next week
September 1, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Speaking at #RSS2025 this Thursday 9am about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a 'Data Science for Medicine & Health' session (not a prediction models session!) ... details below
I'll also upload to youtube next week
I'll also upload to youtube next week
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Very sorry to hear about Christopher Bidmead's death. As script editor, he gave DW a new lease of life during Tom's last year, with a season of extraordinarily interesting and tonally wide-ranging stories.
August 31, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Very sorry to hear about Christopher Bidmead's death. As script editor, he gave DW a new lease of life during Tom's last year, with a season of extraordinarily interesting and tonally wide-ranging stories.
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Another unnecessarily nerdy plunge into old Target novelisations by Terrance Dicks, this time Doctor Who and the Abominable Snowmen: 0tralala.blogspot.com/2025/08/doct...
0tralala.blogspot.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Another unnecessarily nerdy plunge into old Target novelisations by Terrance Dicks, this time Doctor Who and the Abominable Snowmen: 0tralala.blogspot.com/2025/08/doct...
** session details:
9:15 - 10:45am
Bayesian methods 2
Location: Biozentrum U1.141
Chair: Lukas Andreas Widmer
9:15 - 10:45am
Bayesian methods 2
Location: Biozentrum U1.141
Chair: Lukas Andreas Widmer
Speaking at #ISCB on Tuesday about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a Bayesian session (not the prediction models session!)
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
A general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model
Aims: To propose a general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model using any statistical or machine learning method, based on drawing samples from anticipated post...
arxiv.org
August 26, 2025 at 6:10 AM
** session details:
9:15 - 10:45am
Bayesian methods 2
Location: Biozentrum U1.141
Chair: Lukas Andreas Widmer
9:15 - 10:45am
Bayesian methods 2
Location: Biozentrum U1.141
Chair: Lukas Andreas Widmer
Speaking at #ISCB on Tuesday about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a Bayesian session (not the prediction models session!)
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
A general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model
Aims: To propose a general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model using any statistical or machine learning method, based on drawing samples from anticipated post...
arxiv.org
August 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Speaking at #ISCB on Tuesday about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a Bayesian session (not the prediction models session!)
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
Talk is based on this preprint arxiv.org/abs/2504.18730
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
NEW PREPRINT
Explainable AI refers to an extremely popular group of approaches that aim to open "black box" AI models. But what can we see when we open the black AI box? We use Galit Shmueli's framework (to describe, predict or explain) to evaluate
arxiv.org/abs/2508.05753
Explainable AI refers to an extremely popular group of approaches that aim to open "black box" AI models. But what can we see when we open the black AI box? We use Galit Shmueli's framework (to describe, predict or explain) to evaluate
arxiv.org/abs/2508.05753
August 11, 2025 at 6:53 AM
NEW PREPRINT
Explainable AI refers to an extremely popular group of approaches that aim to open "black box" AI models. But what can we see when we open the black AI box? We use Galit Shmueli's framework (to describe, predict or explain) to evaluate
arxiv.org/abs/2508.05753
Explainable AI refers to an extremely popular group of approaches that aim to open "black box" AI models. But what can we see when we open the black AI box? We use Galit Shmueli's framework (to describe, predict or explain) to evaluate
arxiv.org/abs/2508.05753
*NEW PAPER*
"Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification"
- SS calculations to precisely estimate threshold-based measures, eg. sens, spec & F1
- use alongside SS for discrimination & calibration
- R, Python & Stata
tinyurl.com/42x99dd4
"Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification"
- SS calculations to precisely estimate threshold-based measures, eg. sens, spec & F1
- use alongside SS for discrimination & calibration
- R, Python & Stata
tinyurl.com/42x99dd4
Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification - BMC Medical Research Methodology
When evaluating the performance of a model for individualised risk prediction, the sample size needs to be large enough to precisely estimate the performance measures of interest. Current sample size ...
tinyurl.com
August 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
*NEW PAPER*
"Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification"
- SS calculations to precisely estimate threshold-based measures, eg. sens, spec & F1
- use alongside SS for discrimination & calibration
- R, Python & Stata
tinyurl.com/42x99dd4
"Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification"
- SS calculations to precisely estimate threshold-based measures, eg. sens, spec & F1
- use alongside SS for discrimination & calibration
- R, Python & Stata
tinyurl.com/42x99dd4
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Thing from my day job: interview about team working to use extended reality (XR) to help autistic drivers: socialcare.today/2025/07/28/i...
Interview: XR driving school for autistic people
Last month, we reported that the National Autistic Society is working with the University of Exeter on a state-of-the-art project to use extended reality (XR) and gaming technology to help autistic pe...
socialcare.today
July 29, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Thing from my day job: interview about team working to use extended reality (XR) to help autistic drivers: socialcare.today/2025/07/28/i...
New paper in BMJ (Research Methods & Reporting):
“Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide”
led by Pedro Lopez-Ayala & Tobias Zimmermann with & myself
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
“Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide”
led by Pedro Lopez-Ayala & Tobias Zimmermann with & myself
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide
Proper handling of continuous variables is crucial in healthcare research, for example, within regression modelling for descriptive, explanatory, or predictive purposes. However, inadequate methods ar...
www.bmj.com
July 29, 2025 at 10:15 PM
New paper in BMJ (Research Methods & Reporting):
“Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide”
led by Pedro Lopez-Ayala & Tobias Zimmermann with & myself
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
“Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide”
led by Pedro Lopez-Ayala & Tobias Zimmermann with & myself
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Forty years ago, #DoctorWho took to the airwaves with the broadcast of Slipback, during the 18 month hiatus.
We speak exclusively to writer Eric Saward, the amazing @nicolabryant.bsky.social and guest star Nick Revell, about their memories of this hour-long story.
soundcloud.com/powerof3pod/...
We speak exclusively to writer Eric Saward, the amazing @nicolabryant.bsky.social and guest star Nick Revell, about their memories of this hour-long story.
soundcloud.com/powerof3pod/...
281: The Making of Slipback
Remember when Doctor Who was put on hiatus, back in 1985?
To help bridge the gap between Seasons 22 and 23, a six-part radio story was broadback on Pirate Radio 4, featuring Colin Baker and Nicola Bry
soundcloud.com
July 25, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Forty years ago, #DoctorWho took to the airwaves with the broadcast of Slipback, during the 18 month hiatus.
We speak exclusively to writer Eric Saward, the amazing @nicolabryant.bsky.social and guest star Nick Revell, about their memories of this hour-long story.
soundcloud.com/powerof3pod/...
We speak exclusively to writer Eric Saward, the amazing @nicolabryant.bsky.social and guest star Nick Revell, about their memories of this hour-long story.
soundcloud.com/powerof3pod/...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Many high street health tests are unfit for purpose and need greater regulation, warn researchers in two studies.
These studies highlight issues over accuracy and suitability for public use, they say
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
These studies highlight issues over accuracy and suitability for public use, they say
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
July 25, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Many high street health tests are unfit for purpose and need greater regulation, warn researchers in two studies.
These studies highlight issues over accuracy and suitability for public use, they say
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
These studies highlight issues over accuracy and suitability for public use, they say
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
www.bmj.com/content/390/...
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
Running a workshop tomorrow on reproducible workflows in R at the King's Open Research Summer School.
📽️ Slides: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩💻 Practical: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical
Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅
#rstats #opensci
📽️ Slides: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩💻 Practical: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical
Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅
#rstats #opensci
Reproducible workflows in R
ewancarr.github.io
July 24, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Running a workshop tomorrow on reproducible workflows in R at the King's Open Research Summer School.
📽️ Slides: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩💻 Practical: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical
Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅
#rstats #opensci
📽️ Slides: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩💻 Practical: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical
Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅
#rstats #opensci
A must read for me …
We’re pleased to announce that we will be publishing the first full-length biography of prolific Doctor Who writer and script editor Terrance Dicks, written by Simon Guerrier with the cooperation of Terrance’s family. Written by Terrance Dicks is provisionally scheduled for publication in 2026.
July 20, 2025 at 9:29 AM
A must read for me …
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
We’re pleased to announce that we will be publishing the first full-length biography of prolific Doctor Who writer and script editor Terrance Dicks, written by Simon Guerrier with the cooperation of Terrance’s family. Written by Terrance Dicks is provisionally scheduled for publication in 2026.
July 19, 2025 at 6:23 PM
We’re pleased to announce that we will be publishing the first full-length biography of prolific Doctor Who writer and script editor Terrance Dicks, written by Simon Guerrier with the cooperation of Terrance’s family. Written by Terrance Dicks is provisionally scheduled for publication in 2026.
Reposted by Richard Riley (R²)
**NEW OPEN-ACCESS PAPER**
“A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk—part 1: binary outcomes"
- published in Diagnostic & Prognostic Research
- implemented in pmstabilityss
1/n
“A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk—part 1: binary outcomes"
- published in Diagnostic & Prognostic Research
- implemented in pmstabilityss
1/n
July 8, 2025 at 6:56 AM
**NEW OPEN-ACCESS PAPER**
“A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk—part 1: binary outcomes"
- published in Diagnostic & Prognostic Research
- implemented in pmstabilityss
1/n
“A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk—part 1: binary outcomes"
- published in Diagnostic & Prognostic Research
- implemented in pmstabilityss
1/n