Richard Riley (R²)
@richarddriley.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics • BMJ Deputy Chief Stats Editor • Books: "Prognosis Research in Healthcare: concepts, methods & impact" & "IPD Meta-Analysis: A Handbook for Healthcare Research.." • Websites: www.ipdma.co.uk & www.prognosisresearch.com • Whovian
Speaking at #RSS2025 this Thursday 9am about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a 'Data Science for Medicine & Health' session (not a prediction models session!) ... details below
I'll also upload to youtube next week
I'll also upload to youtube next week
September 1, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Speaking at #RSS2025 this Thursday 9am about a general sample size framework for developing prediction models - note it is in a 'Data Science for Medicine & Health' session (not a prediction models session!) ... details below
I'll also upload to youtube next week
I'll also upload to youtube next week
* New preprint led by Joao Matos & @gscollins.bsky.social
"Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI"
- Important, rapidly growing area
- But confusion exists
- 62 fairness metrics identified so far
- Better standards & metrics needed for healthcare
arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035
"Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI"
- Important, rapidly growing area
- But confusion exists
- 62 fairness metrics identified so far
- Better standards & metrics needed for healthcare
arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035
June 27, 2025 at 6:57 AM
* New preprint led by Joao Matos & @gscollins.bsky.social
"Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI"
- Important, rapidly growing area
- But confusion exists
- 62 fairness metrics identified so far
- Better standards & metrics needed for healthcare
arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035
"Critical Appraisal of Fairness Metrics in Clinical Predictive AI"
- Important, rapidly growing area
- But confusion exists
- 62 fairness metrics identified so far
- Better standards & metrics needed for healthcare
arxiv.org/abs/2506.17035
Stats team away day … Bake Off!
My contribution … it’s bigger on the inside too
My contribution … it’s bigger on the inside too
June 10, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Stats team away day … Bake Off!
My contribution … it’s bigger on the inside too
My contribution … it’s bigger on the inside too
Glorious venue for the conference …. risk prediction is a major theme
June 2, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Glorious venue for the conference …. risk prediction is a major theme
"Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis Projects: rationale, concepts, & pitfalls"
Giving an IPDMA introductory talk this Friday 16th May - see details below:
- see also www.ipdma.co.uk
Giving an IPDMA introductory talk this Friday 16th May - see details below:
- see also www.ipdma.co.uk
May 11, 2025 at 6:45 AM
"Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis Projects: rationale, concepts, & pitfalls"
Giving an IPDMA introductory talk this Friday 16th May - see details below:
- see also www.ipdma.co.uk
Giving an IPDMA introductory talk this Friday 16th May - see details below:
- see also www.ipdma.co.uk
Our #memtab2025 pre-conference courses are underway!
Including our "Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models & Sample Size Calculations for Model Development & Evaluation"
Including our "Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models & Sample Size Calculations for Model Development & Evaluation"
April 29, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Our #memtab2025 pre-conference courses are underway!
Including our "Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models & Sample Size Calculations for Model Development & Evaluation"
Including our "Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models & Sample Size Calculations for Model Development & Evaluation"
Our beautiful campus & Old Joe awaits
#memtab2025
#memtab2025
April 28, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Our beautiful campus & Old Joe awaits
#memtab2025
#memtab2025
April 28, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Last year I published research proving (yes, proving 😉 ) that new episodes of Doctor Who on Christmas Day reduce death rates in UK
Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year!
Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho
www.bmj.com/content/383/...
Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year!
Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho
www.bmj.com/content/383/...
November 21, 2024 at 5:33 PM
Last year I published research proving (yes, proving 😉 ) that new episodes of Doctor Who on Christmas Day reduce death rates in UK
Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year!
Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho
www.bmj.com/content/383/...
Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year!
Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho
www.bmj.com/content/383/...
Pushing ahead with novel research for patient benefit is futile (harmful) unless accompanied by high standards in design, analysis & reporting
Evidence of methodology quality should be paramount for funders at each stage of grant submissions
Yet it's not:
tinyurl.com/z7hjrdmj
Evidence of methodology quality should be paramount for funders at each stage of grant submissions
Yet it's not:
tinyurl.com/z7hjrdmj
March 13, 2024 at 2:28 PM
Pushing ahead with novel research for patient benefit is futile (harmful) unless accompanied by high standards in design, analysis & reporting
Evidence of methodology quality should be paramount for funders at each stage of grant submissions
Yet it's not:
tinyurl.com/z7hjrdmj
Evidence of methodology quality should be paramount for funders at each stage of grant submissions
Yet it's not:
tinyurl.com/z7hjrdmj
PRESS INTEREST
Lastly, this article made the press in UK
I was referred to as a Boffin!
And it made the front cover of the Daily Star!
Alongside headlines such as 'Boffins: Lentils can talk' and someone speaking from beyond the grave
Hilarious
11/n
Lastly, this article made the press in UK
I was referred to as a Boffin!
And it made the front cover of the Daily Star!
Alongside headlines such as 'Boffins: Lentils can talk' and someone speaking from beyond the grave
Hilarious
11/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:41 PM
PRESS INTEREST
Lastly, this article made the press in UK
I was referred to as a Boffin!
And it made the front cover of the Daily Star!
Alongside headlines such as 'Boffins: Lentils can talk' and someone speaking from beyond the grave
Hilarious
11/n
Lastly, this article made the press in UK
I was referred to as a Boffin!
And it made the front cover of the Daily Star!
Alongside headlines such as 'Boffins: Lentils can talk' and someone speaking from beyond the grave
Hilarious
11/n
K-9
I just had to get the word 'affirmative' in the paper, as a nod to the Doctor's faithful robot dog
This word felt very forced into the text, but thankfully the BMJ left the word in the final cut
9/n
I just had to get the word 'affirmative' in the paper, as a nod to the Doctor's faithful robot dog
This word felt very forced into the text, but thankfully the BMJ left the word in the final cut
9/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:39 PM
K-9
I just had to get the word 'affirmative' in the paper, as a nod to the Doctor's faithful robot dog
This word felt very forced into the text, but thankfully the BMJ left the word in the final cut
9/n
I just had to get the word 'affirmative' in the paper, as a nod to the Doctor's faithful robot dog
This word felt very forced into the text, but thankfully the BMJ left the word in the final cut
9/n
DOCTOR QUOTES
There are many quotes from The Doctor directly made in the article
But two hidden ones are:
'fantastic' - a word often used by the ninth Doctor
'the moment had been prepared for' - reference to the final words of the fourth Doctor in Logopolis
8/n
There are many quotes from The Doctor directly made in the article
But two hidden ones are:
'fantastic' - a word often used by the ninth Doctor
'the moment had been prepared for' - reference to the final words of the fourth Doctor in Logopolis
8/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:39 PM
DOCTOR QUOTES
There are many quotes from The Doctor directly made in the article
But two hidden ones are:
'fantastic' - a word often used by the ninth Doctor
'the moment had been prepared for' - reference to the final words of the fourth Doctor in Logopolis
8/n
There are many quotes from The Doctor directly made in the article
But two hidden ones are:
'fantastic' - a word often used by the ninth Doctor
'the moment had been prepared for' - reference to the final words of the fourth Doctor in Logopolis
8/n
MONSTERS
Daleks and Cybermen both get mentions
There is the Dalek Involvement and Engagement group - or DIE for short - who had to be exterminated
'This is excellent news' - I used this phrase to match the quote made by The Cyber-Leader in the episode Earthshock
Daleks and Cybermen both get mentions
There is the Dalek Involvement and Engagement group - or DIE for short - who had to be exterminated
'This is excellent news' - I used this phrase to match the quote made by The Cyber-Leader in the episode Earthshock
January 25, 2024 at 3:38 PM
MONSTERS
Daleks and Cybermen both get mentions
There is the Dalek Involvement and Engagement group - or DIE for short - who had to be exterminated
'This is excellent news' - I used this phrase to match the quote made by The Cyber-Leader in the episode Earthshock
Daleks and Cybermen both get mentions
There is the Dalek Involvement and Engagement group - or DIE for short - who had to be exterminated
'This is excellent news' - I used this phrase to match the quote made by The Cyber-Leader in the episode Earthshock
SHOWRUNNER THANKS
I refer to showruner Russell T Davies as a 'humble curator'
This is a ref to Tom Baker's appearance as 'a humble curator' (surely The Doctor still) at the end of the 50th Anniversary ep 'The Day of the Doctor'
This was to thank RTD for all he has done
6/n
I refer to showruner Russell T Davies as a 'humble curator'
This is a ref to Tom Baker's appearance as 'a humble curator' (surely The Doctor still) at the end of the 50th Anniversary ep 'The Day of the Doctor'
This was to thank RTD for all he has done
6/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
SHOWRUNNER THANKS
I refer to showruner Russell T Davies as a 'humble curator'
This is a ref to Tom Baker's appearance as 'a humble curator' (surely The Doctor still) at the end of the 50th Anniversary ep 'The Day of the Doctor'
This was to thank RTD for all he has done
6/n
I refer to showruner Russell T Davies as a 'humble curator'
This is a ref to Tom Baker's appearance as 'a humble curator' (surely The Doctor still) at the end of the 50th Anniversary ep 'The Day of the Doctor'
This was to thank RTD for all he has done
6/n
FAN INDULGENCE
The final paragraph is littered with fan references
'is a fake' - reference to writing on the back of a fake Mona Lisa in City of Death
'junkyard' - where the TARDIS was found in the very first episode
'badge for maths excellence' - Adric wears this ⭐️
5/n
The final paragraph is littered with fan references
'is a fake' - reference to writing on the back of a fake Mona Lisa in City of Death
'junkyard' - where the TARDIS was found in the very first episode
'badge for maths excellence' - Adric wears this ⭐️
5/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:36 PM
FAN INDULGENCE
The final paragraph is littered with fan references
'is a fake' - reference to writing on the back of a fake Mona Lisa in City of Death
'junkyard' - where the TARDIS was found in the very first episode
'badge for maths excellence' - Adric wears this ⭐️
5/n
The final paragraph is littered with fan references
'is a fake' - reference to writing on the back of a fake Mona Lisa in City of Death
'junkyard' - where the TARDIS was found in the very first episode
'badge for maths excellence' - Adric wears this ⭐️
5/n
KNOCK FOUR TIMES
Following mention of the ADRIC study, I noted that my funding applications for this study "have been knocked back four times"
This is reference to the prophecy "he will knock four times", given to the Tenth Doctor to signal his impending death
4/n
Following mention of the ADRIC study, I noted that my funding applications for this study "have been knocked back four times"
This is reference to the prophecy "he will knock four times", given to the Tenth Doctor to signal his impending death
4/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:36 PM
KNOCK FOUR TIMES
Following mention of the ADRIC study, I noted that my funding applications for this study "have been knocked back four times"
This is reference to the prophecy "he will knock four times", given to the Tenth Doctor to signal his impending death
4/n
Following mention of the ADRIC study, I noted that my funding applications for this study "have been knocked back four times"
This is reference to the prophecy "he will knock four times", given to the Tenth Doctor to signal his impending death
4/n
ADRIC
I refer to a follow-up study called "ADverse Reactions In Children" - ADRIC for short.
ADRIC is the name of the Fifth Doctor's best companion, played by Matthew Waterhouse
3/n
I refer to a follow-up study called "ADverse Reactions In Children" - ADRIC for short.
ADRIC is the name of the Fifth Doctor's best companion, played by Matthew Waterhouse
3/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:35 PM
ADRIC
I refer to a follow-up study called "ADverse Reactions In Children" - ADRIC for short.
ADRIC is the name of the Fifth Doctor's best companion, played by Matthew Waterhouse
3/n
I refer to a follow-up study called "ADverse Reactions In Children" - ADRIC for short.
ADRIC is the name of the Fifth Doctor's best companion, played by Matthew Waterhouse
3/n
BAD WOLF
If you take the first letter of each paragraph in the Discussion, you spell BAD WOLF
Those two words, scattered across the universe yet again, even reaching The BMJ 🐺🌹
See highlighted words in the figure below
2/n
If you take the first letter of each paragraph in the Discussion, you spell BAD WOLF
Those two words, scattered across the universe yet again, even reaching The BMJ 🐺🌹
See highlighted words in the figure below
2/n
January 25, 2024 at 3:34 PM
BAD WOLF
If you take the first letter of each paragraph in the Discussion, you spell BAD WOLF
Those two words, scattered across the universe yet again, even reaching The BMJ 🐺🌹
See highlighted words in the figure below
2/n
If you take the first letter of each paragraph in the Discussion, you spell BAD WOLF
Those two words, scattered across the universe yet again, even reaching The BMJ 🐺🌹
See highlighted words in the figure below
2/n
look out for what drops on Tuesday
❤️❤️➕🟦
December 18, 2023 at 8:52 AM
look out for what drops on Tuesday
❤️❤️➕🟦
Extra analyses requested by the Principal Investigator after a non-significant primary outcome result
December 14, 2023 at 11:41 AM
Extra analyses requested by the Principal Investigator after a non-significant primary outcome result
This plot showcases work (Fig 4 in paper)
It displays instability of predictions from a LASSO logistic reg developed with a particular sample size
X-axis: predictions from original model
Y-axis: predictions from alternative bootstrap models
Variability can be huge
2/3
It displays instability of predictions from a LASSO logistic reg developed with a particular sample size
X-axis: predictions from original model
Y-axis: predictions from alternative bootstrap models
Variability can be huge
2/3
December 11, 2023 at 8:32 AM
This plot showcases work (Fig 4 in paper)
It displays instability of predictions from a LASSO logistic reg developed with a particular sample size
X-axis: predictions from original model
Y-axis: predictions from alternative bootstrap models
Variability can be huge
2/3
It displays instability of predictions from a LASSO logistic reg developed with a particular sample size
X-axis: predictions from original model
Y-axis: predictions from alternative bootstrap models
Variability can be huge
2/3
Here is a 1-page summary for your wall
This talk is based on our Christmas article from 2022
t.co/y4GVFmTOfs
This talk is based on our Christmas article from 2022
t.co/y4GVFmTOfs
December 7, 2023 at 11:38 AM
Here is a 1-page summary for your wall
This talk is based on our Christmas article from 2022
t.co/y4GVFmTOfs
This talk is based on our Christmas article from 2022
t.co/y4GVFmTOfs