William Radaic
@radaic.bsky.social
phd student in economics at uc berkeley, williamradaic.github.io
Reposted by William Radaic
O fato de Conclave ter mais atores mexicanos do que Emília Perez me pegou um pouco
February 17, 2025 at 1:05 AM
O fato de Conclave ter mais atores mexicanos do que Emília Perez me pegou um pouco
Reposted by William Radaic
Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
February 2, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.
Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.
1/
Reposted by William Radaic
Our "Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter" with Pedro Sant'Anna and @brunoferman.bsky.social is now forthcoming in the
😀😀
American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals )
😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
😀😀
American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals )
😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter
This paper experimentally documents discrimination in the formation of professional networks among academic economists. We created fictitious human-like bot acc
papers.ssrn.com
January 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Our "Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter" with Pedro Sant'Anna and @brunoferman.bsky.social is now forthcoming in the
😀😀
American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals )
😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
😀😀
American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals )
😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
your daily reminder that people don’t understand conditional iid
Horário do sorteio da Mega da Virada 2024: veja que horas sai o resultado da mega-sena .
Horário do sorteio da Mega da Virada 2024: veja que horas sai o resultado da mega-sena
Mega-sena da Virada será sorteada nesta terça-feira; veja como acompanhar em tempo real A Caixa Econômica Federal encerrou as apostas para Mega da Virada às 18h desta terça-feira, 31 de dezembro. Agora, milhares de apostadores em todo país aguardam o…
dlvr.it
January 1, 2025 at 12:39 AM
your daily reminder that people don’t understand conditional iid
such a cool post
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...
Bias remaining after adjusting for pre-treatment variables. Also the challenges of learning through experimentation. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
December 10, 2024 at 4:11 PM
such a cool post
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...
Reposted by William Radaic
1/ have been waiting for this paper for ages. Rounding is common in elicited beliefs (.50, .75…). Does it bias estimation of weights on prior (delta) and likelihood (beta)?
Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given
Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given
November 30, 2024 at 6:57 PM
1/ have been waiting for this paper for ages. Rounding is common in elicited beliefs (.50, .75…). Does it bias estimation of weights on prior (delta) and likelihood (beta)?
Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given
Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given
Reposted by William Radaic
I like Ryan’s paper and (obviously) I think complexity matters for behavior.
But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.
But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.
Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk.
They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings.
Lead article in the latest AER issue:
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
November 28, 2024 at 4:36 PM
I like Ryan’s paper and (obviously) I think complexity matters for behavior.
But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.
But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.
Reposted by William Radaic
Permanent designs like this can make bike infrastructure feel as natural and normal as sidewalks. Here’s a small city in Quebec (just west of Quebec City) with a population of 20,000.
Ce n'est pas seulement à Montréal qu'on a compris l'importance de la sécurité des piétons et des cyclistes. Ici, la route Racette à Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures. Avant : un seul trottoir étroit. Après : 2 trottoirs, une piste cyclable protégée dans chaque sens et 2 nouvelles rangées d'arbres.
November 24, 2024 at 7:08 PM
Permanent designs like this can make bike infrastructure feel as natural and normal as sidewalks. Here’s a small city in Quebec (just west of Quebec City) with a population of 20,000.
Reposted by William Radaic
Just published in Journal of Public Economics:
"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy"
By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy"
By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
November 24, 2024 at 5:01 PM
Just published in Journal of Public Economics:
"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy"
By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy"
By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by William Radaic
Economic valuations fluctuate in ways empirical research cannot fully explain
What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions
My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms
What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions
My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms
November 20, 2024 at 8:16 PM
Economic valuations fluctuate in ways empirical research cannot fully explain
What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions
My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms
What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions
My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms
Reposted by William Radaic
760 empresas num universo de 14.492 empresas concentraram mais de 50% dos benefícios.
152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse.
O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público
152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse.
O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público
Toda vez que olho os dados abertos das isenções fico revoltado.
BALADA EVENTOS E PRODUCOES LTDA (Gusttavo Lima é sócio): 18 milhões do perse.
ESFERA BRASIL LTDA, organizadora de convescotes fechados com políticos, empresários e ministros do STF: quase 20 milhões do Perse.
🤦🏻
BALADA EVENTOS E PRODUCOES LTDA (Gusttavo Lima é sócio): 18 milhões do perse.
ESFERA BRASIL LTDA, organizadora de convescotes fechados com políticos, empresários e ministros do STF: quase 20 milhões do Perse.
🤦🏻
November 20, 2024 at 5:57 PM
760 empresas num universo de 14.492 empresas concentraram mais de 50% dos benefícios.
152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse.
O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público
152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse.
O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público
Reposted by William Radaic
I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/
November 20, 2024 at 4:04 PM
I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/
Reposted by William Radaic
My favorite kind of behavioral economics. Take a simple deviation from the standard properties of learning and explore all of its strategic implications.
I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/
November 20, 2024 at 5:12 PM
My favorite kind of behavioral economics. Take a simple deviation from the standard properties of learning and explore all of its strategic implications.
Prof. Matthew Rabin (Harvard Econ & HBS) is hiring pre-docs! The position is ideal for candidates interested in psychologically-grounded economic theory. Details here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e...
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382
#EconSky #econ_ra
drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e...
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382
#EconSky #econ_ra
Pre-Doctoral Fellowship in Behavioral-Economic Theory
Professor Matthew Rabin at Harvard University seeks full-time, pre-doctoral research fellows. The position is ideal for candidates interested in pursuing PhD studies in Economics, particularly those w...
academicpositions.harvard.edu
November 19, 2024 at 1:06 AM
Prof. Matthew Rabin (Harvard Econ & HBS) is hiring pre-docs! The position is ideal for candidates interested in psychologically-grounded economic theory. Details here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e...
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382
#EconSky #econ_ra
drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e...
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382
#EconSky #econ_ra
#EconSky: does Bluesky have a centralized account for publishing/sharing open pre-doc and RA positions? Similar to (at)econ_ra on Twitter
November 18, 2024 at 11:48 PM
#EconSky: does Bluesky have a centralized account for publishing/sharing open pre-doc and RA positions? Similar to (at)econ_ra on Twitter
your daily lesson on framing effects
You probably already know that question wording matters a lot in polling. But this chart from @aedwardslevy.bsky.social at @cnn.com underscores the point: Public support for mass deportation varies from 62% to 33%, depending on how the question is asked. www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/p...
November 18, 2024 at 4:08 PM
your daily lesson on framing effects
Reposted by William Radaic
Today seems like a good day to share this Scientific American story on how vaccines have saved more lives throughout history than any other intervention
www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
November 7, 2024 at 1:26 AM
Today seems like a good day to share this Scientific American story on how vaccines have saved more lives throughout history than any other intervention
www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
Reposted by William Radaic
Super cool that someone has actually estimated the environmental benefits of OPEC: about a trillion per decade!
www.nber.org/papers/w3311...
www.nber.org/papers/w3311...
November 13, 2024 at 6:15 PM
Super cool that someone has actually estimated the environmental benefits of OPEC: about a trillion per decade!
www.nber.org/papers/w3311...
www.nber.org/papers/w3311...
i think they meant “the world’s stupidest construction project”
The CEO of Saudi Arabia’s megacity Neom abruptly left his post, the latest setback for the world’s largest construction project.
Saudi Arabian megacity Neom replaces its CEO | Semafor
The departure of the longtime CEO marks a major shakeup at Neom, which is a showpiece of Riyadh’s economic ambitions.
www.semafor.com
November 12, 2024 at 5:24 PM
i think they meant “the world’s stupidest construction project”
Reposted by William Radaic
I teach a class on data science here at Illinois and during the seminar I host a competition for the class called "The Hunt for the Worst Data Visualization."
This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:
This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:
November 11, 2024 at 7:02 PM
I teach a class on data science here at Illinois and during the seminar I host a competition for the class called "The Hunt for the Worst Data Visualization."
This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:
This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:
Reposted by William Radaic
Tariffs will lead to more immigration.
Why?
Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations"
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Why?
Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations"
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Mexico–U.S. Immigration: Effects of Wages and Border Enforcement
Abstract. In this article, I study how relative wages and border enforcement affect immigration from Mexico to the U.S. To do this, I develop a discrete ch
academic.oup.com
November 12, 2024 at 2:29 AM
Tariffs will lead to more immigration.
Why?
Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations"
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Why?
Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations"
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Reposted by William Radaic
Health economics is doing something right
(via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)
(via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)
November 4, 2024 at 2:23 PM
Health economics is doing something right
(via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)
(via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)
Reposted by William Radaic
brasileiro 2 horas depois da eleição: CHUPA CIRO GOMES
estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar
estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar
November 3, 2024 at 2:36 PM
brasileiro 2 horas depois da eleição: CHUPA CIRO GOMES
estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar
estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar
Reposted by William Radaic
