Jay Daigle
@profjaydaigle.bsky.social
Mathematician at GWU. I write about teaching, epistemology, math, and metascience, and how hidden assumptions shape our decisions and beliefs. I write at https://jaydaigle.net/blog
Reposted by Jay Daigle
I am stealing “Elephants are big!” “No they’re not, they’re grey!”, thank you very much.
November 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
I am stealing “Elephants are big!” “No they’re not, they’re grey!”, thank you very much.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
It’s true that some scientific results can’t be replicated. And it’s also true that some people do the right thing when that happens:
Taking It Back, The Right Way
www.science.org
November 4, 2025 at 7:50 PM
It’s true that some scientific results can’t be replicated. And it’s also true that some people do the right thing when that happens:
Realizing I resist critiques of algorithmic short-form video because they make me feel smug and self-satisfied and I don't trust that.
I have zero interest in short-form video _or_ algorithmic feeds; judging them as also morally unvirtuous feels self-aggrandizing.
I have zero interest in short-form video _or_ algorithmic feeds; judging them as also morally unvirtuous feels self-aggrandizing.
October 27, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Realizing I resist critiques of algorithmic short-form video because they make me feel smug and self-satisfied and I don't trust that.
I have zero interest in short-form video _or_ algorithmic feeds; judging them as also morally unvirtuous feels self-aggrandizing.
I have zero interest in short-form video _or_ algorithmic feeds; judging them as also morally unvirtuous feels self-aggrandizing.
I'd forgotten just how long it takes to do a full install of LaTeX on a windows computer.
> Installing [3409/4876, time/total: 04:05:05/05:53:47]: postnotes [1107k]
> Installing [3409/4876, time/total: 04:05:05/05:53:47]: postnotes [1107k]
July 24, 2025 at 8:54 PM
I'd forgotten just how long it takes to do a full install of LaTeX on a windows computer.
> Installing [3409/4876, time/total: 04:05:05/05:53:47]: postnotes [1107k]
> Installing [3409/4876, time/total: 04:05:05/05:53:47]: postnotes [1107k]
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Our SPS group circulated this:
June 26, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Our SPS group circulated this:
Reposted by Jay Daigle
If you have a sufficient critical mass to actually topple the regime, then by all means, optics don’t matter anymore. But until then, that’s what protest IS. It’s an exercise in optics.
June 11, 2025 at 3:39 PM
If you have a sufficient critical mass to actually topple the regime, then by all means, optics don’t matter anymore. But until then, that’s what protest IS. It’s an exercise in optics.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
You aren't fighting for his base, you're fighting for the loosely attached folks who are why you won by 5 in 2020 but lost by 1.5 in 2024.
Like, I can't stress enough: the country is not 50% MAGA base and 50% progressive - there are a lot of 'persuadables' and you need them angry at Trump.
Like, I can't stress enough: the country is not 50% MAGA base and 50% progressive - there are a lot of 'persuadables' and you need them angry at Trump.
June 9, 2025 at 3:32 PM
You aren't fighting for his base, you're fighting for the loosely attached folks who are why you won by 5 in 2020 but lost by 1.5 in 2024.
Like, I can't stress enough: the country is not 50% MAGA base and 50% progressive - there are a lot of 'persuadables' and you need them angry at Trump.
Like, I can't stress enough: the country is not 50% MAGA base and 50% progressive - there are a lot of 'persuadables' and you need them angry at Trump.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Also, I should note, I am saying that in this circumstance forbearance is *effective* which isn't the same as saying it is fair or necessarily just. It is the shortest road to a just outcome, but true justice will need to involve some accountability for many of these ICE goons.
June 8, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Also, I should note, I am saying that in this circumstance forbearance is *effective* which isn't the same as saying it is fair or necessarily just. It is the shortest road to a just outcome, but true justice will need to involve some accountability for many of these ICE goons.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
From a strategic standpoint, it seems important to remember that the 'center of gravity' of a protest movement is not control of the streets, but public opinion.
The challenge that creates is a common strategic challenge: the emotionally satisfying thing is not the effective thing.
The challenge that creates is a common strategic challenge: the emotionally satisfying thing is not the effective thing.
June 8, 2025 at 3:32 PM
From a strategic standpoint, it seems important to remember that the 'center of gravity' of a protest movement is not control of the streets, but public opinion.
The challenge that creates is a common strategic challenge: the emotionally satisfying thing is not the effective thing.
The challenge that creates is a common strategic challenge: the emotionally satisfying thing is not the effective thing.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Social scientists have professional incentives to focus their work on what is _novel_ to people in their field, who they view as their core audience. The mental switch to be made is that what is _obvious_ to people in your field is often not obvious to ordinary citizens, and hence is valuable.
June 1, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Social scientists have professional incentives to focus their work on what is _novel_ to people in their field, who they view as their core audience. The mental switch to be made is that what is _obvious_ to people in your field is often not obvious to ordinary citizens, and hence is valuable.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Unironically they should buy up the domains for about 60 defunct local newspapers in swing states. Hire two reporters to write almost exclusively about highschool sports and new restaurants opening with every 10th article about how the local GOP is screwing over people.
NEWS:
Democratic mega-donors are debating plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on a range of influencer plans to "find the liberal Rogan."
We've got pitch decks, investor meetings, and internal docs.
One Democrat has a spreadsheet of 26 different proposals.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/u...
Democratic mega-donors are debating plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on a range of influencer plans to "find the liberal Rogan."
We've got pitch decks, investor meetings, and internal docs.
One Democrat has a spreadsheet of 26 different proposals.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/u...
Democrats Throw Money at a Problem: Countering G.O.P. Clout Online
www.nytimes.com
May 21, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Unironically they should buy up the domains for about 60 defunct local newspapers in swing states. Hire two reporters to write almost exclusively about highschool sports and new restaurants opening with every 10th article about how the local GOP is screwing over people.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Folks are going to say, "well, they were (legal) immigrants" - but if the administration is packing people off to a foreign slave-labor prison without due process, you, me and the public have exactly the same evidence that they're not citizens as you do that they are gang members.
Which is none.
Which is none.
Presented with evidence that innocent people who are not members of any gang were wrongly deported to a slave prison in El Salvador, Homan flatly insists that all of them were in fact gang members (but he's unwilling to detail any evidence showing it)
March 24, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Folks are going to say, "well, they were (legal) immigrants" - but if the administration is packing people off to a foreign slave-labor prison without due process, you, me and the public have exactly the same evidence that they're not citizens as you do that they are gang members.
Which is none.
Which is none.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
On a daily basis, I marvel at how many people in putative positions of power are willing to help obliterate American democracy. The US has faced a series of very easy moral tests in the past decade and it’s staggering how often people in once-respected positions have failed.
March 19, 2025 at 7:46 PM
On a daily basis, I marvel at how many people in putative positions of power are willing to help obliterate American democracy. The US has faced a series of very easy moral tests in the past decade and it’s staggering how often people in once-respected positions have failed.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
I think the academic community can help US academics, as well as academia in general, by providing safe haven for datasets that are being targeted by the Trump administration.
March 19, 2025 at 6:05 PM
I think the academic community can help US academics, as well as academia in general, by providing safe haven for datasets that are being targeted by the Trump administration.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Trying everything - and forcing them to bust every law and norm - helps you set those conditions. And also, like, there's some small chance that the norms hold and you avoid violence, which you *really* want to do.
You *really* *really* want to avoid violent scenarios if at all possible.
You *really* *really* want to avoid violent scenarios if at all possible.
March 16, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Trying everything - and forcing them to bust every law and norm - helps you set those conditions. And also, like, there's some small chance that the norms hold and you avoid violence, which you *really* want to do.
You *really* *really* want to avoid violent scenarios if at all possible.
You *really* *really* want to avoid violent scenarios if at all possible.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
If you think this is going to end with mass protests in the streets or - heaven help us - large-scale violence, then your focus needs to be setting the conditions so that when that happens you win.
And the conditions are: very low admin. legitimacy and popular support, engaged and enraged public.
And the conditions are: very low admin. legitimacy and popular support, engaged and enraged public.
March 16, 2025 at 10:03 PM
If you think this is going to end with mass protests in the streets or - heaven help us - large-scale violence, then your focus needs to be setting the conditions so that when that happens you win.
And the conditions are: very low admin. legitimacy and popular support, engaged and enraged public.
And the conditions are: very low admin. legitimacy and popular support, engaged and enraged public.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
I hope more people come to understand this. Life equips us with certain categorical boxes like “intelligence.” When something like LLMs appears that requires a new box, we would much rather stuff it into one of our old ones, no matter how bad the fit.
1. @alisongopnik.bsky.social, Cosma Shalizi, James Evans and myself have a new piece in Science on "AI" Large Models, pushing back against much of the collective wisdom about what they can and can't do. Official below, unpaywalled at henryfarrell.net/large-ai-mod... . So why this now?
Large AI models are cultural and social technologies
Implications draw on the history of transformative information systems from the past
www.science.org
March 14, 2025 at 3:47 PM
I hope more people come to understand this. Life equips us with certain categorical boxes like “intelligence.” When something like LLMs appears that requires a new box, we would much rather stuff it into one of our old ones, no matter how bad the fit.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
my actual unironic advice to undergrads is to major in something you're actually passionate about/interested in, and then try and *minor* in either CS or stats. you would be surprised how how much being the person who knows a substantive thing and can do some basic computer/stats stuff can pay off
March 14, 2025 at 5:16 PM
my actual unironic advice to undergrads is to major in something you're actually passionate about/interested in, and then try and *minor* in either CS or stats. you would be surprised how how much being the person who knows a substantive thing and can do some basic computer/stats stuff can pay off
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Those who know me know I was highly critical of what I saw as some of the rhetorical excesses of the campus protests. Khalil and I wld probably get into a spat immediately. It's all the more important for people who believe as I do to say clearly, the protections of the law are for everyone.
A federal judge in NY has blocked any effort by the Trump administration to deport Mahmoud Khalil – whose arrest and imminent deportation Trump celebrated on Turth Social today — until further proceedings play out. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
March 10, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Those who know me know I was highly critical of what I saw as some of the rhetorical excesses of the campus protests. Khalil and I wld probably get into a spat immediately. It's all the more important for people who believe as I do to say clearly, the protections of the law are for everyone.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
For those playing along at home, ideally for a good letter:
1) You have taken more than one class with them, ideally at least one of which was a small (35 students or less) course.
2) You have gone to office hours at least once.
3) You have discussed your career plans with them.
1) You have taken more than one class with them, ideally at least one of which was a small (35 students or less) course.
2) You have gone to office hours at least once.
3) You have discussed your career plans with them.
March 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
For those playing along at home, ideally for a good letter:
1) You have taken more than one class with them, ideally at least one of which was a small (35 students or less) course.
2) You have gone to office hours at least once.
3) You have discussed your career plans with them.
1) You have taken more than one class with them, ideally at least one of which was a small (35 students or less) course.
2) You have gone to office hours at least once.
3) You have discussed your career plans with them.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
One thing I wish was explained to undergraduates more clearly is how letters of recommendation work and what they need to do in order to develop a stable of people who can write strong letters.
Cause, like, if your first email to me - ever - is a LoR request, that's not a good sign.
Cause, like, if your first email to me - ever - is a LoR request, that's not a good sign.
March 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
One thing I wish was explained to undergraduates more clearly is how letters of recommendation work and what they need to do in order to develop a stable of people who can write strong letters.
Cause, like, if your first email to me - ever - is a LoR request, that's not a good sign.
Cause, like, if your first email to me - ever - is a LoR request, that's not a good sign.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
'Learning to ask the right questions' is basically the entire purpose of education and training.
If you have zero education, but learn how to ask AI models the right questions , in many jobs you will be able to outperform someone with an advanced degree, but who is unwilling to use Large Language Models.
Just takes a smartphone, curiosity to experiment and a mindset to learn.
Just takes a smartphone, curiosity to experiment and a mindset to learn.
February 17, 2025 at 7:33 PM
'Learning to ask the right questions' is basically the entire purpose of education and training.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
Too many people on here seem to believe there are exactly two kinds of Americans: ardent politically-obsessed Bluesky users, and frothing MAGA cultists.
There are a LOT of people in this country who *just don’t pay a lot of attention one way or another*.
And we absolutely can reach them.
There are a LOT of people in this country who *just don’t pay a lot of attention one way or another*.
And we absolutely can reach them.
February 16, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Too many people on here seem to believe there are exactly two kinds of Americans: ardent politically-obsessed Bluesky users, and frothing MAGA cultists.
There are a LOT of people in this country who *just don’t pay a lot of attention one way or another*.
And we absolutely can reach them.
There are a LOT of people in this country who *just don’t pay a lot of attention one way or another*.
And we absolutely can reach them.
Reposted by Jay Daigle
If you want to meaningfully cut federal spending, you need to tackle defense, social security, and healthcare outlays. What they’re doing is structurally radical but sort of trivial as cost reduction. Some of it is likely to be more expensive in the long run.
February 10, 2025 at 1:23 PM
If you want to meaningfully cut federal spending, you need to tackle defense, social security, and healthcare outlays. What they’re doing is structurally radical but sort of trivial as cost reduction. Some of it is likely to be more expensive in the long run.