Cross fingers.

Not in Canberra, am I right @elias-hallaj.bsky.social ?

If it’s no trouble, Tks. Will try to DM

Psephos is offline these days? The table I made from data I got from you several (many) years ago has eg a swing in Adelaide of 0.3% to Lib (while 1984 minus 1983 is 0.7) so I guess 0.3 is the swing of notional margin, according to psephos?

I don't think AEC published any (otherwise they'd be in my database). Malcolm M would've had one for sure; it's a matter of tracking that down ....

Lots of questions indeed!

Where you get swings?

😕
I don't know what you mean, comparing this with Trump. (I didn't underestimate the danger if he was re-elected.)
Press Club has its logistical logic, including not too many ppl in a row saying similar things. Withdrawing an invite (as opposed to not inviting) is not a good look though.

Storm, teacup, in.
I gather this Chris guy is a Pilgerlike figure in certain quarters?

The #Newspoll federal poll was taken between 29 September - 2 October 2025, sample of 1264, online survey. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 6 October, including voting, leader approval ratings, better Prime Minister, and a question on house prices. #auspol

A (simulated) win is a win. :-)
(I plan to make a program into which I can enter any primary vote swings and spit out seat results. It will be nightmarish after redistributions, but I’ll cross that bridge …)

Oh yes, thank you Kevin.

& assuming 2025 pref flows from major party voters ....

Lib take Ryan from Grn
Lib take Bradfield, Curtin & Kooyong from Ind
Inds take Bean & Fremantle from ALP
So, result is:
ALP on 74
L/NP 61
Grn 4
Inds 9
KAP 1
CA 1

Any comments, corrections, @kevinbonham.bsky.social @benraue.com anyone?
2/2

Tks for reading! By "we", who do you mean? If it's legislated, then it happens. (I don't expect it to happen btw, such a big change for the parties.)

We do need citizen %s tho, as non citizen residents, apart from those from Commonwealth countries, can’t vote in UK national elections.