Paul Mainwood
@paulmainwood.bsky.social
In the UK, we're having an early flu season. A (linear) chart of positivity from the weekly flu and respiratory surveillance report. www.gov.uk/government/s...
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
November 7, 2025 at 9:25 AM
In the UK, we're having an early flu season. A (linear) chart of positivity from the weekly flu and respiratory surveillance report. www.gov.uk/government/s...
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
A quick logit plot (right hand chart) suggest a hint of early levelling off, though past years (e.g., 2023/4) warn there can be multi-peaks.
Anyone remember that time in the 2000s sometime, where all new start-ups missed out letters at the end: Flikr, Tumblr, Scribd, Pixlr?
And then they all stopped.
Why? Or if it was all a domain name thing, then why did they stop?
And then they all stopped.
Why? Or if it was all a domain name thing, then why did they stop?
November 6, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Anyone remember that time in the 2000s sometime, where all new start-ups missed out letters at the end: Flikr, Tumblr, Scribd, Pixlr?
And then they all stopped.
Why? Or if it was all a domain name thing, then why did they stop?
And then they all stopped.
Why? Or if it was all a domain name thing, then why did they stop?
Look for this factor and you see it - and its absence - everywhere: Starmer and Reeves can't do it, Burnham can. Of the older generation of Democrats, only Biden.
I think one of the underrated things about Mamdani is just that he looks like he’s enjoying himself - which is incredibly appealing.
It’s one of those qualities which helps a lot of the most successful politicians, from Barack Obama to Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Being at ease with yourself.
It’s one of those qualities which helps a lot of the most successful politicians, from Barack Obama to Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Being at ease with yourself.
November 5, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Look for this factor and you see it - and its absence - everywhere: Starmer and Reeves can't do it, Burnham can. Of the older generation of Democrats, only Biden.
Al gore invented the algorithm, hence the name. When he said he invented the internet he was just being modest.
November 2, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Al gore invented the algorithm, hence the name. When he said he invented the internet he was just being modest.
Very unlikely to be relevant to anything that actually happens, but good to have "traffic light coalition" all lined up ready to go.
Latest Polling by @YouGov
🟣 Reform 27%
🔵 Tory 17%
🔴 Labour 17%
💚 Green 16%
🟠 Lib Dem 15%
This is the LOWEST Labour
has ever polled with YouGov.
This is the HIGHEST @greenparty.org.uk has ever polled with YouGov.
4 parties within 2 points of each other for second place.
🟣 Reform 27%
🔵 Tory 17%
🔴 Labour 17%
💚 Green 16%
🟠 Lib Dem 15%
This is the LOWEST Labour
has ever polled with YouGov.
This is the HIGHEST @greenparty.org.uk has ever polled with YouGov.
4 parties within 2 points of each other for second place.
October 28, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Very unlikely to be relevant to anything that actually happens, but good to have "traffic light coalition" all lined up ready to go.
Genuinely don’t know whether Isaac Chotiner is a unique talent, or just the only journalist in the United States who’s ever asked a follow-up question.
www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
Why Biden’s White House Press Secretary Is Leaving the Democratic Party
Karine Jean-Pierre feels that Democrats were so mean to Biden that she is becoming an Independent.
www.newyorker.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Genuinely don’t know whether Isaac Chotiner is a unique talent, or just the only journalist in the United States who’s ever asked a follow-up question.
www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
Starting to suspect that neither the Democrats nor UK Labour understand that politics is a visual medium, and this is fundamental to their problem.
October 26, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Starting to suspect that neither the Democrats nor UK Labour understand that politics is a visual medium, and this is fundamental to their problem.
He has no idea wtf is going on.
Quick, ask him why he pardoned the founder of BOFA.
Quick, ask him why he pardoned the founder of BOFA.
COLLINS: Today you pardoned the founded of Binance. Can you explain why you did that?
TRUMP: Which one was that?
COLLINS: The founder of Binance
TRUMP: I believe we're talking about the same person, because I do pardon a lot of people. I don't know. He was recommended by a lot of people.
TRUMP: Which one was that?
COLLINS: The founder of Binance
TRUMP: I believe we're talking about the same person, because I do pardon a lot of people. I don't know. He was recommended by a lot of people.
October 23, 2025 at 8:23 PM
He has no idea wtf is going on.
Quick, ask him why he pardoned the founder of BOFA.
Quick, ask him why he pardoned the founder of BOFA.
In my (very) humble opinion - this is the killer-app of wastewater data: to quickly find places where previously rare viruses are popping up.
(As opposed to trying to use it to derive the prevalence of common or endemic viruses, where it seems far more prone to error.)
(As opposed to trying to use it to derive the prevalence of common or endemic viruses, where it seems far more prone to error.)
Warning, we've had more measles detections from wastewater in the last month than in the last 2 years combined.
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
DOH MONITORING FIRST WASTEWATER DETECTION OF MEASLES IN KAUAʻI COUNTY
HONOLULU — The Hawaiʻi Department of Health (DOH) is monitoring a positive wastewater sample for measles virus, the first wastewater detection of the virus for Kauaʻi County. The sample was collected ...
https://health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroom/doh-monitoring-first-wastewater-detection-of-measles-in-kauaʻi-county/
October 23, 2025 at 3:35 PM
In my (very) humble opinion - this is the killer-app of wastewater data: to quickly find places where previously rare viruses are popping up.
(As opposed to trying to use it to derive the prevalence of common or endemic viruses, where it seems far more prone to error.)
(As opposed to trying to use it to derive the prevalence of common or endemic viruses, where it seems far more prone to error.)
Despite all the rhetoric, the US Government is still spending massively more than they did last year. It's +6.9% to this point - well above any inflationary increase.
October 23, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Despite all the rhetoric, the US Government is still spending massively more than they did last year. It's +6.9% to this point - well above any inflationary increase.
The Tories' bill on ILR is utterly insane.
As Stephen Bush says www.ft.com/content/9a1d..., the criteria in the white paper dictate the deportation of ~5% of the UK population: proportionally more than Idi Amin expelled from Uganda & comparable to the population movement at Partition.
They're mad.
As Stephen Bush says www.ft.com/content/9a1d..., the criteria in the white paper dictate the deportation of ~5% of the UK population: proportionally more than Idi Amin expelled from Uganda & comparable to the population movement at Partition.
They're mad.
Tory deportation plan would upend Britain
Proposing such a radical bill with little public support is a gift to Nigel Farage
www.ft.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:08 PM
The Tories' bill on ILR is utterly insane.
As Stephen Bush says www.ft.com/content/9a1d..., the criteria in the white paper dictate the deportation of ~5% of the UK population: proportionally more than Idi Amin expelled from Uganda & comparable to the population movement at Partition.
They're mad.
As Stephen Bush says www.ft.com/content/9a1d..., the criteria in the white paper dictate the deportation of ~5% of the UK population: proportionally more than Idi Amin expelled from Uganda & comparable to the population movement at Partition.
They're mad.
October 23, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Reposted by Paul Mainwood
The London Business School might want to rethink the name of this course.
www.london.edu/executive-ed...
www.london.edu/executive-ed...
October 22, 2025 at 8:49 AM
The London Business School might want to rethink the name of this course.
www.london.edu/executive-ed...
www.london.edu/executive-ed...
How to influence billionaires:
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest moral force in our time, they listen to you (Effective Altruism et al)
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest political force in our time, they listen to you (Yarvin et al)
Doesn't look too complicated.
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest moral force in our time, they listen to you (Effective Altruism et al)
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest political force in our time, they listen to you (Yarvin et al)
Doesn't look too complicated.
October 22, 2025 at 7:47 AM
How to influence billionaires:
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest moral force in our time, they listen to you (Effective Altruism et al)
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest political force in our time, they listen to you (Yarvin et al)
Doesn't look too complicated.
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest moral force in our time, they listen to you (Effective Altruism et al)
- If you claim that billionaires are the greatest political force in our time, they listen to you (Yarvin et al)
Doesn't look too complicated.
Strange that Camus “supposed” this philosopher, given the towering contemporary example.
“Let’s suppose a philosopher who after having published several works declares in a new book: “Up to now I was going in the wrong direction. I am going to begin all over. I think now that I was wrong.”
(1/2)
(1/2)
October 21, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Strange that Camus “supposed” this philosopher, given the towering contemporary example.
Timeline this morning about equal parts photos of massive happy crowds, versus riffs on “Diarrhea Don, our proudly incontinent President” and it’s taken me a little time to figure out why.
Quite thankful the Americans will go to bed soon.
Quite thankful the Americans will go to bed soon.
October 19, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Timeline this morning about equal parts photos of massive happy crowds, versus riffs on “Diarrhea Don, our proudly incontinent President” and it’s taken me a little time to figure out why.
Quite thankful the Americans will go to bed soon.
Quite thankful the Americans will go to bed soon.
Sir David Attenborough was born three years before Anne Frank. One of the more disconcerting overlaps I know of.
October 18, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Sir David Attenborough was born three years before Anne Frank. One of the more disconcerting overlaps I know of.
In philosophy “I don’t understand how … ”
(A universally understood shorthand for: “I am about to unleash a devastating objection, but will frame it with a paper-thin layer of faux-modesty as if the problem is with my comprehension.)
(A universally understood shorthand for: “I am about to unleash a devastating objection, but will frame it with a paper-thin layer of faux-modesty as if the problem is with my comprehension.)
In honour of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand.
rm -rf ~/
rm -rf ~/
"The chancellor approved it"
October 12, 2025 at 5:24 PM
In philosophy “I don’t understand how … ”
(A universally understood shorthand for: “I am about to unleash a devastating objection, but will frame it with a paper-thin layer of faux-modesty as if the problem is with my comprehension.)
(A universally understood shorthand for: “I am about to unleash a devastating objection, but will frame it with a paper-thin layer of faux-modesty as if the problem is with my comprehension.)
Reposted by Paul Mainwood
Hertfordshire County Council rules for library use, 1930
October 11, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Hertfordshire County Council rules for library use, 1930
Covid boosters are important when you're 79.
Many people are saying this.
Many people are saying this.
October 11, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Covid boosters are important when you're 79.
Many people are saying this.
Many people are saying this.
Reposted by Paul Mainwood
The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.
October 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.
Reposted by Paul Mainwood
First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 9, 2025 at 3:25 PM
First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...