On-Off Basketball
@onoffbasketball.bsky.social
Colten Kurumada. Website for free agency and salary cap analysis, some gambling stuff. Public work currently discontinued. Salary cap/CBA expert. SBC Alum 2021
https://onoffbasketball.com
https://onoffbasketball.com
Pinned
2024-2025 NBA Over/Unders - Memphis Grizzlies | On-Off Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies 2024-2025 Over/Unders pick for regular season wins
www.onoffbasketball.com
The Grizzlies went over their 47.5 line on the final day of the season despite sitting everyone, being the last team to clinch. I had their under, so I finish at 20-10. That’s a 27.3% return on standard odds, but I did a little better shopping around
www.onoffbasketball.com/24-25-over-u...
www.onoffbasketball.com/24-25-over-u...
Some news:
I am excited to announce I have accepted a position with the Phoenix Suns! As such, On-Off Basketball will be discontinued, and I won’t be having any public basketball material.
I greatly enjoyed running this site and appreciate all that supported it!
I am excited to announce I have accepted a position with the Phoenix Suns! As such, On-Off Basketball will be discontinued, and I won’t be having any public basketball material.
I greatly enjoyed running this site and appreciate all that supported it!
October 12, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Some news:
I am excited to announce I have accepted a position with the Phoenix Suns! As such, On-Off Basketball will be discontinued, and I won’t be having any public basketball material.
I greatly enjoyed running this site and appreciate all that supported it!
I am excited to announce I have accepted a position with the Phoenix Suns! As such, On-Off Basketball will be discontinued, and I won’t be having any public basketball material.
I greatly enjoyed running this site and appreciate all that supported it!
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
A quarter courtside would disabuse any attentive viewer of so many BS narratives about the NBA. Such as
* they don’t play hard
* they don’t play defense
* the game isn’t physical anymore
* nobody runs anything
* “I could score in an NBA game”
* they don’t play hard
* they don’t play defense
* the game isn’t physical anymore
* nobody runs anything
* “I could score in an NBA game”
Every casual fan should get to spend a quarter sitting courtside so they can see how close to being blocked almost every perimeter shot is and how good the shooters are at getting them off
Good stuff. Of course it doesn’t. These are NBA players, who know exceedingly accurately how much time and space they need to got their shot off. For them most part I’d be willing to wager they never even noticed the Kornet Kontest happening.
August 9, 2025 at 8:19 PM
A quarter courtside would disabuse any attentive viewer of so many BS narratives about the NBA. Such as
* they don’t play hard
* they don’t play defense
* the game isn’t physical anymore
* nobody runs anything
* “I could score in an NBA game”
* they don’t play hard
* they don’t play defense
* the game isn’t physical anymore
* nobody runs anything
* “I could score in an NBA game”
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
New for @theathletic.com - Rookie contract extensions for the class of 2022. Why the new CBA makes it harder to complete them, and what plausible deals might look like for the 17 players who are still eligible to sign them.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...
Why NBA rookie contract extensions are harder now and what to expect with 2022 class
www.nytimes.com
August 6, 2025 at 12:00 PM
New for @theathletic.com - Rookie contract extensions for the class of 2022. Why the new CBA makes it harder to complete them, and what plausible deals might look like for the 17 players who are still eligible to sign them.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...
Chris Boucher is signing a one-year minimum contract with Boston. Boucher was one of my “best minimum contract guys” heading into free agency, so I like this for the Celtics.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faboucher
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faboucher
Chris Boucher 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
August 5, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Chris Boucher is signing a one-year minimum contract with Boston. Boucher was one of my “best minimum contract guys” heading into free agency, so I like this for the Celtics.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faboucher
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faboucher
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
Teamed up with @timbontemps.bsky.social to bring back our "all-in tiers" evaluating NBA team timelines and what they're attempting to do this season: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
NBA all-in tiers: What all 30 teams are chasing in 2025-26
Not everyone can be all-in for the title in 2025-26. See each franchise's priority No. 1 for the upcoming season.
www.espn.com
August 4, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Teamed up with @timbontemps.bsky.social to bring back our "all-in tiers" evaluating NBA team timelines and what they're attempting to do this season: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
With the heavy majority of the NBA's offseason moves complete, I handed out grades to 29 teams ... with one remaining incomplete: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
We graded every NBA team's offseason: Which teams got an A and which got an F?
Kevin Pelton hands out offseason grades for each of the NBA's 30 teams. Who passed, and who scraped by?
www.espn.com
July 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
With the heavy majority of the NBA's offseason moves complete, I handed out grades to 29 teams ... with one remaining incomplete: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
New for @theathletic.com - My biggest disappointments from Summer League
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
NBA Summer League disappointments: Nets’ draft class, the Pelicans and more
Questions about Brooklyn's draft strategy didn't fade after the Nets' summer-league showing in Vegas.
www.nytimes.com
July 25, 2025 at 2:29 PM
New for @theathletic.com - My biggest disappointments from Summer League
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
Jared Butler is signing a one-year, non-guaranteed contract with the Suns. He has shown some nice flashes for the Wizards and 76ers the past couple years, and has a real shot at making the opening night roster.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fajbutler
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fajbutler
Jared Butler 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 24, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Jared Butler is signing a one-year, non-guaranteed contract with the Suns. He has shown some nice flashes for the Wizards and 76ers the past couple years, and has a real shot at making the opening night roster.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fajbutler
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fajbutler
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
New for @theathletic.com - the best of Summer League, including Cooper Flagg, the Furph's dunk, baskets that didn't count, and more ...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/650...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/650...
Cooper Flagg, Johnny Furphy’s dunk and other 2025 NBA Summer League standouts
The conventional wisdom is that everything you see on the court in Vegas is a mirage, but that's not entirely true.
www.nytimes.com
July 23, 2025 at 2:55 PM
New for @theathletic.com - the best of Summer League, including Cooper Flagg, the Furph's dunk, baskets that didn't count, and more ...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/650...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/650...
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
Took a look back at 10 important moves from the 2024 NBA offseason a year later, including one I don't think has gotten enough scrutiny, the Nets' deal to reacquire their own first-round picks from the Houston Rockets: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Regrading the biggest moves of the 2024 NBA offseason, one year later
NBA expert Kevin Pelton looks back at 10 of the biggest trade and free agency moves and regrades them.
www.espn.com
July 21, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Took a look back at 10 important moves from the 2024 NBA offseason a year later, including one I don't think has gotten enough scrutiny, the Nets' deal to reacquire their own first-round picks from the Houston Rockets: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
Grade for the Clippers adding Bradley Beal and analysis of what his buyout means for the Suns: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Grading 30-plus NBA deals, including Booker's historic -- and risky -- extension
Kevin Pelton breaks down the most impactful signings, including max deals for Booker, Gilgeous-Alexander and Banchero.
www.espn.com
July 17, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Grade for the Clippers adding Bradley Beal and analysis of what his buyout means for the Suns: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Isaiah Jackson re-signs with the Pacers for 3-years, $21 million, so his starting salary will likely be right around what his Qualifying Offer was. Excited to see him back healthy and see what kind of impact he can have with Myles Turner gone.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faijackson
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faijackson
Isaiah Jackson 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 11, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Isaiah Jackson re-signs with the Pacers for 3-years, $21 million, so his starting salary will likely be right around what his Qualifying Offer was. Excited to see him back healthy and see what kind of impact he can have with Myles Turner gone.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faijackson
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faijackson
Using rough math, after the John Collins trade, the Jazz could create enough cap space to throw a 4-year, $81M offer sheet at Jonathan Kuminga or Quentin Grimes.
If Kevin Love agrees to a buyout and gives back $3.6M (his minimum salary), the offer sheet could be about $96M
If Kevin Love agrees to a buyout and gives back $3.6M (his minimum salary), the offer sheet could be about $96M
July 7, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Using rough math, after the John Collins trade, the Jazz could create enough cap space to throw a 4-year, $81M offer sheet at Jonathan Kuminga or Quentin Grimes.
If Kevin Love agrees to a buyout and gives back $3.6M (his minimum salary), the offer sheet could be about $96M
If Kevin Love agrees to a buyout and gives back $3.6M (his minimum salary), the offer sheet could be about $96M
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
This (finally) aligns the NBA with the NCAA on last-second shots. The NCAA actually goes farther: "A FGA is not charged if an unsuccessful shot is taken near the expiration of time for a period *or for the shot clock*, and it is the statistician’s opinion that the shot was a desperation shot ... ."
Starting next season, the NBA won't count an end of quarter heave as a missed shot for a player. It'll be a missed shot for the team. That's if the shot came from at least about 36 feet out, came in the final 3 seconds of the first three quarters, and the play started in the backcourt.
July 5, 2025 at 5:30 PM
This (finally) aligns the NBA with the NCAA on last-second shots. The NCAA actually goes farther: "A FGA is not charged if an unsuccessful shot is taken near the expiration of time for a period *or for the shot clock*, and it is the statistician’s opinion that the shot was a desperation shot ... ."
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
New for @theathletic.bsky.social - Winners, losers and in-betweens from the first 48 hours of free agency
And the biggest loser is ... July
www.nytimes.com/athletic/647...
And the biggest loser is ... July
www.nytimes.com/athletic/647...
Winners (Hawks), losers (July) and more (Lakers) from NBA free agency's first days
www.nytimes.com
July 3, 2025 at 3:28 PM
New for @theathletic.bsky.social - Winners, losers and in-betweens from the first 48 hours of free agency
And the biggest loser is ... July
www.nytimes.com/athletic/647...
And the biggest loser is ... July
www.nytimes.com/athletic/647...
Free Agency summary updated for the Spencer Dinwiddie and Dante Exum signings. Everything should be up to date for all reported signings as of now
onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
2025 Free Agents | 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
onoffbasketball.com
July 3, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Free Agency summary updated for the Spencer Dinwiddie and Dante Exum signings. Everything should be up to date for all reported signings as of now
onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
The Kings are likely left with just minimum contracts available to fill out the roster and stay below the luxury tax. That makes Trey Lyles pretty available as a solid combo big
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025falyles
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025falyles
Trey Lyles 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 3, 2025 at 4:17 PM
The Kings are likely left with just minimum contracts available to fill out the roster and stay below the luxury tax. That makes Trey Lyles pretty available as a solid combo big
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025falyles
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025falyles
Precious Achiuwa probably can't go back to New York unless it's just on a minimum contract, so I'm interested to see where he lands. I have always liked him more than the league seems to have, but he could be a solid addition for some team.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faachiuwa
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faachiuwa
Precious Achiuwa 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 2, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Precious Achiuwa probably can't go back to New York unless it's just on a minimum contract, so I'm interested to see where he lands. I have always liked him more than the league seems to have, but he could be a solid addition for some team.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faachiuwa
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025faachiuwa
There aren't many free agents remaining that are more than minimum-salary players. The main ones are the restricted free agents (Kuminga, Giddey, Thomas, Grimes) and the old guys (Horford, CP3, Westbrook).
Full summary here:
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
Full summary here:
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
2025 Free Agents | 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 2, 2025 at 4:38 PM
There aren't many free agents remaining that are more than minimum-salary players. The main ones are the restricted free agents (Kuminga, Giddey, Thomas, Grimes) and the old guys (Horford, CP3, Westbrook).
Full summary here:
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
Full summary here:
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
Tre Mann re-signed with Charlotte on a 3-year, $24 million contract, which was close to the 2-year, $15 million I had projected for him.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fatrmann
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fatrmann
Tre Mann 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 2, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Tre Mann re-signed with Charlotte on a 3-year, $24 million contract, which was close to the 2-year, $15 million I had projected for him.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fatrmann
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fatrmann
Reposted by On-Off Basketball
Give me all the moments of Legs and UD breaking down film on ESPN like this.
Remember the old NFL Matchup show? I wish ESPN would do something like that for the NBA. I'm always looking to get better with learning the game and Legs is awesome at breaking it down!
Remember the old NFL Matchup show? I wish ESPN would do something like that for the NBA. I'm always looking to get better with learning the game and Legs is awesome at breaking it down!
July 1, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Give me all the moments of Legs and UD breaking down film on ESPN like this.
Remember the old NFL Matchup show? I wish ESPN would do something like that for the NBA. I'm always looking to get better with learning the game and Legs is awesome at breaking it down!
Remember the old NFL Matchup show? I wish ESPN would do something like that for the NBA. I'm always looking to get better with learning the game and Legs is awesome at breaking it down!
This feels very “low-upside, high-downside” for the Raptors
Breaking: Toronto Raptors center Jakob Poeltl has agreed on a four-year, $104M contract extension with the franchise through 2029-30, sources tell Shams Charania.
Get breaking news alerts from Shams Charania through the ESPN app: espn.smart.link/paubshxwt
Get breaking news alerts from Shams Charania through the ESPN app: espn.smart.link/paubshxwt
July 1, 2025 at 6:59 PM
This feels very “low-upside, high-downside” for the Raptors
The Toronto Raptors get a stretch big on a two-year minimum contract in Sandro Mamukelashvili. I think he could get real minutes in Toronto.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025famamuke...
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025famamuke...
Sandro Mamukelashvili 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 1, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The Toronto Raptors get a stretch big on a two-year minimum contract in Sandro Mamukelashvili. I think he could get real minutes in Toronto.
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025famamuke...
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025famamuke...
The site should be up-to-date as of now! Check it out to see who has signed, how that compared to my projection, and who hasn’t signed, plus analysis of each player to learn more about them
The 2025 Free Agency summary page and individual player pages are currently up to date for the deals done! We'll see a flood of more deals soon, and I'll update the site as quickly as I can, but check it out to see all the deals that have been agreed to!
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
www.onoffbasketball.com/2025fa
2025 Free Agents | 2025 Offseason Preview | On-Off Basketball
www.onoffbasketball.com
July 1, 2025 at 4:32 PM
The site should be up-to-date as of now! Check it out to see who has signed, how that compared to my projection, and who hasn’t signed, plus analysis of each player to learn more about them