I honestly think it'll come down to whether PSG finishes around or below 70 pts at the end of the season. It seems very unlikely another Ligue 1 team can go any higher than 70-75 pts

2) based on Elo ratings, there is no clear strong contender yet. Lille, Lyon and Monaco looked decent last year but are already seven points behind. Marseille and Lens are only two points behind but they've only managed 25 pts in 12 games, so nothing that could push their rating anywhere too high

1) the model doesn't consider the possibility that PSG could be a much worse team in a few months. Our MC simulations just keep the Elo constant throughout the season

There's been a lot of talk about the real possibility of having a title race in France this year. Our model is still giving PSG a 98% chance and I think there's two main factors

Movers for winning the UCL (>1% odds change):

Winners:
Bayern: 11%-> 14%
Liverpool: 11% -> 13%
Man City: 11% -> 13%
Arsenal: 25% -> 26%

Losers:
PSG: 14% -> 10%
Real Madrid: 9% -> 7%
Barcelona: 5% -> 4%

Inter lost a bit of ground after the Napoli defeat, but our model still confident in them with 56% chance of winning Serie A. Napoli only at 20% despite now being at the top of the table. Some significant Elo differences between the two sides, very likely driven by performance in UEFA competitions

Real Madrid also at 80% of winning La Liga. Similar story here, with bookies a bit more conservative, and not giving such a high odds at only ~25% of the season

Who's the one that ended at Puntarenas? Asking coz I'm obviously from CR and can only think of Joel Campbell and he hasn't played there

Movers for winning the UCL (>1% odds change):

Winners:
Man City: 9%-> 12%
Arsenal: 22% -> 24%

Losers:
Bayern: 10% -> 9%

Race for the top 4 in Ligue 1 is starting to look very interesting, after Lens and Strasbourg keep confirming their solid starts. There's six teams with serious chances of making the top 4 along with PSG

Marseille 77%
Lille 66%
Lyon 45%
Lens 35%
Strasbourg 34%
Monaco 29%

Ligue 1: Our model still very optimistic for PSG even after they dropped points at home and lost the first place in the table

PSG 94%
Marseille 3%
Lille 2%
Others 1%