Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com oddsinshadow.substack.com
Really interesting how this four-team single-game bracket format affects strong teams. Italy for example would get at least like a 75% chance on a two-legged playoff against Wales. But having to win two single-game playoffs (with the second one playing as visitor) puts them barely above 50%
November 21, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Really interesting how this four-team single-game bracket format affects strong teams. Italy for example would get at least like a 75% chance on a two-legged playoff against Wales. But having to win two single-game playoffs (with the second one playing as visitor) puts them barely above 50%
🚀 To advance to World Cup — Inter-Confederation Playoffs
Path 1
DR Congo — 67%
Jamaica — 30%
New Caledonia — 3%
Path 2
Bolivia — 48%
Iraq — 45%
Suriname — 6%
Path 1
DR Congo — 67%
Jamaica — 30%
New Caledonia — 3%
Path 2
Bolivia — 48%
Iraq — 45%
Suriname — 6%
November 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
🚀 To advance to World Cup — Inter-Confederation Playoffs
Path 1
DR Congo — 67%
Jamaica — 30%
New Caledonia — 3%
Path 2
Bolivia — 48%
Iraq — 45%
Suriname — 6%
Path 1
DR Congo — 67%
Jamaica — 30%
New Caledonia — 3%
Path 2
Bolivia — 48%
Iraq — 45%
Suriname — 6%
🚀 To advance to World Cup — UEFA Playoffs
A
Italy — 55%
Wales — 35%
Bosnia and H. — 6%
N. Ireland — 4%
B
Ukraine — 43%
Poland — 31%
Sweden — 16%
Albania — 10%
C
Turkey — 55%
Slovakia — 22%
Kosovo — 18%
Romania — 4%
D
Denmark — 53%
Czech Rep. — 31%
Rep. of Ireland — 13%
N. Macedonia — 3%
A
Italy — 55%
Wales — 35%
Bosnia and H. — 6%
N. Ireland — 4%
B
Ukraine — 43%
Poland — 31%
Sweden — 16%
Albania — 10%
C
Turkey — 55%
Slovakia — 22%
Kosovo — 18%
Romania — 4%
D
Denmark — 53%
Czech Rep. — 31%
Rep. of Ireland — 13%
N. Macedonia — 3%
November 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🚀 To advance to World Cup — UEFA Playoffs
A
Italy — 55%
Wales — 35%
Bosnia and H. — 6%
N. Ireland — 4%
B
Ukraine — 43%
Poland — 31%
Sweden — 16%
Albania — 10%
C
Turkey — 55%
Slovakia — 22%
Kosovo — 18%
Romania — 4%
D
Denmark — 53%
Czech Rep. — 31%
Rep. of Ireland — 13%
N. Macedonia — 3%
A
Italy — 55%
Wales — 35%
Bosnia and H. — 6%
N. Ireland — 4%
B
Ukraine — 43%
Poland — 31%
Sweden — 16%
Albania — 10%
C
Turkey — 55%
Slovakia — 22%
Kosovo — 18%
Romania — 4%
D
Denmark — 53%
Czech Rep. — 31%
Rep. of Ireland — 13%
N. Macedonia — 3%
Just for kicks, I'll be sharing the odds to advance to the World Cup via Playoffs. Since these are two-round, single-game brackets, there's no need to do any MC simulations, and this can be easily estimated using Elo ratings from the famous eloratings.net
November 21, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Just for kicks, I'll be sharing the odds to advance to the World Cup via Playoffs. Since these are two-round, single-game brackets, there's no need to do any MC simulations, and this can be easily estimated using Elo ratings from the famous eloratings.net
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
November 10, 2025 at 2:45 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
November 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
November 10, 2025 at 1:14 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Movers for advancing to UCL KO round
Winners
Leverkusen: 49% -> 77%
Pafos: 12% -> 36%
Monaco: 52% -> 76%
Atalanta: 77% -> 94%
Galatasaray: 87% -> 99%
Losers
Villarreal: 62%-> 32%
Marseille: 64% -> 42%
Benfica: 28% -> 13%
Bodø/Glimt: 20% -> 7%
Union SG: 39% -> 27%
Winners
Leverkusen: 49% -> 77%
Pafos: 12% -> 36%
Monaco: 52% -> 76%
Atalanta: 77% -> 94%
Galatasaray: 87% -> 99%
Losers
Villarreal: 62%-> 32%
Marseille: 64% -> 42%
Benfica: 28% -> 13%
Bodø/Glimt: 20% -> 7%
Union SG: 39% -> 27%
November 6, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Movers for advancing to UCL KO round
Winners
Leverkusen: 49% -> 77%
Pafos: 12% -> 36%
Monaco: 52% -> 76%
Atalanta: 77% -> 94%
Galatasaray: 87% -> 99%
Losers
Villarreal: 62%-> 32%
Marseille: 64% -> 42%
Benfica: 28% -> 13%
Bodø/Glimt: 20% -> 7%
Union SG: 39% -> 27%
Winners
Leverkusen: 49% -> 77%
Pafos: 12% -> 36%
Monaco: 52% -> 76%
Atalanta: 77% -> 94%
Galatasaray: 87% -> 99%
Losers
Villarreal: 62%-> 32%
Marseille: 64% -> 42%
Benfica: 28% -> 13%
Bodø/Glimt: 20% -> 7%
Union SG: 39% -> 27%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 4:
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
November 6, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 4:
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Our model is now giving Arsenal a whopping 80% chance of winning the EPL this year. This is a bit more optimisitc than bookies, our model still probably driven by a lowish Man City elo
October 28, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Our model is now giving Arsenal a whopping 80% chance of winning the EPL this year. This is a bit more optimisitc than bookies, our model still probably driven by a lowish Man City elo
Movers for advancing to UCL KO round
Winners
PSV: 28% -> 63%
Galatasaray: 65% -> 87%
Sporting CP: 71% -> 90%
Athletic Club: 31% -> 46%
Newcastle: 89% -> 97%
Losers
Leverkusen: 66% -> 50%
Union Saint-Gilloise: 52% -> 37%
FC Copenhagen: 28% -> 16%
Eint Frankfurt: 61% -> 51%
Bodø/Glimt: 32% -> 22%
Winners
PSV: 28% -> 63%
Galatasaray: 65% -> 87%
Sporting CP: 71% -> 90%
Athletic Club: 31% -> 46%
Newcastle: 89% -> 97%
Losers
Leverkusen: 66% -> 50%
Union Saint-Gilloise: 52% -> 37%
FC Copenhagen: 28% -> 16%
Eint Frankfurt: 61% -> 51%
Bodø/Glimt: 32% -> 22%
October 23, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Movers for advancing to UCL KO round
Winners
PSV: 28% -> 63%
Galatasaray: 65% -> 87%
Sporting CP: 71% -> 90%
Athletic Club: 31% -> 46%
Newcastle: 89% -> 97%
Losers
Leverkusen: 66% -> 50%
Union Saint-Gilloise: 52% -> 37%
FC Copenhagen: 28% -> 16%
Eint Frankfurt: 61% -> 51%
Bodø/Glimt: 32% -> 22%
Winners
PSV: 28% -> 63%
Galatasaray: 65% -> 87%
Sporting CP: 71% -> 90%
Athletic Club: 31% -> 46%
Newcastle: 89% -> 97%
Losers
Leverkusen: 66% -> 50%
Union Saint-Gilloise: 52% -> 37%
FC Copenhagen: 28% -> 16%
Eint Frankfurt: 61% -> 51%
Bodø/Glimt: 32% -> 22%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 3:
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
October 23, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 3:
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Updates from this weekend play.
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
October 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Updates from this weekend play.
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
Reposted by Pierre Lestru
Depends a bit on the level of beginner
Statsbomb public dataset is a good starting point for its range: international tournaments, full club seasons, different eras. If you want to make a shot map in a match from every decade since the 1970s, you can do that
github.com/statsbomb/op...
Statsbomb public dataset is a good starting point for its range: international tournaments, full club seasons, different eras. If you want to make a shot map in a match from every decade since the 1970s, you can do that
github.com/statsbomb/op...
October 14, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Depends a bit on the level of beginner
Statsbomb public dataset is a good starting point for its range: international tournaments, full club seasons, different eras. If you want to make a shot map in a match from every decade since the 1970s, you can do that
github.com/statsbomb/op...
Statsbomb public dataset is a good starting point for its range: international tournaments, full club seasons, different eras. If you want to make a shot map in a match from every decade since the 1970s, you can do that
github.com/statsbomb/op...
Some updates going into the FIFA break
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
October 6, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Some updates going into the FIFA break
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 2:
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
October 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 2:
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Updates from this weekend:
Premier League title now back to a close two-team race after Liverpool's first loss of the season
Liverpool 51%
Arsenal 41%
Man City 6%
Others ~2%
Premier League title now back to a close two-team race after Liverpool's first loss of the season
Liverpool 51%
Arsenal 41%
Man City 6%
Others ~2%
September 29, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Updates from this weekend:
Premier League title now back to a close two-team race after Liverpool's first loss of the season
Liverpool 51%
Arsenal 41%
Man City 6%
Others ~2%
Premier League title now back to a close two-team race after Liverpool's first loss of the season
Liverpool 51%
Arsenal 41%
Man City 6%
Others ~2%
Surprised to see no movement for Serie A title chances after Napoli's win. Yet considering Pisa has by far the lowest Elo in the league, these were 3 points our model was pretty much already giving to Napoli
Updated chances:
Inter 35%
Napoli 30%
Juve 11%
Roma 11%
Atalanta 8%
Milan 5%
Updated chances:
Inter 35%
Napoli 30%
Juve 11%
Roma 11%
Atalanta 8%
Milan 5%
September 23, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Surprised to see no movement for Serie A title chances after Napoli's win. Yet considering Pisa has by far the lowest Elo in the league, these were 3 points our model was pretty much already giving to Napoli
Updated chances:
Inter 35%
Napoli 30%
Juve 11%
Roma 11%
Atalanta 8%
Milan 5%
Updated chances:
Inter 35%
Napoli 30%
Juve 11%
Roma 11%
Atalanta 8%
Milan 5%
Some interesting updates from the weekend games.
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
September 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Some interesting updates from the weekend games.
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 1:
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
September 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 1:
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
After refreshing my models, I was only really interested in looking at Serie A to see the movement after Juve's win over Inter. Napoli are now slightly favoured, but model still bullish on Inter. Roughly 1/3 for Napoli, 1/3 for Inter, 1/6 for Juve and 1/6 for 3 clubs
September 16, 2025 at 4:13 AM
After refreshing my models, I was only really interested in looking at Serie A to see the movement after Juve's win over Inter. Napoli are now slightly favoured, but model still bullish on Inter. Roughly 1/3 for Napoli, 1/3 for Inter, 1/6 for Juve and 1/6 for 3 clubs
I hadn't heard about CIES before and I haven't seen their modeling details... but holy crap, how does PSG not have at least 90%? Or how do Barça and Madrid add up to only 70%?
#PSG are the most likely title winners out of Europe's big five leagues, according to new research from CIES.
September 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I hadn't heard about CIES before and I haven't seen their modeling details... but holy crap, how does PSG not have at least 90%? Or how do Barça and Madrid add up to only 70%?
