Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com oddsinshadow.substack.com
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
Paris S-G — 98%
Marseille — 1%
Lens — 1%
Others — <1%
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
November 10, 2025 at 2:45 PM
🏆 Bundesliga (Germany) title odds
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
Bayern Munich — 98%
Dortmund — 1%
Leverkusen — 1%
Others — <1%
Bayern still not worried despite dropping their first points of the season
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
November 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
Inter — 76%
Roma — 10%
Napoli — 7%
Milan — 5%
Juventus — 1%
Inter still firm favourites while Napoli lose considerable ground with defeat at Bologna
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
Real Madrid — 68%
Barcelona — 27%
Atlético Madrid — 4%
Villarreal — 1%
Others — <1%
La Liga also opening up after Madrid dropped points in Vallecas
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
November 10, 2025 at 1:14 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Arsenal — 71%
Manchester City — 20%
Liverpool — 6%
Chelsea — 1%
City still well alive on the title race after a commanding win against defending champs
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 4:
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
November 6, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 4:
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Arsenal 26%
Bayern 14%
Man City 13%
Liverpool 13%
PSG 10%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 4%
Chelsea 3%
Newcastle 2%
Inter lost a bit of ground after the Napoli defeat, but our model still confident in them with 56% chance of winning Serie A. Napoli only at 20% despite now being at the top of the table. Some significant Elo differences between the two sides, very likely driven by performance in UEFA competitions
October 28, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Inter lost a bit of ground after the Napoli defeat, but our model still confident in them with 56% chance of winning Serie A. Napoli only at 20% despite now being at the top of the table. Some significant Elo differences between the two sides, very likely driven by performance in UEFA competitions
Real Madrid also at 80% of winning La Liga. Similar story here, with bookies a bit more conservative, and not giving such a high odds at only ~25% of the season
October 28, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Real Madrid also at 80% of winning La Liga. Similar story here, with bookies a bit more conservative, and not giving such a high odds at only ~25% of the season
Our model is now giving Arsenal a whopping 80% chance of winning the EPL this year. This is a bit more optimisitc than bookies, our model still probably driven by a lowish Man City elo
October 28, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Our model is now giving Arsenal a whopping 80% chance of winning the EPL this year. This is a bit more optimisitc than bookies, our model still probably driven by a lowish Man City elo
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 3:
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
October 23, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 3:
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Arsenal 24%
PSG 15%
Man City 12%
Liverpool 12%
Bayern 9%
Real Madrid 7%
Inter 6%
Barcelona 5%
Chelsea 4%
Ligue 1: Our model still very optimistic for PSG even after they dropped points at home and lost the first place in the table
PSG 94%
Marseille 3%
Lille 2%
Others 1%
PSG 94%
Marseille 3%
Lille 2%
Others 1%
October 20, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Ligue 1: Our model still very optimistic for PSG even after they dropped points at home and lost the first place in the table
PSG 94%
Marseille 3%
Lille 2%
Others 1%
PSG 94%
Marseille 3%
Lille 2%
Others 1%
Bundesliga: Bayern keeps adding marginal gains their huge title odds after winning Der Klassiker
Bayern 95%
Dortmund 2%
Leverkusen 2%
Others 1%
Bayern 95%
Dortmund 2%
Leverkusen 2%
Others 1%
October 20, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Bundesliga: Bayern keeps adding marginal gains their huge title odds after winning Der Klassiker
Bayern 95%
Dortmund 2%
Leverkusen 2%
Others 1%
Bayern 95%
Dortmund 2%
Leverkusen 2%
Others 1%
Serie A: Inter now looking like solid favorites after their win at the Olimpico, and Napoli's loss to Torino
Inter 58%
Napoli 16%
Roma 11%
Milan 8%
Others 7%
Inter 58%
Napoli 16%
Roma 11%
Milan 8%
Others 7%
October 20, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Serie A: Inter now looking like solid favorites after their win at the Olimpico, and Napoli's loss to Torino
Inter 58%
Napoli 16%
Roma 11%
Milan 8%
Others 7%
Inter 58%
Napoli 16%
Roma 11%
Milan 8%
Others 7%
La Liga: The balance between Real Madrid and Barca remains:
Real Madrid 66%
Barcelona 32%
Atletico 2%
Real Madrid 66%
Barcelona 32%
Atletico 2%
October 20, 2025 at 2:25 PM
La Liga: The balance between Real Madrid and Barca remains:
Real Madrid 66%
Barcelona 32%
Atletico 2%
Real Madrid 66%
Barcelona 32%
Atletico 2%
Updates from this weekend play.
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
October 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Updates from this weekend play.
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
EPL: Another great week for Arsenal going from 54% to 64% of winning the title. Liverpool down to 20% with Man Citty still hopeful at 13%
Ligue 1: PSG still far from perfect in their start but still no signs of a true contender for this year
October 6, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Ligue 1: PSG still far from perfect in their start but still no signs of a true contender for this year
Bundesliga: Bayern comfortably clearing the path to yet another title with Dortmund dropping points at home
October 6, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Bundesliga: Bayern comfortably clearing the path to yet another title with Dortmund dropping points at home
Serie A: No big surprises to alter the odds significantly. An interesting Roma-Inter coming up next that could put the giallorossi in contention
October 6, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Serie A: No big surprises to alter the odds significantly. An interesting Roma-Inter coming up next that could put the giallorossi in contention
La Liga: A tough week for Barca where the power has shifted. Real Madrid now at 63% to win the title. DEspite both teams being far from perfect, still no real menace of a third team that could upset
October 6, 2025 at 3:46 PM
La Liga: A tough week for Barca where the power has shifted. Real Madrid now at 63% to win the title. DEspite both teams being far from perfect, still no real menace of a third team that could upset
Some updates going into the FIFA break
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
October 6, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Some updates going into the FIFA break
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
EPL: Arsenal now slight favourite after Liverpool loss at Chelsea. Arsenal now at 54% after being only at 26% two weeks ago. Man City still with a shot at 12%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 2:
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
October 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 2:
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Arsenal 21%
PSG 16%
Liverpool 14%
Bayern 9%
Man City 9%
Barcelona 8%
Inter 7%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Inter now slightly ahead of Napoli. In addition to their win over Sassuolo, some Elo ratings adjustments in their favour after the Champions League matchday 1
September 22, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Inter now slightly ahead of Napoli. In addition to their win over Sassuolo, some Elo ratings adjustments in their favour after the Champions League matchday 1
Some interesting updates from the weekend games.
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
September 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Some interesting updates from the weekend games.
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Liverpool keep distancing themselves in the EPL after the Arsenal-City draw. Liverpool up from 60% to 68%, Arsenal down from 32% to 26%
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 1:
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
September 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Updated Champions League odds after Matchday 1:
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
Liverpool 20%
Arsenal 19%
PSG 12%
Barcelona 10%
Man City 8%
Real Madrid 8%
Bayern 7%
Inter 5%
Chelsea 4%
After refreshing my models, I was only really interested in looking at Serie A to see the movement after Juve's win over Inter. Napoli are now slightly favoured, but model still bullish on Inter. Roughly 1/3 for Napoli, 1/3 for Inter, 1/6 for Juve and 1/6 for 3 clubs
September 16, 2025 at 4:13 AM
After refreshing my models, I was only really interested in looking at Serie A to see the movement after Juve's win over Inter. Napoli are now slightly favoured, but model still bullish on Inter. Roughly 1/3 for Napoli, 1/3 for Inter, 1/6 for Juve and 1/6 for 3 clubs