Pierre Lestru
oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Pierre Lestru
@oddsinshadow.bsky.social
Sports and data nerd, I publish forecasting sports probabilities. Check them out at oddsinshadow.com oddsinshadow.substack.com
📊 UCL Final Matchday - Top 8 Odds

14 teams battling to enter the Round of 16

Liverpool — 96%
Real Madrid — 85%
Barcelona — 80%
Man City — 60%
Paris SG — 57%
Tottenham — 50%
Atlético Madrid — 49%
Chelsea — 37%
Sporting CP — 34%
Newcastle — 23%
Atalanta — 16%
Inter — 7%
Juventus — 6%
Dortmund — 1%
January 28, 2026 at 2:30 PM
📊 UCL Final Matchday - KO Qualification Odds

14 teams battling for the final 6 spots

Marseille — 95%
Leverkusen — 93%
Monaco — 75%
PSV — 60%
Athletic Club — 55%
Olympiacos — 55%
Napoli — 51%
Club Brugge — 37%
Benfica — 25%
Pafos FC — 16%
Bodø/Glimt — 12%
FC Copenhagen — 10%
Ajax — 9%
Union SG — 7%
January 28, 2026 at 2:02 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (after week of Jan 25)

Up 📈:
Real Madrid: 35% → 41%
Inter: 78% → 83%
Aston Villa: 2% → 6%
Manchester City: 3% → 8%
Paris Saint-Germain: 91% → 95%

Down 📉:
Arsenal: 95% → 86%
Barcelona: 64% → 57%
Lens: 8% → 4%
Napoli: 6% → 3%
January 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds

Paris Saint-Germain — 95%
Lens — 4%
Marseille — 1%
January 27, 2026 at 4:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds

Inter — 83%
Milan — 10%
Napoli — 3%
Roma — 2%
Juventus — 2%
January 27, 2026 at 4:00 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds

Barcelona — 57%
Real Madrid — 41%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
January 27, 2026 at 3:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds

Arsenal — 86%
Manchester City — 8%
Aston Villa — 6%
January 27, 2026 at 3:07 PM
📊 Europa League Knockout Qualification Movers

Up 📈:
Dinamo Zagreb: 58% → 100%
Brann: 78% → 94%
Celtic: 55% → 71%
Feyenoord: 4% → 13%
PAOK: 95% → 100%

Down 📉:
Basel: 48% → 27%
Ludogorets: 52% → 33%
FCSB: 26% → 8%
Young Boys: 64% → 49%
Go Ahead Eagles: 18% → 5%
January 23, 2026 at 3:30 PM
📊 Europa League — Knockout Qualification Odds

Here are the teams battling to reach the knockout stage 👇

Lille — 99%
Brann — 94%
Celtic — 71%
Young Boys — 49%
Ludogorets — 33%
Basel — 27%
Feyenoord — 13%
FCSB — 8%
Go Ahead Eagles — 5%
RB Salzburg — 2%
January 23, 2026 at 3:01 PM
📊 Europa League Top 8 Odds Movers

Up 📈:
Braga: 49% → 95%
Roma: 44% → 83%
Genk: 5% → 35%
Freiburg: 83% → 99%
Red Star: 2% → 10%

Down 📉:
Bologna: 37% → 5%
Nottingham Forest: 30% → 0%
Stuttgart: 42% → 15%
Real Betis: 82% → 59%
Ferencváros: 45% → 24%
January 23, 2026 at 2:30 PM
📊 Europa League — Top 8 Odds

Here are the teams battling to reach the top 8 👇

Aston Villa — 100%
Lyon — 100%
Midtjylland — 100%
Freiburg — 99%
Braga — 95%
Roma — 83%
Porto — 69%
Real Betis — 59%
Genk — 35%
Ferencváros — 24%
Stuttgart — 15%
Red Star — 10%
Bologna — 5%
Celta Vigo — 5%
PAOK — 3%
January 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM
📊 Europa League Title Race Odds Movers

Up 📈:
Roma: 12% → 14%
Aston Villa: 39% → 41%

Down 📉:
Real Betis: 8% → 5%
Nottingham Forest: 7% → 5%
January 23, 2026 at 1:30 PM
🏆 UEFA Europa League title odds (after Matchday 7)

Aston Villa — 41%
Roma — 14%
Porto — 8%
Lyon — 6%
Real Betis — 5%
Nottingham Forest — 5%
Stuttgart — 4%
Freiburg — 3%
Celta Vigo — 2%
Bologna — 2%
January 23, 2026 at 1:06 PM
📊 Champions League Knockout Qualification Odds Movers

Up 📈:
Qarabağ: 37% → 100%
Athletic Club: 19% → 56%
Olympiacos: 22% → 54%
Bodø/Glimt: 1% → 12%
Club Brugge: 29% → 39%

Down 📉:
PSV: 87% → 59%
Benfica: 52% → 25%
Napoli: 76% → 53%
Monaco: 94% → 75%
FC Copenhagen: 29% → 10%
January 22, 2026 at 5:01 PM
📊 Champions League — Knockout Qualification Odds

With one match left, here are the teams battling to reach the knockout stage 👇

Monaco — 75%
PSV — 59%
Athletic Club — 56%
Olympiacos — 54%
Napoli — 53%
Club Brugge — 39%
Benfica — 25%
Pafos FC — 15%
Bodø/Glimt — 12%
FC Copenhagen — 10%
Ajax — 9%
January 22, 2026 at 4:30 PM
📊 Champions League Top 8 Odds Movers

Up 📈:
Barcelona: 39% → 80%
Liverpool: 67% → 96%
Tottenham Hotspur: 21% → 48%
Sporting CP: 9% → 33%
Real Madrid: 64% → 86%

Down 📉:
Atalanta: 66% → 17%
Inter: 41% → 8%
Manchester City: 89% → 61%
Paris Saint-Germain: 79% → 57%
Dortmund: 23% → 1%
January 22, 2026 at 4:00 PM
📊 Champions League — Top 8 Odds

Here are the teams battling to reach the top 8 👇

Real Madrid — 86%
Barcelona — 80%
Manchester City — 61%
Paris Saint-Germain — 57%
Atlético Madrid — 50%
Tottenham Hotspur — 48%
Chelsea — 35%
Sporting CP — 33%
Newcastle United — 24%
Atalanta — 17%
Inter — 8%
January 22, 2026 at 3:30 PM
📊 Champions League Title Race Odds Movers (after Matchday 7)

Up 📈:
Arsenal: 29% → 34%
Liverpool: 6% → 8%
Barcelona: 5% → 7%

Down 📉:
Paris Saint-Germain: 11% → 8%
Manchester City: 11% → 7%
Bayern Munich: 19% → 17%
Inter: 4% → 3%
January 22, 2026 at 3:00 PM
🏆 UEFA Champions League title odds

Arsenal — 34%
Bayern Munich — 17%
Liverpool — 8%
Paris Saint-Germain — 8%
Manchester City — 7%
Barcelona — 7%
Real Madrid — 5%
Inter — 3%
Chelsea — 3%
Newcastle United — 2%
January 22, 2026 at 2:30 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (after week of Jan 18)

Up 📈:
Real Madrid: 20% → 35%
Inter: 77% → 81%
Milan: 7% → 11%
Arsenal: 90% → 93%
Atlético Madrid: 1% → 2%

Down 📉:
Barcelona: 79% → 63%
Napoli: 11% → 5%
Juventus: 3% → 0%
Manchester City: 7% → 5%
January 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM
🏆 Ligue 1 (France) title odds

Paris Saint-Germain — 92%
Lens — 8%
January 20, 2026 at 4:30 PM
🏆 Serie A (Italy) title odds

Inter — 81%
Milan — 11%
Napoli — 5%
Roma — 3%
January 20, 2026 at 4:01 PM
🏆 La Liga (Spain) title odds

Barcelona — 63%
Real Madrid — 35%
Atlético Madrid — 2%
January 20, 2026 at 3:30 PM
🏆 Premier League (England) title odds

Arsenal — 93%
Manchester City — 5%
Aston Villa — 2%
January 20, 2026 at 3:03 PM
📊 Europe's Big 5 Title Race Odds Movers (only Serie A had serious action this weekend)

Up 📈:
Napoli: 9% → 11%
Roma: 1% → 3%
Juventus: 1% → 3%

Down 📉:
Inter: 80% → 77%
Milan: 8% → 7%
January 13, 2026 at 5:30 PM