Tom Edwards
@notionalgrid.bsky.social
Modeller at Cornwall Insight, all views are my own and do not reflect the position of the BSC panel.
If you want to give a battery developer nightmares, show them the CBA for P462. The modification proposes to remove subsidy costs from the BM, reducing the number of negative prices in cash-out and feeding through into whoelsale markets. The initial CBA results show a near 60% reduction in revenues!
November 13, 2025 at 1:16 PM
If you want to give a battery developer nightmares, show them the CBA for P462. The modification proposes to remove subsidy costs from the BM, reducing the number of negative prices in cash-out and feeding through into whoelsale markets. The initial CBA results show a near 60% reduction in revenues!
I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now
October 22, 2025 at 2:58 PM
I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now
You'll need a BEGA
In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand
I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.
I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.
October 13, 2025 at 9:37 AM
You'll need a BEGA
Unlikely any new CCGTs can be built before 2030, so its a lifeline for aging gas plant, or they build much less efficient OCGTs or Recips.
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
Nvidia says Britain will have to burn gas to power technology revolution
The company chief executive Jensen Huang says the UK’s costly electricity means new data centres will rely on fossil fuel as well as renewable energy
www.thetimes.com
September 18, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Unlikely any new CCGTs can be built before 2030, so its a lifeline for aging gas plant, or they build much less efficient OCGTs or Recips.
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
www.thetimes.com/uk/technolog...
This will have no impact on AR7 : a) unlikely these companies will rise to the bait b) they are protected by CiL provisions in the CfD contract which is a private law contract between the state and the developer c) ISDS are a nasty thing to get on the wrong side of
UK green energy groups warned they would lose subsidies under a Reform government
Deputy leader Richard Tice says rightwing populist party will reassess ‘all net zero commitments’ due to high costs
www.ft.com
July 17, 2025 at 6:42 AM
This will have no impact on AR7 : a) unlikely these companies will rise to the bait b) they are protected by CiL provisions in the CfD contract which is a private law contract between the state and the developer c) ISDS are a nasty thing to get on the wrong side of
The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).
July 15, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).
Im assuming this is the REMA zonal decision - no zonal, reforming TNUoS but maintaining focus on predicatability and a more efficient balancing system
July 10, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Im assuming this is the REMA zonal decision - no zonal, reforming TNUoS but maintaining focus on predicatability and a more efficient balancing system
Even if, as widely reported, zonal has been ruled out of REMA its very likely to come back again (perhaps even as LMP next time). Even with planned investment in network, constraint costs are likely to increase, so locational pricing will return to the agenda in the 2030's (you heard it here first)
July 9, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Even if, as widely reported, zonal has been ruled out of REMA its very likely to come back again (perhaps even as LMP next time). Even with planned investment in network, constraint costs are likely to increase, so locational pricing will return to the agenda in the 2030's (you heard it here first)
Statement from UK energy minister that they will not be offering a bespoke CfD to the Xlinks Morrocco> SW England project questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
Written statements - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament
Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.
questions-statements.parliament.uk
June 26, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Statement from UK energy minister that they will not be offering a bespoke CfD to the Xlinks Morrocco> SW England project questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
What even is ministerial authority? What have we been doing for the last three years?
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Starmer intervenes over plans for higher energy bills in the South
No10 demands review of costs and benefits of ‘zonal pricing’, raising prospects that it could be axed
www.telegraph.co.uk
June 6, 2025 at 8:45 AM
What even is ministerial authority? What have we been doing for the last three years?
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Bless the Machine Once, as the holy currents flow! Bless the machine twice as the optimisation is performed! User beware, the Final Physical Notification is sacrosanct and must not be altered after the annoitned hour...
May 15, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Bless the Machine Once, as the holy currents flow! Bless the machine twice as the optimisation is performed! User beware, the Final Physical Notification is sacrosanct and must not be altered after the annoitned hour...
We've done an office refresh and to celebrate I thought I would do some modelling* to spice up the decoration
May 9, 2025 at 8:02 AM
We've done an office refresh and to celebrate I thought I would do some modelling* to spice up the decoration
With the rumour mill working overtime and expectations that REMA decisions could drop in the near future, why not check out our Insight Paper: Revolution Takes Time: Implementing Zonal Power Pricing in GB, which analyses past power market reforms to consider how long it will take to implement REMA
Revolution Takes Time: Implementing Zonal Power Pricing in GB | Cornwall Insight
We explore the practical challenges and potential timelines if zonal pricing is adopted, drawing on Cornwall Insight’s new Zonal GB Benchmark Power Curve, the paper examines the complexity of the ref...
www.cornwall-insight.com
May 8, 2025 at 8:49 AM
With the rumour mill working overtime and expectations that REMA decisions could drop in the near future, why not check out our Insight Paper: Revolution Takes Time: Implementing Zonal Power Pricing in GB, which analyses past power market reforms to consider how long it will take to implement REMA
New CfD Budget mechanism will mean parties can't see budget before hand, only a govt. capacity ambition. They will only see the budget after the allocaiton. Meanwhile SoS gets powers to see auction data and decide budget to meet value for money requirements.
May 6, 2025 at 2:29 PM
New CfD Budget mechanism will mean parties can't see budget before hand, only a govt. capacity ambition. They will only see the budget after the allocaiton. Meanwhile SoS gets powers to see auction data and decide budget to meet value for money requirements.
So far this year 483MW has terminated its CfD agreement, including 382MW of onshore wind and 100MW of solar pv. All of the Solar PV was supposed to connect this year and the wind was due for 2026, 2028 and 2031
April 8, 2025 at 10:31 AM
So far this year 483MW has terminated its CfD agreement, including 382MW of onshore wind and 100MW of solar pv. All of the Solar PV was supposed to connect this year and the wind was due for 2026, 2028 and 2031
Great LCCC re-brand work here - nothing screams experts in renewables more than office workers sitting ankle deepin the surf watching wind turbines with only two blades
April 3, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Great LCCC re-brand work here - nothing screams experts in renewables more than office workers sitting ankle deepin the surf watching wind turbines with only two blades
DESNZ confirms final Auciton volumes for T-1 (2025) and T-4 CM (2028) auctions - a total 0.3GW reduction for T-4 as 1.9GW under delivery is offset by 2.2GW additional from newly signed Drax CfD
February 11, 2025 at 10:46 AM
DESNZ confirms final Auciton volumes for T-1 (2025) and T-4 CM (2028) auctions - a total 0.3GW reduction for T-4 as 1.9GW under delivery is offset by 2.2GW additional from newly signed Drax CfD
Drax is being given a new CfD agreement for its post ROC units from 2027 - the interesting thing is that it has some new mechanisms for the CfD, generation caps and collars and windfall mechanisms
February 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Drax is being given a new CfD agreement for its post ROC units from 2027 - the interesting thing is that it has some new mechanisms for the CfD, generation caps and collars and windfall mechanisms
Interesting, the 2nd Unit at Eggborough new build CCGT has had its CM agreement terminated, that was 850MW with 776MW at £63/KW for 15 years, probably the best result they could have hoped for
January 28, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Interesting, the 2nd Unit at Eggborough new build CCGT has had its CM agreement terminated, that was 850MW with 776MW at £63/KW for 15 years, probably the best result they could have hoped for
I have been on my jollies recently so its time for a game of Guess that Power Station! The second photo should give some clue as to the location of this 2.4GW CCGT
January 27, 2025 at 10:19 AM
I have been on my jollies recently so its time for a game of Guess that Power Station! The second photo should give some clue as to the location of this 2.4GW CCGT
Do you want to know what I think is the most interesting thing about yesterdays tight period? Have a look at the batteries ("Other" on the BMRS mostly) - they were on over the peak, but they weren't being called in the Balancing Mechanism
January 9, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Do you want to know what I think is the most interesting thing about yesterdays tight period? Have a look at the batteries ("Other" on the BMRS mostly) - they were on over the peak, but they weren't being called in the Balancing Mechanism
Looks like the margin improved from when I last posted 509MW> 1003MW
January 8, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Looks like the margin improved from when I last posted 509MW> 1003MW
Now there is a Capacity Market Notice
January 8, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Now there is a Capacity Market Notice
NESO has issued a Electricity Margin Notice this morning for the darkness peak this evening - insufficient operating margin is forecast given the tight operating conditions for the evening
January 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
NESO has issued a Electricity Margin Notice this morning for the darkness peak this evening - insufficient operating margin is forecast given the tight operating conditions for the evening