Tom Edwards
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notionalgrid.bsky.social
Tom Edwards
@notionalgrid.bsky.social
Modeller at Cornwall Insight, all views are my own and do not reflect the position of the BSC panel.
It just shifts costs from one area to another, customers will be only marginally better off, while diluting the cashout signal which means less DSR, less storage, so ultimately consumers will suffer from higher prices driven by keeping gas on the system.
November 14, 2025 at 8:53 AM
No one tell them how much the cost of gas turbines has gone up...I reckon they're up about £35/MWh on an LCOE basis on a couple of years ago. That would put them on a par with new build offshore wind now even without the Carbon.
October 8, 2025 at 12:59 PM
If its trained on todays dispatch decision making how will it be any better? participants want a neutral optimal decisions making tool, probably not going to be an LLM.
September 18, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Cost of new gas generators has been going up, so its not clear this is a cost effective option, compared to picking another market to build your LLM abacus in.
September 18, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Removing the ETS will increase CfD prices as well by impacting the merchant tail.
September 5, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Read it now! How much of the saving was from removing UK ETS and CPS vs. redispatch of IC/gas plant?
September 5, 2025 at 10:15 AM
I probably need to read the paper! Sounds like a traders dream though, buy sell power to NESO when they dispatch gas and then buy it from ZMC at lower cost?
September 4, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Are ICs buying power at the NESO gas market stage or the post gas ZMC market? Both, I Guess?
September 4, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Does the CfD reference price change, without a fuelled gen in the merit order the CfD would default to no payments most of the time?
September 4, 2025 at 12:57 PM
IMO fixing the dispatch issues with the BM and using batteries better erodes the capability of CCGTs to dictate prices at the margin, and what about the smaller plant like Recips, surely they just see the CCGTs bidding at SRMC and become the new marginal plant?
September 4, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Gas plant is very competetive, their margins aren't enormous, will the government be running these gas plant without any margins to pay for network charges or rent?
September 4, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Sorry, gas would be 15% of the generation mix, but it would be running 57% of the time. So how is this a reserve? These reserve plants would still need to recover costs, how does this break the link to gas prices? The only way to break that link is to replace gas.
September 4, 2025 at 7:50 AM
But we would still need the gas plant to run 15% of the time by 2028 its hardly a reserve. What about the reciprocating engines, should they also be nationalised? Who buys the gas?
September 4, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Just waiting for the inevitable article on the perfidious injustice of Mandatory Half Hourly Settlement.
July 16, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Here is the consutlation response document assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687654...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
July 15, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Not sure how to balance TNUoS reform, its already got a wide locational signal, but making it more predictable & sending a higher locational signal work at cross purposes. The DC model is sensitive to capacity changes, so presumably bin that? But then how do you objectively set the locaitonal signal
July 10, 2025 at 7:08 AM