Tom Edwards
@notionalgrid.bsky.social
Modeller at Cornwall Insight, all views are my own and do not reflect the position of the BSC panel.
I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now
October 22, 2025 at 2:58 PM
I dont feel so bad about running my 1060 now
The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).
July 15, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The government now intends to offer 20 years CfDs to Offshore and Onshore wind, and Solar PV. Key impacts here are lowering the overall CfD price by spreading the support out longer and reducing the merchant tail risk (esp. important following REMA).
Bless the Machine Once, as the holy currents flow! Bless the machine twice as the optimisation is performed! User beware, the Final Physical Notification is sacrosanct and must not be altered after the annoitned hour...
May 15, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Bless the Machine Once, as the holy currents flow! Bless the machine twice as the optimisation is performed! User beware, the Final Physical Notification is sacrosanct and must not be altered after the annoitned hour...
We've done an office refresh and to celebrate I thought I would do some modelling* to spice up the decoration
May 9, 2025 at 8:02 AM
We've done an office refresh and to celebrate I thought I would do some modelling* to spice up the decoration
So far this year 483MW has terminated its CfD agreement, including 382MW of onshore wind and 100MW of solar pv. All of the Solar PV was supposed to connect this year and the wind was due for 2026, 2028 and 2031
April 8, 2025 at 10:31 AM
So far this year 483MW has terminated its CfD agreement, including 382MW of onshore wind and 100MW of solar pv. All of the Solar PV was supposed to connect this year and the wind was due for 2026, 2028 and 2031
This solar site is great, no notes.
April 3, 2025 at 8:27 AM
This solar site is great, no notes.
This lady, compeletly unperturbed by the weird meteorlogical conditions that has the strucrutrally unsound turbines all pointing in different directions
April 3, 2025 at 8:26 AM
This lady, compeletly unperturbed by the weird meteorlogical conditions that has the strucrutrally unsound turbines all pointing in different directions
Great LCCC re-brand work here - nothing screams experts in renewables more than office workers sitting ankle deepin the surf watching wind turbines with only two blades
April 3, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Great LCCC re-brand work here - nothing screams experts in renewables more than office workers sitting ankle deepin the surf watching wind turbines with only two blades
This is probably fine, as the 1.9GW will have included the termination of Eggborough and it was assumed the Drax biomass units would be in the CM from 2028-29
February 11, 2025 at 11:01 AM
This is probably fine, as the 1.9GW will have included the termination of Eggborough and it was assumed the Drax biomass units would be in the CM from 2028-29
DESNZ confirms final Auciton volumes for T-1 (2025) and T-4 CM (2028) auctions - a total 0.3GW reduction for T-4 as 1.9GW under delivery is offset by 2.2GW additional from newly signed Drax CfD
February 11, 2025 at 10:46 AM
DESNZ confirms final Auciton volumes for T-1 (2025) and T-4 CM (2028) auctions - a total 0.3GW reduction for T-4 as 1.9GW under delivery is offset by 2.2GW additional from newly signed Drax CfD
£113/MWh strike price is around £156/MWh in 2024-25 prices, keen to know what the reference price is for the units, day-ahead like the RES or still the baseload reference?
February 10, 2025 at 9:40 AM
£113/MWh strike price is around £156/MWh in 2024-25 prices, keen to know what the reference price is for the units, day-ahead like the RES or still the baseload reference?
I have been on my jollies recently so its time for a game of Guess that Power Station! The second photo should give some clue as to the location of this 2.4GW CCGT
January 27, 2025 at 10:19 AM
I have been on my jollies recently so its time for a game of Guess that Power Station! The second photo should give some clue as to the location of this 2.4GW CCGT
If we look a the Buy Stack for period 35 (17.00) then its all gas plant, so where were the batteries? They had mostly traded in the wholesale markets according to BESS analytics the average battery was making £220/kW in the wholesale market but only £6.5/kW in the BM
January 9, 2025 at 9:24 AM
If we look a the Buy Stack for period 35 (17.00) then its all gas plant, so where were the batteries? They had mostly traded in the wholesale markets according to BESS analytics the average battery was making £220/kW in the wholesale market but only £6.5/kW in the BM
Do you want to know what I think is the most interesting thing about yesterdays tight period? Have a look at the batteries ("Other" on the BMRS mostly) - they were on over the peak, but they weren't being called in the Balancing Mechanism
January 9, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Do you want to know what I think is the most interesting thing about yesterdays tight period? Have a look at the batteries ("Other" on the BMRS mostly) - they were on over the peak, but they weren't being called in the Balancing Mechanism
Oh, but the system price! yes what a time to go chasing the NIV
January 8, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Oh, but the system price! yes what a time to go chasing the NIV
Looks like the margin improved from when I last posted 509MW> 1003MW
January 8, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Looks like the margin improved from when I last posted 509MW> 1003MW
Now there is a Capacity Market Notice
January 8, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Now there is a Capacity Market Notice
Prices at the Nordpool day-ahead auction were above £180/MWh from midday and £350/MWh between 18.00 and 19.00
January 8, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Prices at the Nordpool day-ahead auction were above £180/MWh from midday and £350/MWh between 18.00 and 19.00
NESO has issued a Electricity Margin Notice this morning for the darkness peak this evening - insufficient operating margin is forecast given the tight operating conditions for the evening
January 8, 2025 at 11:05 AM
NESO has issued a Electricity Margin Notice this morning for the darkness peak this evening - insufficient operating margin is forecast given the tight operating conditions for the evening
NESO trades made the flow into GB 463MW to 516MW higher than the initial outcome from auctions. For IFA 1 (2GW to FR) the de-rating factor for volumes at peak times (average volumes between 5-6pm divided by capacity) was 4.9% lower before trades, for Britned (1GW NL) it was 6.5% lower in 2024
December 31, 2024 at 1:04 PM
NESO trades made the flow into GB 463MW to 516MW higher than the initial outcome from auctions. For IFA 1 (2GW to FR) the de-rating factor for volumes at peak times (average volumes between 5-6pm divided by capacity) was 4.9% lower before trades, for Britned (1GW NL) it was 6.5% lower in 2024
This chart shows the average hourly flow across all the interconnectors in November 2024, the final volume is the final Metered Volume across the interconnectors including trades and the initial volume is the final volume minus the traded volume
December 31, 2024 at 1:04 PM
This chart shows the average hourly flow across all the interconnectors in November 2024, the final volume is the final Metered Volume across the interconnectors including trades and the initial volume is the final volume minus the traded volume
Using the IC trading data from the NESO portal as well as the IC flow data from the Insights platform we can see what a difference this NESO trading makes
December 31, 2024 at 1:04 PM
Using the IC trading data from the NESO portal as well as the IC flow data from the Insights platform we can see what a difference this NESO trading makes
One of the big unanswered questions of REMA is how it interacts with the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan - no real answer here though.
December 13, 2024 at 11:08 AM
One of the big unanswered questions of REMA is how it interacts with the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan - no real answer here though.
No decision on zonal vs. national pricing and both are under equal consideration. A decision will be taken on this by mid-2025, before a CfD AR7 auction round takes place - any existing or AR7 contracts would be insulated from any impact of zonal pricing
December 13, 2024 at 10:55 AM
No decision on zonal vs. national pricing and both are under equal consideration. A decision will be taken on this by mid-2025, before a CfD AR7 auction round takes place - any existing or AR7 contracts would be insulated from any impact of zonal pricing
"For too long, there has been no plan for building new energy infrastructure based on an assessment of what the country actually needs..." and this isn't one either...
December 13, 2024 at 9:01 AM
"For too long, there has been no plan for building new energy infrastructure based on an assessment of what the country actually needs..." and this isn't one either...