Nicolas Tenzer
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nicolastenzer.bsky.social
Nicolas Tenzer
@nicolastenzer.bsky.social
Guest Prof Sc Po, Sr Fellow CEPA, Chair CERAP, Sr civil servant
Blogger IR https://tenzerstrategics.substack.com/
Derniers livres : Fin de la politique des grandes puissances, Notre Guerre Ed. l'Observatoire
#HumanRights #InternationalAffairs #SlavaUkraini
Pinned
Célébration quelque peu personnelle (encore que non) : cela fait jour pour jour un an que #NotreGuerre est paru.
Célébration aussi, malgré tout, quelque peu amère et même empreinte d'une certaine colère.
Motifs de satisfaction et aussi (le mot est faible) d'insatisfaction.
Un rapide fil.
1
Dans trois jours, le 10 janvier, il sera à vous si vous le souhaitez.
Notre Guerre. Le Crime et l'Oubli.
Il peut déjà être commandé dans votre librairie et sur les sites en ligne, notamment ici www.amazon.fr/Notre-guerre... (pour éviter les risques de rupture momentanée de stocks avant réassort).
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
N. Tenzer: "Als Europese leiders nog een greintje waardigheid hebben, maar vooral een gevoel van verantwoordelijkheid, moeten ze laten zien dat ze 'nee' kunnen zeggen. Anders verliezen ze hun levensverzekering en belanden ze in een donkere periode waarin ze deze keer voorgoed verloren kunnen zijn."
Beyond Trump’s “Russian Plan”: There Will Be No Peace Agreement With Moscow
This Is Not Actually Bad News
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 10:25 PM
In this 155th long read on my foreign affairs and strategic blog, I argue that there will ultimately be no peace deal with Russia.
I explain why this is not bad news—quite the contrary.
The “Russian plan” would be a deadly threat to Ukraine and Europe.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/beyond-tru...
Beyond Trump’s “Russian Plan”: There Will Be No Peace Agreement With Moscow
This Is Not Actually Bad News
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
please everyone, sign this petition asking to use the russian assets for Ukraine
🇺🇦 Europe has €200 billion in frozen Russian assets. Using them as a guarantee for a €140 billion loan to Ukraine isn't charity—it's justice. Make Russia pay for its own war, not European taxpayers. Sign and share: c.org/b59FVxYkGR #MakeRussiaPay #StandWithUkraine
Cette campagne a besoin de vous
140 milliards pour l'Ukraine garantis par les avoirs russes: l'Europe doit agir maintenant
c.org
November 30, 2025 at 9:18 PM
15 days after his previous visit, Pres. Zelenskyy will travel to Paris on Monday.
Essential to torpedo Trump's Russian plan: nothing is negotiable with Russia.
The future of Ukraine and the security of Europe depend on our ability to say “no” and to act accordingly.
www.leparisien.fr/internationa...
Guerre en Ukraine : Emmanuel Macron recevra Volodymyr Zelensky ce lundi à Paris
Emmanuel Macron recevra son homologue ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky lundi 1er décembre à Paris, selon l’Élysée. Le ministre ukrainien des Aff
www.leparisien.fr
November 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
No, a lot of lawyers argue that it is not illegal. What is illegal is the Russian agression against Ukraine. See for exmple : www.pourlukraine.com/en/post/la-c...
The confiscation of Russian public assets, a legitimate request by Ukraine to compensate for its war damage
La France doit coopérer à la demande de l'Ukraine de confisquer les avoirs publics russes pour réparer ses dommages de guerre
www.pourlukraine.com
November 29, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
De Wever, who likes to claim he's an historian, is clearly not having the correct reading on the current geopolitical situation nor on which side the USA are supporting now.
The only way to have real peace is to defeat Russia economically, politically and militarily. There is no peace deal ahead.
No, Mr. Bart DeWever, this is nothing but a Russian narrative.
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
Belgium says using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal
Prime Minister Bart De Wever sets out conditions that would resolve his objections to a proposed €140bn EU loan to Kyiv
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:42 PM
No, Mr. Bart DeWever, this is nothing but a Russian narrative.
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
Belgium says using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal
Prime Minister Bart De Wever sets out conditions that would resolve his objections to a proposed €140bn EU loan to Kyiv
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Enfin !
Mais je reste pour le moins surpris (understatement) que ceci n'ait pas été réalisé avant.

The Commission is preparing to place Russia on the gray list of countries at high risk of money laundering.
Good, but it's incredible that this wasn't decided earlier.
www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...
La Russie sur le point d’être fichée sur la liste grise européenne des pays à haut risque de blanchiment
Longtemps réticente, la Commission européenne s’apprête à ficher la Russie en raison de ses défaillances manifestes en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment.
www.lemonde.fr
November 28, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Polish cartoonist Andrzej Rysuje nails it.
November 27, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Witkoff: "The Russian Federation has always wanted peace."

"Auferre, trucidare, rapere falsis nominibus imperium, atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant," Tacitus, Agricola.
"To plunder, butcher, steal, these things they misname empire: they make a desert and they call it peace."
November 27, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
En 7 minutes, Nicolas Tenzer résume ici remarquablement la situation, les enjeux et les positions des uns et des autres.

J'ajoute, à propos de Trump, qu'il ne faut pas se bercer d'illusions et croire qu'il y aura un après-Trump et que cela ira mieux. Nous avons changé de monde. Il faut l'assumer.
J'ai eu le plaisir ce matin à 7 heures 18 d'être interrogé par Laure Closier sur @bfmbusiness.bsky.social.
Voici le replay : j'y ai défendu notamment la thèse que, à la fin des fins, il n'y aura pas de plan de paix - ce n'est pas nécessairement une mauvaise nouvelle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLk_...
Guerre en Ukraine : "Trump se moque complètement du sort de l'Ukraine" (Nicolas Tenzer)
YouTube video by BFM Business
www.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:34 AM
J'ai eu le plaisir ce matin à 7 heures 18 d'être interrogé par Laure Closier sur @bfmbusiness.bsky.social.
Voici le replay : j'y ai défendu notamment la thèse que, à la fin des fins, il n'y aura pas de plan de paix - ce n'est pas nécessairement une mauvaise nouvelle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLk_...
Guerre en Ukraine : "Trump se moque complètement du sort de l'Ukraine" (Nicolas Tenzer)
YouTube video by BFM Business
www.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
"Cette illusion de la paix renforce la corruption des esprits à travers ce que j'ai appelé la propagande douce. En alléguant qu'on peut signer un accord avec la Russie, on réduit des crimes de masse à une anecdote de l'Histoire."
@nicolastenzer.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/tenzerst...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
open.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Merci à @paulinepaccard.bsky.social de nous avoir invités ce matin sur @france24.com, Cyrille Bret, Paul Daroux et moi pour entrer dans le détail (territoires occupés, garanties de sécurité, etc.) du prétendu plan de paix... russe.
Une conversation sans détour.
www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9mis...
Parlons-en, les invités - Ukraine : des "points de désaccord" ? Parlons-en avec C. Bret, N. Tenzer et B. Daroux
À en croire Donald Trump, il ne reste que "quelques points de désaccord" à régler pour trouver une issue à la guerre en Ukraine. "Parlons-en" s'intéresse aujourd'hui à ces fameux "points de désaccord"...
www.france24.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
"Même si intimement les leaders UE n'y croient pas, maintenir un discours diplomatique qui prétend qu'un accord avec la Russie est possible a des conséquences dans le monde réel. Il empêche l'opinion de percevoir les dangers mortels posés par la Russie."
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/have-europ...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
"we must always return to Putin’s intentions: the subjugation of the Ukrainian people, their enslavement, and their physical and moral destruction. Summary executions, systematic torture, mass rape, and the deportation of Ukrainian children, not to mention the destruction of Ukraine’s
In this 154th long read on my strategy blog, I revisit some fundamental realities of Russia's war against Ukraine that continue to be misunderstood by many leaders.
There's an urgent need to set the basic narratives straight & demonstrate intentionality.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/have-europ...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Imagine if an advisor to the French president, the British prime minister, or the German chancellor had had such a conversation with a Russian official.
He would have been fired, probably arrested, and his behavior investigated by the domestic intelligence services...
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Leaked transcripts unveil Trump envoy's closeness to Russians: 'I have the utmost respect for President Putin'
Bloomberg has revealed conversations illustrating the close relationship between the Steve Witkoff and his contacts in Moscow.
www.lemonde.fr
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Excellent, blunt essay on the failure of Europe's leaders (except to delay things on behalf of Russia, U.S. no longer matters) to decisively aid Ukraine and a reminder of very deliberate war crimes committed by Russian forces and the Kremlin's objective to wipe Ukraine off the map.
In this 154th long read on my strategy blog, I revisit some fundamental realities of Russia's war against Ukraine that continue to be misunderstood by many leaders.
There's an urgent need to set the basic narratives straight & demonstrate intentionality.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/have-europ...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Quasiment 50 minutes d'échanges sur l'Ukraine ce matin sur @franceinfo.fr télévision dans l'émission "L'info s'éclaire" animée par l'excellent @axeldetarle.bsky.social.
Discussion très riche et convergente en compagnie de Patricia Allemonière et Jean-Mathieu Pernin.
www.franceinfo.fr/replay-magaz...
L'info s'éclaire du Mardi 25 novembre 2025
Voir ou revoir l'émission L'info s'éclaire du Mardi 25 novembre 2025. Du lundi au vendredi de 9h30 à 10h20, en direct, invités et experts décryptent l'actualité du jour dans l'émission ": l'info s'écl...
www.franceinfo.fr
November 25, 2025 at 3:55 PM
In this 154th long read on my strategy blog, I revisit some fundamental realities of Russia's war against Ukraine that continue to be misunderstood by many leaders.
There's an urgent need to set the basic narratives straight & demonstrate intentionality.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/have-europ...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:07 PM
At the end of the day, I would readily bet that there will be no peace plan—for one simple reason, which I have often emphasized: there cannot be one with Russia.
This is not actually bad news, however, but rather the opposite—at least if Europeans prove themselves equal to the historical task.
November 24, 2025 at 1:21 PM
We must win the war against Russia for the same reason that we had to win the war against the Axis powers eighty years ago.
In both cases, there could not, and cannot, be a half-victory. That would make no practical or concrete sense, given the nature and aims of the enemy.
Period.
November 23, 2025 at 6:31 PM
In this war, there can be neither compromise nor halfway solution.
There is a simple reason for this, which must be stated with the utmost force: it is a war of total annihilation on the part of russia and, even more so, for Ukraine, and therefore for us, it is a war against radical evil.
#OurWar
November 23, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Everything in Trump's russian plan —undoubtedly also a corruption pact—is disgraceful, rotten, and unacceptable.
But I would like European leaders to show much more indignation about one thing in particular: it absolves the russians of their crimes—a full betrayal of Nuremberg's legacy.
November 23, 2025 at 10:22 AM