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Nick Craw🇪🇺🇨🇦🇬🇱🇹🇭
@nickcraw.bsky.social
Single malt drinker
Agatha Christie head
Arsenal fan
Purveyor of general Englishness
King Rama VI reader
European federalism proponent
Displaced Inselaffe

(In that order)
Much less than that.

If you churn the numbers and there really is a 5 way split there are quite a few scenarios where 20-22% could give Labour a majority or near to one.
November 11, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I did the maths on this & its plausible Labour can win a majority with just 20% if there really is a 4-5 way split. Most others parties will need 25%, while Greens would need about 30% even if they come 1st..

You need to compare which parties are polling 1st or 2nd in as many seats as possible.
November 11, 2025 at 12:25 PM
I find this discussion about "What can we do Bond is dead!?" hilarious.

There has never been continuity in Bond, he'd also be roughly 100 years old now if there was.

Its really not like anyone never suspended belief for a James Bond film before.
November 11, 2025 at 11:27 AM
I think US & UK actually did have built in stability advantages over Europe due to old anglo-atlantic elites.
Ironic thing is what was once seen as weakness: the political collapse in WWII may have handed European advantages.
Europeans are use to rebuilding.
Do US & UK have the capacity to rebuild?
November 10, 2025 at 7:20 PM
BREAKING:

"Donald Trump threatens BBC with $1bn lawsuit as chair says speech edit was ‘error of judgment’ – latest updates"

www.theguardian.com/media/live/2...
Donald Trump threatens BBC with $1bn lawsuit as chair says speech edit was ‘error of judgment’ – latest updates
BBC chair Samir Shah apologises for way in which speech from US president was edited after corporation’s two most senior executives resign
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Wood can be more costly than people think with upkeep costs. China over production means solar panels can be bought very cheaply.

Problem I have with this is that solar pannels are now so cheap they are being used inefficiently as cold northern countries are overbuying c/with hotter countries.
November 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
0 to 60 in 7 seconds, handy around town and can park in the tightest of spaces.

What's not to like?
November 10, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Ive given up making predictions about UCL places for the moment.

Theres 1 point difference between 9th and 4th. Every team is both 2 weeks away from UCL and crisis....
November 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Put it this way:

Id rather we get a loss v Bayern & win over Spurs...than get a draw with Spurs to get a win v Bayern.

Spurs & Chelsea will be the main games that week so in a certain context we will inevitably have to rotate for Bayern.
November 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Man City have won their last 7 home games.

Once they scored their 1st it was always likely City would win.
Not really convinced City were better than Liverpool prior to Haaland scoring altho Doku did have a stormer.
November 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Both Arsenal & Bayern have atleast one home UCL against a minor team that even in the unlikely case they need it will be easy.

With 12 points each I suspect this will be a draw. Theres simply no need for either team to risk a defeat when only 16 points required with 3 games to play afterwards.
November 10, 2025 at 11:48 AM
My grandfather who served in Iraq during WWII would have hated this.

We always watched Rememberance Sunday on his TV. He was patriotic but considered such stuff for the Queen with politicians lined up in the background - not shooting videos of themselves looking like a latin american president.
November 10, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The whole BBC "scandal" is weird.

1. While its not a good idea to combine different speeches nobody is really saying that the BBC made stuff up, it just needed better editing

2. Tim Davie is not some leftie anti American hes basically been got rid of as a scarifice to Trump.
November 10, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Pulis was criticised because he sent his team out to injure people.

Nobody really minded Pulis football tactics that was up to Stoke.
November 10, 2025 at 10:49 AM
It might be good to know that:

1. Arsenal have scored precisely *ZERO* goals from long throw in this season
2. Arsenal dont really do long throws
3. Even when they do its mostly down the line when hoardings dont matter or whith short run ups

The whole story is based on click bait / lazy journalism
November 10, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Ive been banging on about this since BBC article came out.
1. Arsenal have scored precisely *zero* goals from long throws this season
2. We dont even do that many long throws - except when running down line to move ball forward

Its just really lazy journalism.

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...
Hoardings, showers & pink dressing rooms - the 'creative' ways clubs get an edge
After Sunderland moved advertising hoardings to stifle Arsenal's long throws, BBC Sport looks at some other creative ways teams have tried to gain an advantage.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 10:23 AM