Non-Correlating Stock Ideas
@ncsi.bsky.social
Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/non-correlating-stock-ideas
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Trend Change For Emerging Markets, Or Just Another Head Fake?
International equities show strong Point & Figure buy signals and significant valuation gaps vs. U.S. stocks. Click here for more information on Market Outlook.
seekingalpha.com
Just another missive I wrote about Domestic versus International equities. Some charts, some ratios, some fun. Enjoy.
seekingalpha.com/article/4824...
seekingalpha.com/article/4824...
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
December 9, 2025 at 2:18 PM
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀
$RHI has been starting to buck the inverse AI trade a bit. Showing signs of basing even on days like these when AI is strong. I think this use of EMA's is better for trades, but can still be useful to indicate a trend change might be underway. Waiting to see if the 8 can cross over the 21 day. 👀
December 2, 2025 at 9:50 PM
$RHI has been starting to buck the inverse AI trade a bit. Showing signs of basing even on days like these when AI is strong. I think this use of EMA's is better for trades, but can still be useful to indicate a trend change might be underway. Waiting to see if the 8 can cross over the 21 day. 👀
I agree, and the unexpected thing is how it hasn't impacted everything else. That's very rare. I would expect that to end once the calendar shifts but we'll see.
“Since late Oct the real story hasn’t been the S&P, it’s been the spike in factor volatility under the surface. 20-day factor volatility has now pushed above 20, while S&P vol has only drifted modestly higher. The stress is happening inside the market, not across it.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/807
December 2, 2025 at 3:28 PM
I agree, and the unexpected thing is how it hasn't impacted everything else. That's very rare. I would expect that to end once the calendar shifts but we'll see.
$PLTR eating into that resistance on the 2% box size P&F chart. AI making the end of year mark push.
December 2, 2025 at 3:20 PM
$PLTR eating into that resistance on the 2% box size P&F chart. AI making the end of year mark push.
P&F on the traditional 50 pt trend still has the 30Y $TYX pointing down, but we've moved back up to that breakdown point where we'd expect to see resistance. Would still need another 200 bips to get this indicator to flip to higher rates.
December 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
P&F on the traditional 50 pt trend still has the 30Y $TYX pointing down, but we've moved back up to that breakdown point where we'd expect to see resistance. Would still need another 200 bips to get this indicator to flip to higher rates.
I.e., Star Trek was right again.
Mind-blowingly cool use of AI
“Altogether, these findings are leading us to an extraordinary conclusion: Whales may possess a communication system more intricate than our own, one that possibly predates human language by tens of millions of years.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
“Altogether, these findings are leading us to an extraordinary conclusion: Whales may possess a communication system more intricate than our own, one that possibly predates human language by tens of millions of years.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
Opinion | I’m a Marine Biologist. This Is How I Talk to Whales.
www.nytimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 2:23 AM
I.e., Star Trek was right again.
The pause that refreshes?
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
November 29, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The pause that refreshes?
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
Alice's Restaurant - Original 1967 Recording
YouTube video by Stiletto
m.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 PM
It's been over 4 years of sideways for profitable small-caps $SPSM. We just rallied up to the resistance zone after generating that Sell signal on the 2% box chart. Hard to be optimistic with this group until it proves itself.
November 25, 2025 at 8:39 PM
It's been over 4 years of sideways for profitable small-caps $SPSM. We just rallied up to the resistance zone after generating that Sell signal on the 2% box chart. Hard to be optimistic with this group until it proves itself.
After listening to the last Rates & Barrels podcast, @dvr.bsky.social @enosarris.bsky.social, I think we need to get @iamtrevormay.bsky.social in there as the arbiter between MLB and MLBPA. I like that max # of years as an option.
November 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
After listening to the last Rates & Barrels podcast, @dvr.bsky.social @enosarris.bsky.social, I think we need to get @iamtrevormay.bsky.social in there as the arbiter between MLB and MLBPA. I like that max # of years as an option.
This triple Sell signal on $NVDA on the 2% box chart starting to feel differently as the narrative out there changes as well. It's anecdotal, but concern that this could be another head fake like that September signal is dissipating.
November 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This triple Sell signal on $NVDA on the 2% box chart starting to feel differently as the narrative out there changes as well. It's anecdotal, but concern that this could be another head fake like that September signal is dissipating.
I should have known Value would have a day like this soon. It was doing so well relatively that it got back to the last break point. $RLV / $RLG total return basis.
November 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
I should have known Value would have a day like this soon. It was doing so well relatively that it got back to the last break point. $RLV / $RLG total return basis.
I think the disconnect between economic views of aggregate #'s and cyclical sentiment, can be summed up in the Transports 10Y chart. That's between 4-5 years of nothing, and it's not just one stinky stock like $UPS dragging down the rest. There's a whole lot of nothing in this group. No volumes.
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I think the disconnect between economic views of aggregate #'s and cyclical sentiment, can be summed up in the Transports 10Y chart. That's between 4-5 years of nothing, and it's not just one stinky stock like $UPS dragging down the rest. There's a whole lot of nothing in this group. No volumes.
I can't say I recall seeing a major index with a 200 day sma that's almost completely flat for as long as the S&P 400's is now. That's basically flat since February. Just think of the math it takes to do that with some sizable zig zags in there.
November 21, 2025 at 10:35 PM
I can't say I recall seeing a major index with a 200 day sma that's almost completely flat for as long as the S&P 400's is now. That's basically flat since February. Just think of the math it takes to do that with some sizable zig zags in there.
This is a great read with lots of details for those who like to winter thru-hike. www.greenmountainclub.org/thru-hiking-...
Thru-Hiking the Long Trail in Winter - Green Mountain Club
This article previously appeared in the Winter 2019 Long Trail News. We GMC staff members have heard mention of winter end-to-end Long Trail attempts for years. We thought there had […]
www.greenmountainclub.org
November 21, 2025 at 7:10 PM
This is a great read with lots of details for those who like to winter thru-hike. www.greenmountainclub.org/thru-hiking-...
I think I have some short covering in my long-book today. We'll see how short-term the bounces are. 😁
November 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM
I think I have some short covering in my long-book today. We'll see how short-term the bounces are. 😁
I'd love to see $ORCL get cut in half in less than 3 months, but its downside momentum might start slowing. 5Y weekly rsi(10).
November 21, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I'd love to see $ORCL get cut in half in less than 3 months, but its downside momentum might start slowing. 5Y weekly rsi(10).
I've been watching a lot of the documentary recently, and I think I dreamt last night that the red coats were AI and the revolutionaries were the 493.
November 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
I've been watching a lot of the documentary recently, and I think I dreamt last night that the red coats were AI and the revolutionaries were the 493.
$NVDA 2% box size Sell signal triggered, and loving the Value > Growth rally so far this morning.
November 21, 2025 at 3:29 PM
$NVDA 2% box size Sell signal triggered, and loving the Value > Growth rally so far this morning.
$BTC 3 day bar rsi(10) reaching rare territory for its history, but it's broken its LT uptrend line, and we've seen these periods before where it requires more work down here than a simple V bottom. I suspect a bounce, but more down to follow. 60-70K zone in the future feels likely to me.
November 21, 2025 at 2:02 PM
$BTC 3 day bar rsi(10) reaching rare territory for its history, but it's broken its LT uptrend line, and we've seen these periods before where it requires more work down here than a simple V bottom. I suspect a bounce, but more down to follow. 60-70K zone in the future feels likely to me.
I know everyone is watching 180 on $NVDA, but on the 2% box size P&F it's 177.20, and now after today's move adding another column of X's, it would be a triple Sell signal. 👀
November 20, 2025 at 11:33 PM
I know everyone is watching 180 on $NVDA, but on the 2% box size P&F it's 177.20, and now after today's move adding another column of X's, it would be a triple Sell signal. 👀
Intermediate term type of indicator on the $NDX like the weekly rsi(10) suggests we're midfield.
November 20, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Intermediate term type of indicator on the $NDX like the weekly rsi(10) suggests we're midfield.
This is not an exhaustive list, but consider the 30+ year offering on Fidelity in Corp bonds listed by highest yields to maturity. Note the company $ORCL is trading with. Some of these others are trading at or below GFC valuations. It's not just CDS speculation short bets. The bond market is first.
November 20, 2025 at 9:05 PM
This is not an exhaustive list, but consider the 30+ year offering on Fidelity in Corp bonds listed by highest yields to maturity. Note the company $ORCL is trading with. Some of these others are trading at or below GFC valuations. It's not just CDS speculation short bets. The bond market is first.
Bitcoin to Wall Street:
a man is being held in a dark room and says " you 're locked in here with me "
ALT: a man is being held in a dark room and says " you 're locked in here with me "
media.tenor.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Bitcoin to Wall Street: