Non-Correlating Stock Ideas
@ncsi.bsky.social
Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/non-correlating-stock-ideas
I think this has been a problem that likely dates back to the advent of internet / LinkedIn effect on job placement. Basically, I think these 'Openings' are more fishing expeditions that don't carry real intentions for hiring. Hence, the Hire to Open ratio below.
December 9, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I think this has been a problem that likely dates back to the advent of internet / LinkedIn effect on job placement. Basically, I think these 'Openings' are more fishing expeditions that don't carry real intentions for hiring. Hence, the Hire to Open ratio below.
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
December 9, 2025 at 2:18 PM
$SGU just reported last night. Sleepiest little melting ice cube of a business no one knows or cares about, yet on a total return basis keeps up with S&P 500 while yielding north of 6% and retiring (2.8%) of its shares last FY. Its Ev/Ebitda multiple range on a TTM still as cheap as can be.
That yellow triangle on the right points to the date 14 days ago when I made that comment. This is like one of those times when you think there's a camera watching behind you, but it's more like the magazine cover effect.
Still, it rallied up to the high point in recent years, but that's all so far.
Still, it rallied up to the high point in recent years, but that's all so far.
December 8, 2025 at 11:11 PM
That yellow triangle on the right points to the date 14 days ago when I made that comment. This is like one of those times when you think there's a camera watching behind you, but it's more like the magazine cover effect.
Still, it rallied up to the high point in recent years, but that's all so far.
Still, it rallied up to the high point in recent years, but that's all so far.
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Not surprisingly with the end of year AI push, but $RSPT Tech reversed up into a column of X's vs $RSP on a total return basis. For those of us who'd like to see this end, I view this favorably as it sets up an easier potential Sell signal to be generated in the future. 👀
P&F confirms that 4.2 level's significance on the 10Y $TNX. Would be both a signal and a break of trend line.
December 8, 2025 at 2:29 PM
P&F confirms that 4.2 level's significance on the 10Y $TNX. Would be both a signal and a break of trend line.
$RHI has been starting to buck the inverse AI trade a bit. Showing signs of basing even on days like these when AI is strong. I think this use of EMA's is better for trades, but can still be useful to indicate a trend change might be underway. Waiting to see if the 8 can cross over the 21 day. 👀
December 2, 2025 at 9:50 PM
$RHI has been starting to buck the inverse AI trade a bit. Showing signs of basing even on days like these when AI is strong. I think this use of EMA's is better for trades, but can still be useful to indicate a trend change might be underway. Waiting to see if the 8 can cross over the 21 day. 👀
$PLTR eating into that resistance on the 2% box size P&F chart. AI making the end of year mark push.
December 2, 2025 at 3:20 PM
$PLTR eating into that resistance on the 2% box size P&F chart. AI making the end of year mark push.
P&F on the traditional 50 pt trend still has the 30Y $TYX pointing down, but we've moved back up to that breakdown point where we'd expect to see resistance. Would still need another 200 bips to get this indicator to flip to higher rates.
December 2, 2025 at 2:00 PM
P&F on the traditional 50 pt trend still has the 30Y $TYX pointing down, but we've moved back up to that breakdown point where we'd expect to see resistance. Would still need another 200 bips to get this indicator to flip to higher rates.
The pause that refreshes?
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
November 29, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The pause that refreshes?
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
$PLTR 2% box size chart reaching the breakdown resistance point.
It's been over 4 years of sideways for profitable small-caps $SPSM. We just rallied up to the resistance zone after generating that Sell signal on the 2% box chart. Hard to be optimistic with this group until it proves itself.
November 25, 2025 at 8:39 PM
It's been over 4 years of sideways for profitable small-caps $SPSM. We just rallied up to the resistance zone after generating that Sell signal on the 2% box chart. Hard to be optimistic with this group until it proves itself.
We do get a different signal though if we use equal-weighted S&P. That's what I use for P&F arguably because historically that's a harder measure outside of now and late 90's. Both my developed and emerging relative signals favor international currently. Total Return basis $VEU / $RSP, $IEMG / $RSP
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
We do get a different signal though if we use equal-weighted S&P. That's what I use for P&F arguably because historically that's a harder measure outside of now and late 90's. Both my developed and emerging relative signals favor international currently. Total Return basis $VEU / $RSP, $IEMG / $RSP
This triple Sell signal on $NVDA on the 2% box chart starting to feel differently as the narrative out there changes as well. It's anecdotal, but concern that this could be another head fake like that September signal is dissipating.
November 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This triple Sell signal on $NVDA on the 2% box chart starting to feel differently as the narrative out there changes as well. It's anecdotal, but concern that this could be another head fake like that September signal is dissipating.
I should have known Value would have a day like this soon. It was doing so well relatively that it got back to the last break point. $RLV / $RLG total return basis.
November 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
I should have known Value would have a day like this soon. It was doing so well relatively that it got back to the last break point. $RLV / $RLG total return basis.
I think the disconnect between economic views of aggregate #'s and cyclical sentiment, can be summed up in the Transports 10Y chart. That's between 4-5 years of nothing, and it's not just one stinky stock like $UPS dragging down the rest. There's a whole lot of nothing in this group. No volumes.
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
I think the disconnect between economic views of aggregate #'s and cyclical sentiment, can be summed up in the Transports 10Y chart. That's between 4-5 years of nothing, and it's not just one stinky stock like $UPS dragging down the rest. There's a whole lot of nothing in this group. No volumes.
I can't say I recall seeing a major index with a 200 day sma that's almost completely flat for as long as the S&P 400's is now. That's basically flat since February. Just think of the math it takes to do that with some sizable zig zags in there.
November 21, 2025 at 10:35 PM
I can't say I recall seeing a major index with a 200 day sma that's almost completely flat for as long as the S&P 400's is now. That's basically flat since February. Just think of the math it takes to do that with some sizable zig zags in there.
What you all need to do is go watch reruns of The Price Is Right, Bob Barker era. Then you'll see where the real deflation exists. Nothing like watching people guess what the price of a new range is, and seeing the actual retail price 50% more than today.
November 21, 2025 at 4:59 PM
What you all need to do is go watch reruns of The Price Is Right, Bob Barker era. Then you'll see where the real deflation exists. Nothing like watching people guess what the price of a new range is, and seeing the actual retail price 50% more than today.
I'd love to see $ORCL get cut in half in less than 3 months, but its downside momentum might start slowing. 5Y weekly rsi(10).
November 21, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I'd love to see $ORCL get cut in half in less than 3 months, but its downside momentum might start slowing. 5Y weekly rsi(10).
I've been watching a lot of the documentary recently, and I think I dreamt last night that the red coats were AI and the revolutionaries were the 493.
November 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
I've been watching a lot of the documentary recently, and I think I dreamt last night that the red coats were AI and the revolutionaries were the 493.
$NVDA 2% box size Sell signal triggered, and loving the Value > Growth rally so far this morning.
November 21, 2025 at 3:29 PM
$NVDA 2% box size Sell signal triggered, and loving the Value > Growth rally so far this morning.
If you're going to draw channels and use trend lines on a longer term chart, then it should be log. I just threw this regression channel on there, but draw your lines wherever you like. Just don't put up a 6 year chart with a massive gain in a linear format.
November 21, 2025 at 2:35 PM
If you're going to draw channels and use trend lines on a longer term chart, then it should be log. I just threw this regression channel on there, but draw your lines wherever you like. Just don't put up a 6 year chart with a massive gain in a linear format.
$BTC 3 day bar rsi(10) reaching rare territory for its history, but it's broken its LT uptrend line, and we've seen these periods before where it requires more work down here than a simple V bottom. I suspect a bounce, but more down to follow. 60-70K zone in the future feels likely to me.
November 21, 2025 at 2:02 PM
$BTC 3 day bar rsi(10) reaching rare territory for its history, but it's broken its LT uptrend line, and we've seen these periods before where it requires more work down here than a simple V bottom. I suspect a bounce, but more down to follow. 60-70K zone in the future feels likely to me.
I know everyone is watching 180 on $NVDA, but on the 2% box size P&F it's 177.20, and now after today's move adding another column of X's, it would be a triple Sell signal. 👀
November 20, 2025 at 11:33 PM
I know everyone is watching 180 on $NVDA, but on the 2% box size P&F it's 177.20, and now after today's move adding another column of X's, it would be a triple Sell signal. 👀
Intermediate term type of indicator on the $NDX like the weekly rsi(10) suggests we're midfield.
November 20, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Intermediate term type of indicator on the $NDX like the weekly rsi(10) suggests we're midfield.
This is what I've been watching. $PLTR
November 20, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This is what I've been watching. $PLTR
This is not an exhaustive list, but consider the 30+ year offering on Fidelity in Corp bonds listed by highest yields to maturity. Note the company $ORCL is trading with. Some of these others are trading at or below GFC valuations. It's not just CDS speculation short bets. The bond market is first.
November 20, 2025 at 9:05 PM
This is not an exhaustive list, but consider the 30+ year offering on Fidelity in Corp bonds listed by highest yields to maturity. Note the company $ORCL is trading with. Some of these others are trading at or below GFC valuations. It's not just CDS speculation short bets. The bond market is first.