Sebastian Carl
@mrcaseb.com
Football 🏈 in the #nflverse | #rstats | #dataviz | #engineering | Justin Herbert is Elite
https://mrcaseb.com/
https://mrcaseb.com/
Pinned
Sebastian Carl
@mrcaseb.com
· Oct 30
Since many new users are looking at my profile I summarize some of my more recent #rstats dataviz here.
Thanks for following and/or sharing!
Thanks for following and/or sharing!
-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
-- WEEK 11 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
November 12, 2025 at 2:55 PM
-- WEEK 11 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
With last night's games, the #NBA circle of parity is now complete!
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
With last night's games, the #NBA circle of parity is now complete!
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
November 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM
-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Reposted by Sebastian Carl
Apparently, the Steelers kicked off from the 50, kicked it out of bounds, and it started at the 25. That might be the solution, deliberately kick out of bounds if you get the ball for a kickoff from the 50.
There's a bit of a problem with the new kickoff and penalties.
If the defense gets a 15-yard penalty on the conversion try, the offense then kicks off from the 50.
It's very difficult to put it into the landing zone from the 50. Essentially this forces a touchback and helps the penalized team.
If the defense gets a 15-yard penalty on the conversion try, the offense then kicks off from the 50.
It's very difficult to put it into the landing zone from the 50. Essentially this forces a touchback and helps the penalized team.
November 3, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Apparently, the Steelers kicked off from the 50, kicked it out of bounds, and it started at the 25. That might be the solution, deliberately kick out of bounds if you get the ball for a kickoff from the 50.
-- WEEK 9 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
October 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM
-- WEEK 9 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Monday bump. Apparently I am missing out on Reddit karma
With their 39-38 victory, the Jets have now completed the 2025 #NFL circle of parity!
October 27, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Monday bump. Apparently I am missing out on Reddit karma
NFL schedule weirdness that I just happened to discover. The Titans are playing 4 home games (!) between weeks 9 and 13, with a bye in week 10. I couldn't find any such 4-game home game streak between 1999 and today.
October 24, 2025 at 2:20 PM
NFL schedule weirdness that I just happened to discover. The Titans are playing 4 home games (!) between weeks 9 and 13, with a bye in week 10. I couldn't find any such 4-game home game streak between 1999 and today.
Here we have the lowest and highest series conversion rates we have seen so far in the nflfastR era (1999 until today)
October 19, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Here we have the lowest and highest series conversion rates we have seen so far in the nflfastR era (1999 until today)
Does unit investment pay off?
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
October 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Does unit investment pay off?
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
@hadley.nz is there an option in pkgdown to list reexports in the reference index? I am aware of the reexports site, e.g. dplyr.tidyverse.org/reference/re...,
but those don’t appear on the index.
I would like to have those on the index for cases where I outsource functions to separate packages.
but those don’t appear on the index.
I would like to have those on the index for cases where I outsource functions to separate packages.
Objects exported from other packages — reexports
These objects are imported from other packages. Follow the links
below to see their documentation.
magrittr
%>%
pillar
type_sum
tibble
add_row, as_data_frame, as_tibble, data_frame, lst,...
dplyr.tidyverse.org
October 10, 2025 at 7:16 PM
@hadley.nz is there an option in pkgdown to list reexports in the reference index? I am aware of the reexports site, e.g. dplyr.tidyverse.org/reference/re...,
but those don’t appear on the index.
I would like to have those on the index for cases where I outsource functions to separate packages.
but those don’t appear on the index.
I would like to have those on the index for cases where I outsource functions to separate packages.
Reposted by Sebastian Carl
Has Chase Daniel already complained that the Chiefs lost because the kickoff landed half a yard short of a made-up landing zone?
don’t want that hilarious game-winning drive to overshadow that harrison butker booting the ball out of bounds set the whole thing up
October 7, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Has Chase Daniel already complained that the Chiefs lost because the kickoff landed half a yard short of a made-up landing zone?
Has Chase Daniel already complained that the Chiefs lost because the kickoff landed half a yard short of a made-up landing zone?
don’t want that hilarious game-winning drive to overshadow that harrison butker booting the ball out of bounds set the whole thing up
October 7, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Has Chase Daniel already complained that the Chiefs lost because the kickoff landed half a yard short of a made-up landing zone?
Reposted by Sebastian Carl
Updated the look of the box score site (with thanks to @mrcaseb.com)
October 6, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Updated the look of the box score site (with thanks to @mrcaseb.com)
The Indianapolis Colts currently lead the league with a point differential of +77 points
October 5, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The Indianapolis Colts currently lead the league with a point differential of +77 points
Testing new styles in boxscore app
October 5, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Testing new styles in boxscore app
@davisvaughan.bsky.social I see that you use {cross} in PRs for benchmarks across branches. Is that an internal posit package? I would love to use this for performance PRs but I have trouble finding the source.
October 4, 2025 at 9:39 AM
@davisvaughan.bsky.social I see that you use {cross} in PRs for benchmarks across branches. Is that an internal posit package? I would love to use this for performance PRs but I have trouble finding the source.
Continuously moving the ball is just as important in the NFL as explosive plays.
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
September 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Continuously moving the ball is just as important in the NFL as explosive plays.
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
Reposted by Sebastian Carl
Brian Thomas Jr. has a 46.7% catchable target rate this season, the lowest among wide receivers with 12 or more targets per @sportsinfosolutions.com.
Only 1 other receiver is even below 60%.
Only 1 other receiver is even below 60%.
September 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Brian Thomas Jr. has a 46.7% catchable target rate this season, the lowest among wide receivers with 12 or more targets per @sportsinfosolutions.com.
Only 1 other receiver is even below 60%.
Only 1 other receiver is even below 60%.
Reposted by Sebastian Carl
Thanks to @ftnfantasy.com, I can renew this old graphic I call Pillboxes.
Each tick is one snap. Upticks are passes, downticks are runs. See all 11 players on the field at the same time!
Pacheco and B.Smith sticking with mostly early down work, Kareem getting most of the 3rds.
Each tick is one snap. Upticks are passes, downticks are runs. See all 11 players on the field at the same time!
Pacheco and B.Smith sticking with mostly early down work, Kareem getting most of the 3rds.
September 24, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Thanks to @ftnfantasy.com, I can renew this old graphic I call Pillboxes.
Each tick is one snap. Upticks are passes, downticks are runs. See all 11 players on the field at the same time!
Pacheco and B.Smith sticking with mostly early down work, Kareem getting most of the 3rds.
Each tick is one snap. Upticks are passes, downticks are runs. See all 11 players on the field at the same time!
Pacheco and B.Smith sticking with mostly early down work, Kareem getting most of the 3rds.
No more blocked field goals in the late games (Seahawks didn’t count because of a penalty). We need the Lions and Ravens to break the record.
A blocked PAT would tie the record set in 2004, week 12 (5 blocked FGs, 2 blocked PATs).
A blocked PAT would tie the record set in 2004, week 12 (5 blocked FGs, 2 blocked PATs).
With 5 blocked field goal attempts in the early slate, we are only 1 block away from a new record of blocked field goals in a game week since 1999.
September 22, 2025 at 3:08 PM
No more blocked field goals in the late games (Seahawks didn’t count because of a penalty). We need the Lions and Ravens to break the record.
A blocked PAT would tie the record set in 2004, week 12 (5 blocked FGs, 2 blocked PATs).
A blocked PAT would tie the record set in 2004, week 12 (5 blocked FGs, 2 blocked PATs).
Before the season, I wouldn't have thought I'd say this, but I believe the NFL will flex the Week 7 Colts @ Chargers matchup to prime time (SNF).
September 22, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Before the season, I wouldn't have thought I'd say this, but I believe the NFL will flex the Week 7 Colts @ Chargers matchup to prime time (SNF).
The Chargers win the first three division games of the season. Since 2002, 116 teams have achieved this. 82 of them ultimately won the division (~71%). 95 of them made it to the playoffs in the given season (~82%).
September 21, 2025 at 11:33 PM
The Chargers win the first three division games of the season. Since 2002, 116 teams have achieved this. 82 of them ultimately won the division (~71%). 95 of them made it to the playoffs in the given season (~82%).