Sebastian Carl
@mrcaseb.com
Football 🏈 in the #nflverse | #rstats | #dataviz | #engineering | Justin Herbert is Elite
https://mrcaseb.com/
https://mrcaseb.com/
-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
Here you can see
1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and
2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.
Here's #1 seed leverage going into week 11 for some teams. No complete chart because it's not ready to get published and I don't have time to fix it
November 12, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Here's #1 seed leverage going into week 11 for some teams. No complete chart because it's not ready to get published and I don't have time to fix it
-- WEEK 11 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
November 12, 2025 at 2:55 PM
-- WEEK 11 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
With last night's games, the #NBA circle of parity is now complete!
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
With last night's games, the #NBA circle of parity is now complete!
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
How to read this:
Going clockwise (starting wherever you want) every team has beaten the next team that's beaten the next team and so on until it circles back.
Since you are thinking about verbs. I had this usecase I would like to overwrite the variable "b" to the value "D" where "a" == 2. Otherwise don't do anything.
I think the only dplyr solution is using if_else including the "missing" arg.
The data.table solution was so much more straightforward
I think the only dplyr solution is using if_else including the "missing" arg.
The data.table solution was so much more straightforward
November 7, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Since you are thinking about verbs. I had this usecase I would like to overwrite the variable "b" to the value "D" where "a" == 2. Otherwise don't do anything.
I think the only dplyr solution is using if_else including the "missing" arg.
The data.table solution was so much more straightforward
I think the only dplyr solution is using if_else including the "missing" arg.
The data.table solution was so much more straightforward
-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
November 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM
-- WEEK 10 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Agree, but also this from my latest PR in nflreadpy
November 1, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Agree, but also this from my latest PR in nflreadpy
-- WEEK 9 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
October 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM
-- WEEK 9 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
NFL schedule weirdness that I just happened to discover. The Titans are playing 4 home games (!) between weeks 9 and 13, with a bye in week 10. I couldn't find any such 4-game home game streak between 1999 and today.
October 24, 2025 at 2:20 PM
NFL schedule weirdness that I just happened to discover. The Titans are playing 4 home games (!) between weeks 9 and 13, with a bye in week 10. I couldn't find any such 4-game home game streak between 1999 and today.
Here we have the lowest and highest series conversion rates we have seen so far in the nflfastR era (1999 until today)
October 19, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Here we have the lowest and highest series conversion rates we have seen so far in the nflfastR era (1999 until today)
Does unit investment pay off?
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
October 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Does unit investment pay off?
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2025 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 6.
(You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
The Indianapolis Colts currently lead the league with a point differential of +77 points
October 5, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The Indianapolis Colts currently lead the league with a point differential of +77 points
Stroud having a day against the Ravens backup defense?
October 5, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Stroud having a day against the Ravens backup defense?
Testing new styles in boxscore app
October 5, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Testing new styles in boxscore app
Haha I ran some sims today as well because I was wondering what draft pick the Falcons will hand out to the Rams. Close to 30% a top-10 pick…
October 2, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Haha I ran some sims today as well because I was wondering what draft pick the Falcons will hand out to the Rams. Close to 30% a top-10 pick…
Continuously moving the ball is just as important in the NFL as explosive plays.
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
September 30, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Continuously moving the ball is just as important in the NFL as explosive plays.
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
This chart shows offensive EPA per play (x-axis) and success rate (plays where EPA > 0) split by dropback and rushing.
Imagine the Patriots fixing their rushing game!
While I agree that pak is great, I would like to note that `install.packages()` also performs parallel downloads. This was introduced in R 4.5.0.
cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/...
cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/...
September 25, 2025 at 5:04 AM
While I agree that pak is great, I would like to note that `install.packages()` also performs parallel downloads. This was introduced in R 4.5.0.
cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/...
cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/...
Before the season, I wouldn't have thought I'd say this, but I believe the NFL will flex the Week 7 Colts @ Chargers matchup to prime time (SNF).
September 22, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Before the season, I wouldn't have thought I'd say this, but I believe the NFL will flex the Week 7 Colts @ Chargers matchup to prime time (SNF).
With 5 blocked field goal attempts in the early slate, we are only 1 block away from a new record of blocked field goals in a game week since 1999.
September 21, 2025 at 8:47 PM
With 5 blocked field goal attempts in the early slate, we are only 1 block away from a new record of blocked field goals in a game week since 1999.
Happy to announce that my R package {ggpath} v 1.1.0 just hit CRAN. It fully supports ggplot2 v4.
mrcaseb.github.io/ggpath/index...
mrcaseb.github.io/ggpath/index...
September 17, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Happy to announce that my R package {ggpath} v 1.1.0 just hit CRAN. It fully supports ggplot2 v4.
mrcaseb.github.io/ggpath/index...
mrcaseb.github.io/ggpath/index...
Today's 1 PM slot was the third highest scoring in the last 25 years with a total of 513 points scored. And that with 9 games and an average of 57 points per game.
September 14, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Today's 1 PM slot was the third highest scoring in the last 25 years with a total of 513 points scored. And that with 9 games and an average of 57 points per game.