Mike Petersen
@michaelbpetersen.bsky.social
Russian military and US Navy warfighting analysis at the Center for Naval Analyses; former Senior Advisor to US Navy Chief of Naval Operations; former director of Russia Maritime Studies at the Naval War College; Sailboats good, IPAs bad, opinions mine.
I was very happy to talk about this with the Washington Post. There's quite a bit of hype about the Poseidon, but I'm not buying it. Gift article:
wapo.st/3LiPswj
wapo.st/3LiPswj
What we know about the Poseidon, Russia’s new super torpedo
Poseidon is part of Russia’s line up of “super weapons” meant to gain military parity with the West and it can supposedly drown coastal cities.
wapo.st
November 1, 2025 at 8:33 PM
I was very happy to talk about this with the Washington Post. There's quite a bit of hype about the Poseidon, but I'm not buying it. Gift article:
wapo.st/3LiPswj
wapo.st/3LiPswj
This is a reminder that a single Russian SSBN packs way more firepower than a Poseidon whatever-it-is.
October 31, 2025 at 12:58 AM
This is a reminder that a single Russian SSBN packs way more firepower than a Poseidon whatever-it-is.
One reason Russia has struggled so badly in UKR is the moribund state of Russian military operational art, which ensures tactical outcomes are linked to strategic goals. New CNA research with me, Paul Schwartz and @gabrielairosa.bsky.social shows how this is true. 1/2 www.cna.org/analyses/202...
Russian Concepts of Future Warfare Based on Lessons from the Ukraine War
This paper examines the evolution of military strategy and conventional operations over the Russia-Ukraine War.
www.cna.org
August 11, 2025 at 4:32 PM
One reason Russia has struggled so badly in UKR is the moribund state of Russian military operational art, which ensures tactical outcomes are linked to strategic goals. New CNA research with me, Paul Schwartz and @gabrielairosa.bsky.social shows how this is true. 1/2 www.cna.org/analyses/202...
We first met when he was a 1-star at Naval Forces Europe and have crossed paths quite frequently since. It’s not my job to blindly cheer on the Navy, but he’s a great choice; smart, demanding, creative, take-no-prisoners. He’ll work his staff hard, but he’ll also get results.
BREAKING: Fleet Forces Commander Caudle Nominated as Next Chief of Naval Operations — USNI News
news.usni.org/2025/06/18/f...
news.usni.org/2025/06/18/f...
Fleet Forces Commander Caudle Nominated as Next Chief of Naval Operations - USNI News
President Donald Trump tapped Adm. Daryl Caudle to serve as the next chief of naval operations, nearly four months after the removal of Adm. Lisa Franchetti. The Senate Armed Services Committee receiv...
news.usni.org
June 18, 2025 at 2:08 PM
We first met when he was a 1-star at Naval Forces Europe and have crossed paths quite frequently since. It’s not my job to blindly cheer on the Navy, but he’s a great choice; smart, demanding, creative, take-no-prisoners. He’ll work his staff hard, but he’ll also get results.
Reposted by Mike Petersen
Detailed article quoting 🇬🇧 UK defence sources on 🇷🇺 Russia's undersea warfare, surveillance and maritime sabotage activities near Britain.
Some highlights: a 🧵
1)
🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.
Some highlights: a 🧵
1)
🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.
Revealed: Putin’s secret war in UK waters
Russian sensors trying to track nuclear submarines have been found in a campaign of ‘greyzone’ warfare that also targets our energy and internet. Even oligarchs’ superyachts are in on it
www.thetimes.com
April 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Detailed article quoting 🇬🇧 UK defence sources on 🇷🇺 Russia's undersea warfare, surveillance and maritime sabotage activities near Britain.
Some highlights: a 🧵
1)
🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.
Some highlights: a 🧵
1)
🇷🇺 Russian ASW sensors suspected of attempting to spy on the UK’s nuclear submarines have been found hidden in the seas around Britain.
A thoughtful thread worth a read. I might quibble on Russian submarine missions, but the larger point holds. And there are theater-wide implications beyond Norway. The Barents can be a key staging area for long-range attacks into the UK and Iceland. Adds to importance of UK/Norway partnership.
In the discussion of how 'America First' might affect US-Norwegian defence cooperation along NATO's northern flank moving forward, a credible threat assessment is an absolute minimum. Instead, overly simplified evaluations of the nature and character of the Russian threat dominate discourse 🧵
March 3, 2025 at 11:42 PM
A thoughtful thread worth a read. I might quibble on Russian submarine missions, but the larger point holds. And there are theater-wide implications beyond Norway. The Barents can be a key staging area for long-range attacks into the UK and Iceland. Adds to importance of UK/Norway partnership.
I’ve known ADM Franchetti since she took command of Sixth Fleet. We worked some hard warfighting problems together and it was a huge honor to be a part of her team when she became CNO.
February 23, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I’ve known ADM Franchetti since she took command of Sixth Fleet. We worked some hard warfighting problems together and it was a huge honor to be a part of her team when she became CNO.
Reposted by Mike Petersen
This is one of my go-to’s in the face of the “just buy drones” crowd. A TLAM is, warhead-pound-per-dollar, already more cost effective than a Shahed, not even counting the guidance system, survivability, and modular deployability advantages. Drones are good but not perfect.
Impressive, a Tomahawk is already more than 1/3 warhead by mass (1000lb explosive, 2900 lb gross wt). You can not get order of magnitude performance increases shrinkifying the propulsion, guidance, airframe for same damage.
Some new-physics propulsion method, OK, but no one is claiming that.
Some new-physics propulsion method, OK, but no one is claiming that.
You wont be sending "swarms" of 100s or 1000s if each vehicle is the size of a Tomahawk. I'm unaware of a way to send 500lb of RDX 2000km downrange without a fairly large energy supply and airframe
And new contractors would face the same security clearance issues.
And new contractors would face the same security clearance issues.
February 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
This is one of my go-to’s in the face of the “just buy drones” crowd. A TLAM is, warhead-pound-per-dollar, already more cost effective than a Shahed, not even counting the guidance system, survivability, and modular deployability advantages. Drones are good but not perfect.
Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
February 7, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
I won’t take sides in this argument, but the bottom line is that no matter what the reason for this latest incident, Russia’s dark fleet is a significant danger in the maritime environment and requires more thoroughgoing and permanent policy solutions beyond stationing naval vessels in the Baltic.
Finland’s president—unlike many not privy to the intel—remains open to the accident theory of cable damage. “Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said there’s no conclusion yet… sabotage, a mistake or incompetence are still on the table as possible causes” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Finland’s Stubb Says Baltic Sea Cable Breach Probe Remains Open
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said there’s no conclusion yet on whether recent repeated damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was sabotage.
www.bloomberg.com
January 22, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I won’t take sides in this argument, but the bottom line is that no matter what the reason for this latest incident, Russia’s dark fleet is a significant danger in the maritime environment and requires more thoroughgoing and permanent policy solutions beyond stationing naval vessels in the Baltic.
Reposted by Mike Petersen
I’ve made this argument before but it bears repeating based on the latest ceasefire new: if CENTCOM’s strategic objectives in the Red Sea include the restoration of white shipping, you have to understand that corporate incentives are not neatly aligned towards a quick return to the Suez route.
January 16, 2025 at 7:18 PM
I’ve made this argument before but it bears repeating based on the latest ceasefire new: if CENTCOM’s strategic objectives in the Red Sea include the restoration of white shipping, you have to understand that corporate incentives are not neatly aligned towards a quick return to the Suez route.
I was Halsey Alfa faculty for a year before setting up a similar program for Russia. Hands down, Halsey Alfa is *the* premier US/China warfighting analytic and educational program in the US Navy. It goes far, far beyond any other China warfighting analysis in the world. There’s nothing like it.
Building Warfighting Competence: The Halsey Alfa Wargaming Experience
Anthony LaVolpa discusses the Halsey Alfa program and impacts to his understanding of wargaming operations, tactic, and strategies.
Anthony LaVolpa discusses the Halsey Alfa program and impacts to his understanding of wargaming operations, tactic, and strategies.
Building Warfighting Competence: The Halsey Alfa Wargaming Experience | Center for International Maritime Security
cimsec.org
January 14, 2025 at 12:02 AM
I was Halsey Alfa faculty for a year before setting up a similar program for Russia. Hands down, Halsey Alfa is *the* premier US/China warfighting analytic and educational program in the US Navy. It goes far, far beyond any other China warfighting analysis in the world. There’s nothing like it.
I’m not a skeptic of China’s military power, but a common theme of Chinese military equipment in Russian hands is that it is highly unreliable. Why would this be different if it was in Chinese hands? Either Russia analysts are overstating it or China analysts are ignoring it. What gives?
January 11, 2025 at 1:01 AM
I’m not a skeptic of China’s military power, but a common theme of Chinese military equipment in Russian hands is that it is highly unreliable. Why would this be different if it was in Chinese hands? Either Russia analysts are overstating it or China analysts are ignoring it. What gives?
One outcome of the Ukraine War is that U.S leadership has begun planning for the possibility of protraction while Russian strategy writers continue to rely on the idea of a short, sharp war with NATO.
I think there's a need for Western, and especially Euro military thinkers, to take a new look at attritional warfare.
Maneuver warfare, and the idea of a short, sharp war has been the mantra for so long, that one easily can fall for a failure of imagination, with potentially severe consequences.
Maneuver warfare, and the idea of a short, sharp war has been the mantra for so long, that one easily can fall for a failure of imagination, with potentially severe consequences.
January 3, 2025 at 1:13 PM
One outcome of the Ukraine War is that U.S leadership has begun planning for the possibility of protraction while Russian strategy writers continue to rely on the idea of a short, sharp war with NATO.
Hegseth thinks ADM Franchetti is an example of "the perils of promoting diversity and inclusion?" If true, he is wrong. I've known her since 2018 & worked for her in 2023/24 as CNO. She's successfully commanded fleets, strike groups, & destroyer squadrons. She's for real.
www.wsj.com/articles/joh...
www.wsj.com/articles/joh...
The Wealthy Investor Who Is Trump’s Choice to Rebuild the Navy
Money manager John Phelan has little national-security experience and a deep network of Republican connections.
www.wsj.com
December 30, 2024 at 4:33 PM
Hegseth thinks ADM Franchetti is an example of "the perils of promoting diversity and inclusion?" If true, he is wrong. I've known her since 2018 & worked for her in 2023/24 as CNO. She's successfully commanded fleets, strike groups, & destroyer squadrons. She's for real.
www.wsj.com/articles/joh...
www.wsj.com/articles/joh...
Reposted by Mike Petersen
Looks like folks may have counted Russia out of Syria too soon. (Probably the same people who refuse to capitalize Russia’s name, I’d wager.) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russia Nears Deal With New Syria Leaders to Keep Military Bases
Russia is nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to keep two vital military bases in the Middle East state, a key objective of the Kremlin after the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad.
www.bloomberg.com
December 12, 2024 at 11:33 PM
Looks like folks may have counted Russia out of Syria too soon. (Probably the same people who refuse to capitalize Russia’s name, I’d wager.) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
One possible outcome among many here is a renegotiated basing agreement that has more balanced terms than the one currently in effect.
by me and @maxseddon.bsky.social: not seeing a draw-down from Khmeimim or Tartus (yet). So far, all fairly static. www.ft.com/content/1922...
Russian forces stay put at key military bases in Syria
No signs of withdrawal from air and naval facilities used by Moscow for operations in Mediterranean and Africa
www.ft.com
December 11, 2024 at 4:08 AM
One possible outcome among many here is a renegotiated basing agreement that has more balanced terms than the one currently in effect.
An exceptional thread as always. To this, I'd add a point about sealift. Unless Russia has to leave immediately (they don't right now), you will see more ships at Tartus, not fewer.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/18658.... My thoughts on rumors of Russian evacuation from Syria, what we know, and what we don’t.
Thread by @MassDara on Thread Reader App
@MassDara: There are many rumors that Russia is evacuating its bases at Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria, but most assets remain there. If evacuation happens, it will be obvious. A brief thread on what is...
threadreaderapp.com
December 9, 2024 at 1:12 AM
An exceptional thread as always. To this, I'd add a point about sealift. Unless Russia has to leave immediately (they don't right now), you will see more ships at Tartus, not fewer.
Reposted by Mike Petersen
The Kremlin claims to be in contact with "representatives of the armed Syrian opposition" and supposedly got guarantees on "the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria." tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
ТАСС: оппозиция Сирии гарантировала безопасность военных баз РФ
Российские официальные лица находятся в контакте с представителями оппозиции, отметил источник в Кремле
tass.ru
December 8, 2024 at 6:06 PM
The Kremlin claims to be in contact with "representatives of the armed Syrian opposition" and supposedly got guarantees on "the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria." tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...
I’ve said it elsewhere, but unless they leave a lot of equipment behind, perhaps a better indication of imminent evacuation of Tartus is more Russian sealift appearing there, not less.
December 7, 2024 at 3:45 AM
I’ve said it elsewhere, but unless they leave a lot of equipment behind, perhaps a better indication of imminent evacuation of Tartus is more Russian sealift appearing there, not less.
Everyone seems focused on Russia fleeing Tartus/Humeimim, but it seems an equal possibility that Moscow may try to cut a deal with HTS to maintain presence at both. This is of course speculation, but seems plausible.
December 7, 2024 at 1:52 AM
Everyone seems focused on Russia fleeing Tartus/Humeimim, but it seems an equal possibility that Moscow may try to cut a deal with HTS to maintain presence at both. This is of course speculation, but seems plausible.
A thousand times, this.
The Russian Navy hasn't abandoned Tartus.
Here we see, I think, the parts of the Kilo-class SSK Novorossiysk at the left edge, a Gorshkov-class FFG, an oiler I believe is Vyazma (not 100% sure) and the Grigorovich-class FFG Admiral Grigorovich.
Here we see, I think, the parts of the Kilo-class SSK Novorossiysk at the left edge, a Gorshkov-class FFG, an oiler I believe is Vyazma (not 100% sure) and the Grigorovich-class FFG Admiral Grigorovich.
As rebel forces gain ground in Syria, only a few warships remain in Russia's naval base in Tartus.
December 7, 2024 at 12:59 AM
A thousand times, this.
Reading a Russian account of the 2022 Battle of Gostomel and came across this tidbit I didn't know: Russian paratroops were supposedly supplied with two days of lethal ammunition and a day's supply of rubber bullets. So they were expecting maybe a day of light resistance and some civil pacification.
December 6, 2024 at 8:57 PM
Reading a Russian account of the 2022 Battle of Gostomel and came across this tidbit I didn't know: Russian paratroops were supposedly supplied with two days of lethal ammunition and a day's supply of rubber bullets. So they were expecting maybe a day of light resistance and some civil pacification.
Russian warships are back in Tartus. So they are not "fleeing." This is a plea for putting a little sobriety back into analysis.
December 6, 2024 at 3:16 PM
Russian warships are back in Tartus. So they are not "fleeing." This is a plea for putting a little sobriety back into analysis.