Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
@mdubrawski.bsky.social
Author of the One-Armed Pundit Substack (forecasting, foresight, future, geopolitics, policy, decision-making) https://onearmedpundit.substack.com
Suporting decision-makers as a professional forecaster at Metaculus and INFER (michal_dubrawski)
Suporting decision-makers as a professional forecaster at Metaculus and INFER (michal_dubrawski)
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
"AI capabilities are already superhuman in many ways and continue to improve. AI doesn’t need to exhibit general intelligence or consciousness—it doesn’t have to be some kind of magical universal hammer—to be capable of dangerous behavior or to be used for dangerous ends."
Magic Hammers
Wake up babe new AI model just dropped
tellingthefuture.substack.com
September 18, 2024 at 3:27 AM
"AI capabilities are already superhuman in many ways and continue to improve. AI doesn’t need to exhibit general intelligence or consciousness—it doesn’t have to be some kind of magical universal hammer—to be capable of dangerous behavior or to be used for dangerous ends."
I stared a new series on my blog. If you are interested, read "The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1" open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1
Good books can boost your development as a forecaster. They expose you to diverse ideas and methods, which you can test in your forecasting practice. Then you select what works for you.
open.substack.com
September 17, 2024 at 11:13 AM
I stared a new series on my blog. If you are interested, read "The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1" open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman to break down Ukraine's Kursk offensive. www.powervertical.org/2024/08/22/u...
UKRAINE’S KURSK OFFENSIVE
Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast two weeks ago has boosted Kyiv’s morale and changed the narrative of the war.
www.powervertical.org
August 23, 2024 at 5:37 PM
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman to break down Ukraine's Kursk offensive. www.powervertical.org/2024/08/22/u...
What to do with old business cards after a promotion or job change? I used mine to make flashcards.
December 30, 2023 at 5:36 PM
What to do with old business cards after a promotion or job change? I used mine to make flashcards.
Why prediction markets might not be the ultimate tool for policymakers? How to make forecasting more useful for decision and policy support? Listen to the first episode of "Talking about the future Podcast" and Robert's interview with Michael Story, director of Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting.
"Decision makers are quite unlikely to have a list of things that they're worried about and just need to assign probabilities to, right? That's not the problem they have." In my new podcast I interview Swift Centre Director Michael Story about how to make forecasts that are useful.
Michael Story on Making Useful Forecasts
"It's like we're firing these forecasts out into the void"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
December 2, 2023 at 12:45 AM
Why prediction markets might not be the ultimate tool for policymakers? How to make forecasting more useful for decision and policy support? Listen to the first episode of "Talking about the future Podcast" and Robert's interview with Michael Story, director of Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting.
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
"Early polls tend to be a referendum on incumbents, rather than a serious choice between candidates. They allow voters to express their dissatisfaction in a way that has no real consequences."
Early Polls and Off-Year Elections
Republicans are still a mess
tellingthefuture.substack.com
November 17, 2023 at 1:59 AM
"Early polls tend to be a referendum on incumbents, rather than a serious choice between candidates. They allow voters to express their dissatisfaction in a way that has no real consequences."
I am reading "The Knowledge Manager's Handbook" by Nick Milton and Patrick Lambe, and I am learning a lot. One of the useful ideas I found there, is to treat every project, task or process, where there is a difference (positive or negative) between expectations and outcome as a learning opportunity.
December 1, 2023 at 3:47 PM
I am reading "The Knowledge Manager's Handbook" by Nick Milton and Patrick Lambe, and I am learning a lot. One of the useful ideas I found there, is to treat every project, task or process, where there is a difference (positive or negative) between expectations and outcome as a learning opportunity.
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
I agree gaming can be useful, but it’s also important not to misunderstand what superforecasting (as it’s known) entails. It’s not about any one tool. One of the key principles of good forecasting is aggregation of multiple tools and viewpoints.
November 13, 2023 at 12:29 AM
I agree gaming can be useful, but it’s also important not to misunderstand what superforecasting (as it’s known) entails. It’s not about any one tool. One of the key principles of good forecasting is aggregation of multiple tools and viewpoints.
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
*When expert predictions fail* - a new article in *Trends in Cognitive Sciences* with Michael Varnum Cendri Hutcherson & David Mandel - a challenging and likely provocative argument. Happy to discuss osf.io/preprints/ps...
October 13, 2023 at 8:22 PM
*When expert predictions fail* - a new article in *Trends in Cognitive Sciences* with Michael Varnum Cendri Hutcherson & David Mandel - a challenging and likely provocative argument. Happy to discuss osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Maria Snegovaya and Kathleen Smith about then new report from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “The Ideology of Putinism: Is It Sustainable?” Enjoy... www.powervertical.org/2023/10/05/t...
THE PUTINIST IDEOLOGY
What does Vladimir Putin believe? Is there a coherent ideology driving his regime, its autocracy, and its imperial ambitions? If so, where did this ideology come from? And what does it mean for Rus…
www.powervertical.org
October 6, 2023 at 6:56 AM
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Maria Snegovaya and Kathleen Smith about then new report from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “The Ideology of Putinism: Is It Sustainable?” Enjoy... www.powervertical.org/2023/10/05/t...
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
"Jews as rats, Jews as vermin, Jews as parasites, Jews as octopi—I tried reporting them all, but as far as Twitter’s concerned, all of that’s just fine. They cannot 'identify any violations of the Twitter Rules' in any of it."
@claireberlinski.bsky.social documents just how bad X has gotten
@claireberlinski.bsky.social documents just how bad X has gotten
Dear Linda Yaccarino
Do you really want to be associated with the most vile public outpouring of antisemitism in American history?
open.substack.com
September 6, 2023 at 12:24 AM
"Jews as rats, Jews as vermin, Jews as parasites, Jews as octopi—I tried reporting them all, but as far as Twitter’s concerned, all of that’s just fine. They cannot 'identify any violations of the Twitter Rules' in any of it."
@claireberlinski.bsky.social documents just how bad X has gotten
@claireberlinski.bsky.social documents just how bad X has gotten
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
My latest, on why I think that if there's a recession it's probably won't be severe.
Fingers Crossed for a Soft Landing
Do you believe in immaculate disinflation?
tellingthefuture.substack.com
September 26, 2023 at 11:52 PM
My latest, on why I think that if there's a recession it's probably won't be severe.
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Jeff Mankoff of the National Defense University about Putin's ongoing efforts to establish hegemony over Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus even as his war on Ukraine falters. www.powervertical.org/2023/09/08/p...
PUTIN’S OTHER WARS
As Ukraine continues to make incremental gains in its counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces in the east, Moscow is conducting a quieter offensive of its own in other parts of the former…
www.powervertical.org
September 9, 2023 at 12:10 AM
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Jeff Mankoff of the National Defense University about Putin's ongoing efforts to establish hegemony over Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus even as his war on Ukraine falters. www.powervertical.org/2023/09/08/p...
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
Our view of any ongoing war is always incomplete. But there are certain variables which are more likely than others to have a substantial impact on the course of the war in Ukraine in 2024. My latest article explores these variables.
mickryan.substack.com/p/variables-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/variables-...
Variables in the Ukraine War for 2024
Our view of any ongoing war is always incomplete. This is because, like all wars, there are many things about it, even in this age of social media and greater battlefield transparency, that are yet to...
mickryan.substack.com
September 8, 2023 at 6:12 AM
Our view of any ongoing war is always incomplete. But there are certain variables which are more likely than others to have a substantial impact on the course of the war in Ukraine in 2024. My latest article explores these variables.
mickryan.substack.com/p/variables-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/variables-...
Who will control the House and the Senate after the next US elections?
You can get insightful forecasts from reading this great new article by @deneufville.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/tellingt...
You can get insightful forecasts from reading this great new article by @deneufville.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/tellingt...
Trading Places
Republicans and Democrats could swap control of the House and Senate
open.substack.com
September 4, 2023 at 10:41 PM
Who will control the House and the Senate after the next US elections?
You can get insightful forecasts from reading this great new article by @deneufville.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/tellingt...
You can get insightful forecasts from reading this great new article by @deneufville.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/tellingt...
I just published the first part of my forecasting case study & post-mortem analysis related to the Russian Moon landing attempt.
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
August 27, 2023 at 1:21 PM
I just published the first part of my forecasting case study & post-mortem analysis related to the Russian Moon landing attempt.
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
My latest piece is on why Republicans probably won't be able to unseat Biden.
Biden's the Favorite in 2024
Republicans are a mess
tellingthefuture.substack.com
August 25, 2023 at 3:14 AM
My latest piece is on why Republicans probably won't be able to unseat Biden.
The Mental Map is not the Territory. What Robert describes here is important.To paraphrase Erica Thompson: the Hawkmoth Effect is based on the observation that even when the models are in some sense ‘only slightly wrong’, the divergence of the resulting forecast from reality can still be significant
August 20, 2023 at 9:19 PM
The Mental Map is not the Territory. What Robert describes here is important.To paraphrase Erica Thompson: the Hawkmoth Effect is based on the observation that even when the models are in some sense ‘only slightly wrong’, the divergence of the resulting forecast from reality can still be significant
Another great article from Robert de Neufville - highly recommended 👇
August 17, 2023 at 7:44 AM
Another great article from Robert de Neufville - highly recommended 👇
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
The Battle of Hostomel - a terrific early history of the Ukraine War’s initial, and crucial, early battle. From @warontherocks
The Battle of Hostomel Airport: A Key Moment in Russia’s Defeat in Kyiv - War on the Rocks
Editor's note: The three authors recorded a companion podcast for this article for the Russia Contingency, the War on the Rocks members-only show that
warontherocks.com
August 10, 2023 at 8:51 PM
The Battle of Hostomel - a terrific early history of the Ukraine War’s initial, and crucial, early battle. From @warontherocks
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
"Overconfidence in our ability to project future events leads to confident predictions that humans—in spite of the fact that the global population is greater now than at any other time in history—are actually on the verge of extinction."
The Outside View
We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong
tellingthefuture.substack.com
August 8, 2023 at 2:21 AM
"Overconfidence in our ability to project future events leads to confident predictions that humans—in spite of the fact that the global population is greater now than at any other time in history—are actually on the verge of extinction."
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
The ECOWAS deadline for reinstating Niger's President and restoring the constitution has now passed, without success.
As the deadline expired, Niger closed its airspace.
ECOWAS defence chiefs have drafted military intervention plans, pending final agreement on implementation and timing.
As the deadline expired, Niger closed its airspace.
ECOWAS defence chiefs have drafted military intervention plans, pending final agreement on implementation and timing.
August 7, 2023 at 4:54 AM
The ECOWAS deadline for reinstating Niger's President and restoring the constitution has now passed, without success.
As the deadline expired, Niger closed its airspace.
ECOWAS defence chiefs have drafted military intervention plans, pending final agreement on implementation and timing.
As the deadline expired, Niger closed its airspace.
ECOWAS defence chiefs have drafted military intervention plans, pending final agreement on implementation and timing.
As I shared it on the previous platform two years ago, I find below quote form
@adamgrant.bsky.social 's "Think again" 🤔 book 📖 very inspiring. It shows the value of complicating rather then simplifying the narratives and of nuanced thinking and writing.
@adamgrant.bsky.social 's "Think again" 🤔 book 📖 very inspiring. It shows the value of complicating rather then simplifying the narratives and of nuanced thinking and writing.
August 2, 2023 at 1:54 PM
As I shared it on the previous platform two years ago, I find below quote form
@adamgrant.bsky.social 's "Think again" 🤔 book 📖 very inspiring. It shows the value of complicating rather then simplifying the narratives and of nuanced thinking and writing.
@adamgrant.bsky.social 's "Think again" 🤔 book 📖 very inspiring. It shows the value of complicating rather then simplifying the narratives and of nuanced thinking and writing.
Reposted by Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)
My latest Substack on superforecaster predictions for the end of the world
Forecasting the End of the World
New estimates of p(doom)
tellingthefuture.substack.com
July 25, 2023 at 5:05 AM
My latest Substack on superforecaster predictions for the end of the world