What to do with old business cards after a promotion or job change? I used mine to make flashcards.

I am reading "The Knowledge Manager's Handbook" by Nick Milton and Patrick Lambe, and I am learning a lot. One of the useful ideas I found there, is to treat every project, task or process, where there is a difference (positive or negative) between expectations and outcome as a learning opportunity.

I just published the first part of my forecasting case study & post-mortem analysis related to the Russian Moon landing attempt.
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...

The Mental Map is not the Territory. What Robert describes here is important.To paraphrase Erica Thompson: the Hawkmoth Effect is based on the observation that even when the models are in some sense ‘only slightly wrong’, the divergence of the resulting forecast from reality can still be significant

Another great article from Robert de Neufville - highly recommended 👇

Three tips from this article:

It includes some strategies for bringing in more nuances:
1. Amplify Contradictions
2. Widen the Lens
3. Ask Questions that Get to People’s Motivations
What is oversimplified about this issue?
How has this conflict affected your life?
What do you think the other side wants?

As I shared it on the previous platform two years ago, I find below quote form
@adamgrant.bsky.social 's "Think again" 🤔 book 📖 very inspiring. It shows the value of complicating rather then simplifying the narratives and of nuanced thinking and writing.

Great article by Robert de Neufville!Will the human race learn to act together to ensure our long-term survival as a species?

Robert wrote a fascinating article about the future of humanity and AI. He included his probabilities of different scenarios. I highly recommend reading it. You might also consider subscribing to his substack.