Igor Grossmann, PhD
@igi.bsky.social
Professor of psychology. Study culture and societal change, wisdom, good judgment (and lack thereof), forecasting, and new methods. Forecasting Collaborative founder | 🇺🇦🇩🇪🇺🇸🇨🇦 Psych Inquiry Editor. igorgrossmann.com OnWisdompodcast.com
Why you’re wise on Tuesday and foolish on Sunday: Practising #wisdom in uncertain times - a brief sunday read & a mild rant against "one trick" gurus & substakers. theconversation.com/why-youre-wi... @theconversation.com
Why you’re wise on Tuesday and foolish on Sunday: Practising wisdom in uncertain times
Wisdom fluctuates. New longitudinal evidence suggests wise reasoning is a trainable toolkit —not a trait — and repeated distanced self-reflection can strengthen it in daily life.
theconversation.com
January 4, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Why you’re wise on Tuesday and foolish on Sunday: Practising #wisdom in uncertain times - a brief sunday read & a mild rant against "one trick" gurus & substakers. theconversation.com/why-youre-wi... @theconversation.com
A must-read for anyone interested in historiography, cognitive science, or decision-making.
#History #AHR #Forecasting #Retrodiction #AcademicSky
#History #AHR #Forecasting #Retrodiction #AcademicSky
December 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
A must-read for anyone interested in historiography, cognitive science, or decision-making.
#History #AHR #Forecasting #Retrodiction #AcademicSky
#History #AHR #Forecasting #Retrodiction #AcademicSky
Foxes vs. Hedgehogs: Will grand theorists (hedgehogs) or flexible thinkers (foxes) be better at predicting the contents of a 20-year-old classified document, or those who balance the two doi.org/10.1162/opmi... ? The authors propose "Retrodiction Tournaments" to find out. 🦊🦔
The Wise Mind Balances the Abstract and the Concrete
Abstract. We explored how individuals’ mental representations of complex and uncertain situations impact their ability to reason wisely. To this end, we introduce situated methods to capture abstract ...
doi.org
December 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Foxes vs. Hedgehogs: Will grand theorists (hedgehogs) or flexible thinkers (foxes) be better at predicting the contents of a 20-year-old classified document, or those who balance the two doi.org/10.1162/opmi... ? The authors propose "Retrodiction Tournaments" to find out. 🦊🦔
The Science: The paper applies our research on forecasting and wisdom. Just as "superforecasters" use intellectual humility to predict the future, historians can use these cognitive strategies to better "retrodict" the past.
December 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The Science: The paper applies our research on forecasting and wisdom. Just as "superforecasters" use intellectual humility to predict the future, historians can use these cognitive strategies to better "retrodict" the past.
The Core Idea: Historians often explain events after the fact. This paper suggests we should predict what embargoed archives will reveal before they open. It turns "missing evidence" into a test of expert judgment.
December 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The Core Idea: Historians often explain events after the fact. This paper suggests we should predict what embargoed archives will reveal before they open. It turns "missing evidence" into a test of expert judgment.
Can we predict the past? 🔮
New open-access paper in American Historical Review proposes 'Retrodiction'—using gaps in the archival record to test historical theories.
Interdisciplinary collab feat. David Gill, Marc Trachtenberg, Phil Tetlock, Cendri Hutcherson, and more 🧵👇
New open-access paper in American Historical Review proposes 'Retrodiction'—using gaps in the archival record to test historical theories.
Interdisciplinary collab feat. David Gill, Marc Trachtenberg, Phil Tetlock, Cendri Hutcherson, and more 🧵👇
December 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Can we predict the past? 🔮
New open-access paper in American Historical Review proposes 'Retrodiction'—using gaps in the archival record to test historical theories.
Interdisciplinary collab feat. David Gill, Marc Trachtenberg, Phil Tetlock, Cendri Hutcherson, and more 🧵👇
New open-access paper in American Historical Review proposes 'Retrodiction'—using gaps in the archival record to test historical theories.
Interdisciplinary collab feat. David Gill, Marc Trachtenberg, Phil Tetlock, Cendri Hutcherson, and more 🧵👇
I did not, but it looks super interesting. Thank you for sharing!
December 29, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I did not, but it looks super interesting. Thank you for sharing!
Preprint here: osf.io/preprints/ps...
#CulturalPsych #SocPsych #CulturalEvolution #SocialChange #Forecasting #Methods #LLMs
#CulturalPsych #SocPsych #CulturalEvolution #SocialChange #Forecasting #Methods #LLMs
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
The future of the field? Prediction.
We argue for a predictive science of cultural dynamics—using forecasting tournaments & AI-empowered "retrodiction" analyses.
Psychology isn't just a historical, but also a predictive science. It's time our methods reflected that. ⏳
We argue for a predictive science of cultural dynamics—using forecasting tournaments & AI-empowered "retrodiction" analyses.
Psychology isn't just a historical, but also a predictive science. It's time our methods reflected that. ⏳
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
The future of the field? Prediction.
We argue for a predictive science of cultural dynamics—using forecasting tournaments & AI-empowered "retrodiction" analyses.
Psychology isn't just a historical, but also a predictive science. It's time our methods reflected that. ⏳
We argue for a predictive science of cultural dynamics—using forecasting tournaments & AI-empowered "retrodiction" analyses.
Psychology isn't just a historical, but also a predictive science. It's time our methods reflected that. ⏳
Our article also serves as a primer for junior scholars for conducting research on cultural change, aiming to empower scientists to move beyond the business-as-usual retrospective cross-sectional approaches to studying culture and social change (see Box 1).
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Our article also serves as a primer for junior scholars for conducting research on cultural change, aiming to empower scientists to move beyond the business-as-usual retrospective cross-sectional approaches to studying culture and social change (see Box 1).
We review case studies showing: 📈 Individualism tracking economic development. 📉 Fertility declining as population density rises. 🦠 Gender equality shifting with pathogen prevalence.
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
We review case studies showing: 📈 Individualism tracking economic development. 📉 Fertility declining as population density rises. 🦠 Gender equality shifting with pathogen prevalence.
How does this expand on Cultural Evolution? 🧬
1. Temporal precision: We don't just say "culture changes"; we model lags, feedbacks, and non-linear shifts.
2. Ecological grounding: We link shifts in individualism & fertility to hard data on pathogens, density, or economy.
1. Temporal precision: We don't just say "culture changes"; we model lags, feedbacks, and non-linear shifts.
2. Ecological grounding: We link shifts in individualism & fertility to hard data on pathogens, density, or economy.
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
How does this expand on Cultural Evolution? 🧬
1. Temporal precision: We don't just say "culture changes"; we model lags, feedbacks, and non-linear shifts.
2. Ecological grounding: We link shifts in individualism & fertility to hard data on pathogens, density, or economy.
1. Temporal precision: We don't just say "culture changes"; we model lags, feedbacks, and non-linear shifts.
2. Ecological grounding: We link shifts in individualism & fertility to hard data on pathogens, density, or economy.
Cultural psychology often explains differences using distant history. But if history drives psychology, we should track changes over time and test our causal models against future data.
We introduce an "Ecological Time-Series Approach" to test these dynamics rigorously.
We introduce an "Ecological Time-Series Approach" to test these dynamics rigorously.
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Cultural psychology often explains differences using distant history. But if history drives psychology, we should track changes over time and test our causal models against future data.
We introduce an "Ecological Time-Series Approach" to test these dynamics rigorously.
We introduce an "Ecological Time-Series Approach" to test these dynamics rigorously.
🚨 New Paper Alert 🚨 "Understanding & Predicting Cultural Change" is accepted at Advances in Experimental Social Psychology!
Varnum & I argue that Psychology cannot afford to be blind to time. We need to move from cross-sectional snapshots to dynamic time-series movies. 🧵👇
Varnum & I argue that Psychology cannot afford to be blind to time. We need to move from cross-sectional snapshots to dynamic time-series movies. 🧵👇
December 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
🚨 New Paper Alert 🚨 "Understanding & Predicting Cultural Change" is accepted at Advances in Experimental Social Psychology!
Varnum & I argue that Psychology cannot afford to be blind to time. We need to move from cross-sectional snapshots to dynamic time-series movies. 🧵👇
Varnum & I argue that Psychology cannot afford to be blind to time. We need to move from cross-sectional snapshots to dynamic time-series movies. 🧵👇
Don’t let previous news stop you. If you have a stellar record, let’s talk. Nominations for 2026 starts soon, so fill out this form today: forms.gle/wpyczWoRYJtK...
#Academics #WisdomResearch #PhDLife #PostdocJobs (4/4)
#Academics #WisdomResearch #PhDLife #PostdocJobs (4/4)
Canada Impact+ Research Training Awards inquiry
Inquiry for top international students/postdocs to join Wisdom & Culture Lab (Dr. Igor Grossmann, Psychology Professor, University of Waterloo ) as part of Canada Impact+ Research Training Awards (CIR...
forms.gle
December 19, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Don’t let previous news stop you. If you have a stellar record, let’s talk. Nominations for 2026 starts soon, so fill out this form today: forms.gle/wpyczWoRYJtK...
#Academics #WisdomResearch #PhDLife #PostdocJobs (4/4)
#Academics #WisdomResearch #PhDLife #PostdocJobs (4/4)
We focus on the science of #wisdom, #culture, #socialchange, #judgment, #forecasting, and #AIandSociety. If you are a high-achieving student with a passion for these topics, we want to hear from you—regardless of your country of origin. (3/4)
December 19, 2025 at 11:23 PM
We focus on the science of #wisdom, #culture, #socialchange, #judgment, #forecasting, and #AIandSociety. If you are a high-achieving student with a passion for these topics, we want to hear from you—regardless of your country of origin. (3/4)
he funding is significant: 💰 $40k/year for PhDs 💰 $70k/year for Postdocs
This is a federal initiative to bypass local hurdles and bring top-tier researchers to 🇨🇦. My lab (Wisdom & Culture Lab) is ready to nominate candidates. (2/4)
This is a federal initiative to bypass local hurdles and bring top-tier researchers to 🇨🇦. My lab (Wisdom & Culture Lab) is ready to nominate candidates. (2/4)
December 19, 2025 at 11:23 PM
he funding is significant: 💰 $40k/year for PhDs 💰 $70k/year for Postdocs
This is a federal initiative to bypass local hurdles and bring top-tier researchers to 🇨🇦. My lab (Wisdom & Culture Lab) is ready to nominate candidates. (2/4)
This is a federal initiative to bypass local hurdles and bring top-tier researchers to 🇨🇦. My lab (Wisdom & Culture Lab) is ready to nominate candidates. (2/4)
International students: Were you told "no" to Waterloo recently due to recruitment bans? The door just swung back open. 🚪🔓
Canada just launched the Impact+ Research Training Awards (CIRTA), and my lab is looking for the best global talent to join us. (1/4)
Canada just launched the Impact+ Research Training Awards (CIRTA), and my lab is looking for the best global talent to join us. (1/4)
December 19, 2025 at 11:23 PM
International students: Were you told "no" to Waterloo recently due to recruitment bans? The door just swung back open. 🚪🔓
Canada just launched the Impact+ Research Training Awards (CIRTA), and my lab is looking for the best global talent to join us. (1/4)
Canada just launched the Impact+ Research Training Awards (CIRTA), and my lab is looking for the best global talent to join us. (1/4)
Wrapping up the year feeling very grateful for the brilliant team at the Wisdom & Culture Lab (plus alumni!). End-of-term outing to Toronto’s St. Lawrence Market + the Distillery District—great convos, great company, great snacks. Happy Holidays! 🎓✨🍁
December 13, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Wrapping up the year feeling very grateful for the brilliant team at the Wisdom & Culture Lab (plus alumni!). End-of-term outing to Toronto’s St. Lawrence Market + the Distillery District—great convos, great company, great snacks. Happy Holidays! 🎓✨🍁
Are you curious about the results of our #wisdomturingtest? Want to find out who was the AI? If so, tune-in to the second part of the ON WISDOM podcast on the "Wisdom Turing Test," with the amazing @steverathje.bsky.social : onwisdompodcast.fireside.fm/67
#TuringTest #ChineseRoom #AIsycophancy
#TuringTest #ChineseRoom #AIsycophancy
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
lnkd.in
November 17, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Are you curious about the results of our #wisdomturingtest? Want to find out who was the AI? If so, tune-in to the second part of the ON WISDOM podcast on the "Wisdom Turing Test," with the amazing @steverathje.bsky.social : onwisdompodcast.fireside.fm/67
#TuringTest #ChineseRoom #AIsycophancy
#TuringTest #ChineseRoom #AIsycophancy
Excited to talk about the #dangers to #science panel on Thursday and to see old and new RSC friends in MTL this week!
In partnership with @umontreal.ca, @hec.ca & @polymtl.bsky.social, we invite you to join us for the RSC’s national conference, the 2025 RSC Celebration of Excellence and Engagement from November 12 to 16 in Montréal. ✨ Register here: bit.ly/COEE2025
November 11, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Reposted by Igor Grossmann, PhD
Wisdom isn’t about what you think; it’s about how you think. It’s using a set of mental tools. On this week’s episode of How God Works, we explore the science behind wisdom with @igi.bsky.social and take a look at modern & centuries old ways of cultivating it. www.howgodworks.org/podcast/seas...
November 4, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Wisdom isn’t about what you think; it’s about how you think. It’s using a set of mental tools. On this week’s episode of How God Works, we explore the science behind wisdom with @igi.bsky.social and take a look at modern & centuries old ways of cultivating it. www.howgodworks.org/podcast/seas...
Enjoyed talking to David Cooper on The Last Show about how to make wise choices @dtcooper.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/i...
Igor Grossmann: Making Wise Choices - October 31, 2025
Podcast Episode · The Last Show with David Cooper · 2025-11-01 · 11m
podcasts.apple.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Enjoyed talking to David Cooper on The Last Show about how to make wise choices @dtcooper.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/i...