Igor Grossmann, PhD
@igi.bsky.social
Professor of psychology. Study culture and societal change, wisdom, good judgment (and lack thereof), forecasting, and new methods. Forecasting Collaborative founder | 🇺🇦🇩🇪🇺🇸🇨🇦 Psych Inquiry Editor. igorgrossmann.com OnWisdompodcast.com
Research can feel like shouting into the void. I’m deeply grateful that Emma Buchtel, Xu Jingya, & Betul Turel built on our “wise reasoning” work to tackle cultural diversity. They presented a large-scale study proposal at the 2025
@psychscience.bsky.social Global Summit. #culturaldiversity
@psychscience.bsky.social Global Summit. #culturaldiversity
October 27, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Research can feel like shouting into the void. I’m deeply grateful that Emma Buchtel, Xu Jingya, & Betul Turel built on our “wise reasoning” work to tackle cultural diversity. They presented a large-scale study proposal at the 2025
@psychscience.bsky.social Global Summit. #culturaldiversity
@psychscience.bsky.social Global Summit. #culturaldiversity
2 years ago I was critical of our field’s “big intervention mindset:" pre-post studies, no prediction, no generalizability, zero modeling of temporal change. Since then: work on When Expert Predictions Fail , ecological fallacies in claims about “change,” and formal modeling tutorials.
October 15, 2025 at 10:37 PM
2 years ago I was critical of our field’s “big intervention mindset:" pre-post studies, no prediction, no generalizability, zero modeling of temporal change. Since then: work on When Expert Predictions Fail , ecological fallacies in claims about “change,” and formal modeling tutorials.
Back in Portugal 🇵🇹 for #SESP2025 — and for the first time, #SESP itself is happening in Europe (Lisbon).
This Saturday, 3:45–4:45 PM → Room Milão
Chairing a symposium on #intellectual #humility in the #wild: #polarization, rural disputes, and #forecasting #societal #progress.
This Saturday, 3:45–4:45 PM → Room Milão
Chairing a symposium on #intellectual #humility in the #wild: #polarization, rural disputes, and #forecasting #societal #progress.
October 15, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Back in Portugal 🇵🇹 for #SESP2025 — and for the first time, #SESP itself is happening in Europe (Lisbon).
This Saturday, 3:45–4:45 PM → Room Milão
Chairing a symposium on #intellectual #humility in the #wild: #polarization, rural disputes, and #forecasting #societal #progress.
This Saturday, 3:45–4:45 PM → Room Milão
Chairing a symposium on #intellectual #humility in the #wild: #polarization, rural disputes, and #forecasting #societal #progress.
5/ Our companion ERSP review shows why the field got stuck: Too many studies confuse between-person differences (“wise vs. less wise”) with within-person change (“how to become wiser”). www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Classic ecological fallacy.
Classic ecological fallacy.
August 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
5/ Our companion ERSP review shows why the field got stuck: Too many studies confuse between-person differences (“wise vs. less wise”) with within-person change (“how to become wiser”). www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Classic ecological fallacy.
Classic ecological fallacy.
4/ Instead: Wisdom = a dynamic network of #intellectualhumility, #perspective-taking, #compromise, & recognition of #change.
It ebbs and flows with context.
#NetworkScience
It ebbs and flows with context.
#NetworkScience
August 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
4/ Instead: Wisdom = a dynamic network of #intellectualhumility, #perspective-taking, #compromise, & recognition of #change.
It ebbs and flows with context.
#NetworkScience
It ebbs and flows with context.
#NetworkScience
2/ We now decided to use more mature dynamic modelling systems to look at factors that may promote #within-person #growth What did predict wiser reasoning months later?
👉 Self-distancing: stepping back, taking an outsider’s view.
Not social support. Not “finding meaning.”
#SelfDistancing
👉 Self-distancing: stepping back, taking an outsider’s view.
Not social support. Not “finding meaning.”
#SelfDistancing
August 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
2/ We now decided to use more mature dynamic modelling systems to look at factors that may promote #within-person #growth What did predict wiser reasoning months later?
👉 Self-distancing: stepping back, taking an outsider’s view.
Not social support. Not “finding meaning.”
#SelfDistancing
👉 Self-distancing: stepping back, taking an outsider’s view.
Not social support. Not “finding meaning.”
#SelfDistancing
🚨 New paper out in JEP: General! psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
Does adversity make us wiser?
Spoiler: Not by default.
Does adversity make us wiser?
Spoiler: Not by default.
August 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
🚨 New paper out in JEP: General! psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...
Does adversity make us wiser?
Spoiler: Not by default.
Does adversity make us wiser?
Spoiler: Not by default.
New Issue Alert: #Psychological #Inquiry, Vol. 36 (3), featuring the #open-access target article by Melody M. Chao: Introducing the ALPs Model for cultural competence.
Read it here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Full issue: www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/36/3#OpenAccess Check it out & share.
Read it here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Full issue: www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/36/3#OpenAccess Check it out & share.
August 22, 2025 at 3:17 AM
New Issue Alert: #Psychological #Inquiry, Vol. 36 (3), featuring the #open-access target article by Melody M. Chao: Introducing the ALPs Model for cultural competence.
Read it here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Full issue: www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/36/3#OpenAccess Check it out & share.
Read it here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Full issue: www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/36/3#OpenAccess Check it out & share.
8/10 Cross-checks: Effects replicate when strategies aren’t framed as exclusive, and in small-scale societies using oral interviews.
August 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
8/10 Cross-checks: Effects replicate when strategies aren’t framed as exclusive, and in small-scale societies using oral interviews.
7/10 #Independence vs #interdependence calibrate (but don’t reverse) the pattern. Even in more interdependent contexts, self-reliant choices dominate. Likely reasons: autonomy feels rewarding; private evidence is more vivid; advice can carry reputational costs/obligations.
August 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
7/10 #Independence vs #interdependence calibrate (but don’t reverse) the pattern. Even in more interdependent contexts, self-reliant choices dominate. Likely reasons: autonomy feels rewarding; private evidence is more vivid; advice can carry reputational costs/obligations.
4/10 Result: self-reliance is the modal preference. People mostly pick private deliberation (often #1) or intuition. Advice-oriented routes trail.
August 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
4/10 Result: self-reliance is the modal preference. People mostly pick private deliberation (often #1) or intuition. Advice-oriented routes trail.
2/10 Together with colleagues at Geography of Philosophy, we put four strategies head-to-head across six everyday dilemmas: #intuition, private #deliberation, friends’ #advice, and the #wisdomofcrowds.
August 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
2/10 Together with colleagues at Geography of Philosophy, we put four strategies head-to-head across six everyday dilemmas: #intuition, private #deliberation, friends’ #advice, and the #wisdomofcrowds.
1/10 Finally out in Proceedings B @royalsociety.org ! This took a while—big scope, many hands. We started with a worry: maybe Solomon’s paradox (doi.org/10.1177/0956797614535400) is “too obvious.” If stepping back helps wise choices, surely everyone does it… right?
August 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
1/10 Finally out in Proceedings B @royalsociety.org ! This took a while—big scope, many hands. We started with a worry: maybe Solomon’s paradox (doi.org/10.1177/0956797614535400) is “too obvious.” If stepping back helps wise choices, surely everyone does it… right?
We still know little how to boost these features of wisdom in real life & propose some possible tests/interventions
August 6, 2025 at 5:34 PM
We still know little how to boost these features of wisdom in real life & propose some possible tests/interventions
3️⃣ But some shortcuts clash. (“Bird in hand” vs “Nothing ventured.”) Metacognition calls the tiebreaker by checking humility, future change, and stakeholder balance.
August 6, 2025 at 5:34 PM
3️⃣ But some shortcuts clash. (“Bird in hand” vs “Nothing ventured.”) Metacognition calls the tiebreaker by checking humility, future change, and stakeholder balance.
Wisdom & Culture Lab rocked geo-psych.com in Vancouver!
Peter Diep debuted insights on #IntellectualHumility in Africa
@maksimrudnev.com tracked shifting European values
Plus, sneak peek at futurescape.uwaterloo.ca with Google Arts
Exciting things ahead!
#SocialScience #Culture
Peter Diep debuted insights on #IntellectualHumility in Africa
@maksimrudnev.com tracked shifting European values
Plus, sneak peek at futurescape.uwaterloo.ca with Google Arts
Exciting things ahead!
#SocialScience #Culture
July 16, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Wisdom & Culture Lab rocked geo-psych.com in Vancouver!
Peter Diep debuted insights on #IntellectualHumility in Africa
@maksimrudnev.com tracked shifting European values
Plus, sneak peek at futurescape.uwaterloo.ca with Google Arts
Exciting things ahead!
#SocialScience #Culture
Peter Diep debuted insights on #IntellectualHumility in Africa
@maksimrudnev.com tracked shifting European values
Plus, sneak peek at futurescape.uwaterloo.ca with Google Arts
Exciting things ahead!
#SocialScience #Culture
with commentaries from @erincoo-psych.bsky.social
@ryanlei.bsky.social @rachelesh.bsky.social
@egarciaferres.bsky.social
@paulsegal.bsky.social
@maxmaier.bsky.social
@jolanda-jetten.bsky.social
@kellykirkland.bsky.social
@chrisklebl.bsky.social and others!
@ryanlei.bsky.social @rachelesh.bsky.social
@egarciaferres.bsky.social
@paulsegal.bsky.social
@maxmaier.bsky.social
@jolanda-jetten.bsky.social
@kellykirkland.bsky.social
@chrisklebl.bsky.social and others!
July 3, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Out today: Psychological Inquiry 36(2) 🌐 Open-access deep-dive into Beyond Identity by Sebben & Ullrich + 8 lively commentaries and a rejoinder. Skim the TOC image & join the discussion on #FundamentalInequalities #SocialChange 👉 www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/3... @simonesebben.bsky.social
July 3, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Out today: Psychological Inquiry 36(2) 🌐 Open-access deep-dive into Beyond Identity by Sebben & Ullrich + 8 lively commentaries and a rejoinder. Skim the TOC image & join the discussion on #FundamentalInequalities #SocialChange 👉 www.tandfonline.com/toc/hpli20/3... @simonesebben.bsky.social
Even for sorting abstract shapes, “What would a reasonable person choose?” triggers holistic grouping; “What would a rational person choose?” brings out single-rule logic (Fig 6).
July 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Even for sorting abstract shapes, “What would a reasonable person choose?” triggers holistic grouping; “What would a rational person choose?” brings out single-rule logic (Fig 6).
In hiring labs, asking managers to “pick the reasonable lawyer” flips choices toward holistic thinkers; the directive “pick the rational lawyer” tilts toward rule-followers. (See Fig 4)
July 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
In hiring labs, asking managers to “pick the reasonable lawyer” flips choices toward holistic thinkers; the directive “pick the rational lawyer” tilts toward rule-followers. (See Fig 4)
When the problem is messy (🌐 competing values, social stakes) we prefer reasonable minds—context-sensitive, empathetic, willing to balance trade-offs.
July 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
When the problem is messy (🌐 competing values, social stakes) we prefer reasonable minds—context-sensitive, empathetic, willing to balance trade-offs.
New paper 📄✨The reasonable, the rational, and the good. In press in Open Mind.
• Rationality = rule-based, utility-max, perfect for tight problems
• Reasonableness = socially aware, context-savvy, perfect for messy dilemmas
doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fc8n6_v3
#PsychSci #DecisionMaking #FolkWisdom
• Rationality = rule-based, utility-max, perfect for tight problems
• Reasonableness = socially aware, context-savvy, perfect for messy dilemmas
doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fc8n6_v3
#PsychSci #DecisionMaking #FolkWisdom
July 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
New paper 📄✨The reasonable, the rational, and the good. In press in Open Mind.
• Rationality = rule-based, utility-max, perfect for tight problems
• Reasonableness = socially aware, context-savvy, perfect for messy dilemmas
doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fc8n6_v3
#PsychSci #DecisionMaking #FolkWisdom
• Rationality = rule-based, utility-max, perfect for tight problems
• Reasonableness = socially aware, context-savvy, perfect for messy dilemmas
doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fc8n6_v3
#PsychSci #DecisionMaking #FolkWisdom
Amazing visit to Isabel Thielmann group &colleagues (Hannes Rusch Jean-Louis van Gelder) at the MPI Criminology and Law in #Freiburg to talk about folk standards of #rationality and #reasonableness. Such a fun, intellectually curious and hospitable group!
June 28, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Amazing visit to Isabel Thielmann group &colleagues (Hannes Rusch Jean-Louis van Gelder) at the MPI Criminology and Law in #Freiburg to talk about folk standards of #rationality and #reasonableness. Such a fun, intellectually curious and hospitable group!
Only one lever stands out: #selfdistancing. Thinking about the event from a third-person view today predicts more intellectual humility, perspective-taking & compromise three months later.
June 4, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Only one lever stands out: #selfdistancing. Thinking about the event from a third-person view today predicts more intellectual humility, perspective-taking & compromise three months later.
Dynamic network modelling shows a superior fit compared to g-style models or other alternatives. No central hub—metacognitive skills talk to each other.
June 4, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Dynamic network modelling shows a superior fit compared to g-style models or other alternatives. No central hub—metacognitive skills talk to each other.