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mark-graph.bsky.social
Mark Graph
@mark-graph.bsky.social
180 followers 140 following 82 posts
Data. Python. Economics. Social policy. Politics. Analysis. Australia. Not financial advice. Links tweets follows ≠ endorsement. https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/
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mark-graph.bsky.social
Rent price growth still on the high side. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
May 11, 2025 at 11:51 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
This smells a little odd to me. About a 1 in 69 chance that the set of all national 2pp polls since 1 April (inclusive) occurred by chance. Is it herding? Is it resampling? I don't know. But I don't like it. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
April 30, 2025 at 12:48 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 22, 2025 at 10:38 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 22, 2025 at 12:15 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 11, 2025 at 10:01 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 7, 2025 at 10:06 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
It looks like the punters are firming their views on the 2025 Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
April 5, 2025 at 10:28 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 3, 2025 at 11:25 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
April 1, 2025 at 11:34 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Some individual seat movements. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
April 1, 2025 at 11:34 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
The betting market still sees it as a very close race, #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 1, 2025 at 9:58 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Another way to view the betting market data - stacked win probabilities for each seat (data from this morning) - sorted by Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
March 31, 2025 at 5:50 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Apologies the previous charts had the labels a bit garbled.
March 30, 2025 at 4:26 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Any model needs to contend with a paucity of data in 5 of the 8 states/territories. It also needs to contend with a paucity of pollsters in many states. You can see this in the attached charts (using a monthly analytic frame).
March 30, 2025 at 2:01 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
A small movement on the betting market in the Coalition's favour. Time will tell if this is sustained. Coalition: $1.50. Labor $2.62. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
February 24, 2025 at 8:13 PM
mark-graph.bsky.social
The betting market continues its wondrous dance. The Coalition is on $1.53. Labor is on $2.50 to win. After adjusting for the bookmaker's overround, punters give the Coalition a 61.4% probability of winning the next election #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
February 16, 2025 at 6:07 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Betting market and polling update for mid-Februart #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/02/bett...
February 14, 2025 at 3:05 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
In the minds of the punters, we are increasingly seeing a Coalition win next election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon (Caveat: sometimes the punters get it wrong).
February 7, 2025 at 12:31 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Looks like a 25 basis point cut to the RBA cash rate is on the table for February. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 29, 2025 at 1:06 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
January 27, 2025 at 6:57 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
I am sure someone was wondering how the new monthly ABS Household spending indicator compares with the quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure in the National Accounts. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 26, 2025 at 1:52 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
Second move in support of the Coalition at
SportsBet this week. Labor $2.25 - Coalition $1.61 - Other $81.00

Note: gaps in these charts are those days where I did not capture betting odds.

#auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 24, 2025 at 2:59 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
A small movement on the betting market: Coalition $1.66 - Labor $2.20 - Other $81.00

Note: Gaps in these charts are days when I did not capture odds.

#auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 22, 2025 at 2:20 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
The polls are not being favourable to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 20, 2025 at 3:04 AM
mark-graph.bsky.social
A quick look at the sustained growth in the number of hours worked in the non-market sector. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
January 18, 2025 at 8:42 PM