Mark Graph
@mark-graph.bsky.social
Data. Python. Economics. Social policy. Politics. Analysis. Australia. Not financial advice. Links tweets follows ≠ endorsement. https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/
May 11, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Reposted by Mark Graph
Budget Tree one week out from traditional budget day
May 6, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Budget Tree one week out from traditional budget day
Some light reading while you wait in the queue to vote. Two posts this morning:
(1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
(2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
#ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
(1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
(2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
#ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Election day - polls
There are two posts this morning. This is the polls post, and separately there is a betting market update . Two-party preferred There is an ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
May 3, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Some light reading while you wait in the queue to vote. Two posts this morning:
(1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
(2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
#ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
(1) Polls - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
(2) Betting Market - marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/elec...
#ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
Updated aggregation and betting market charts - but the same story. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
Day 36 - 2025 Federal Election
The election is tomorrow! Today we have two more polls: Freshwater strategy 51.5/48.5 to Labor, and DemosAU 51/49 to Labor. The aggregation...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
May 1, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Updated aggregation and betting market charts - but the same story. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
Reposted by Mark Graph
Full post from Mark Graph on potential herding of opinion polls, D-minus 2 till voting ends #auspol #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
May 1, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Full post from Mark Graph on potential herding of opinion polls, D-minus 2 till voting ends #auspol #ausvotes marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/05/day-...
Latest Newspoll (52/48 Labor) suggests we are looking at a repeat of the last election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #ausvotes
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 32 - 2025 Federal Election
Today we have a new Newspoll (52/48) in Labor's favour. The Bayesian aggregation is unchanged. We are looking at a result much like the prev...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 27, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Latest Newspoll (52/48 Labor) suggests we are looking at a repeat of the last election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon #ausvotes
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
My analysis on how the Trump Trade Wars will unfold.
markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-t...
#usa #trump #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-t...
#usa #trump #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
US Trade Wars
Analysis Trump is ideologically committed to tariffs, and short of disaster, is likely to end up with an increased tariff regime at the end ...
markthegraph.blogspot.com
April 26, 2025 at 3:12 AM
A big movement to Labor in electorate betting. Labor is favourite in 77 seats (majority govt). Most-likely Parliament outcome is Labor on 72 seats (minority govt). #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 30 - 2025 Federal Election
At this point everyone expects Labor to form government following the election. The only question is whether it will be majority or minority...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 26, 2025 at 2:34 AM
A big movement to Labor in electorate betting. Labor is favourite in 77 seats (majority govt). Most-likely Parliament outcome is Labor on 72 seats (minority govt). #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 22, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com
Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 22, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour. My aggregation of pollster Labor 2pp estimates is 51.9 per cent. If the polls are right, the election result will be close to the previous election. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 25 - 2025 Federal Election
We have another Newspoll , in which Labor has a two-party preferred (2pp) vote share of 52 per cent (which is the same result as the previou...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 21, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour. My aggregation of pollster Labor 2pp estimates is 51.9 per cent. If the polls are right, the election result will be close to the previous election. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Election outcome odds and probabilities for every seat. Huge betting market update. More than 300 charts. It's all half price it's all got to go. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 23 - 2025 Federal Election
I have been refining my code for the individual seats market at Sportsbet.com.au . Before we get to the charts for every seat, let me take y...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 18, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Election outcome odds and probabilities for every seat. Huge betting market update. More than 300 charts. It's all half price it's all got to go. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Polls and the betting markets continue to move in Labor's favour. #ausvote #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 20 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday we had an Essential poll with Labor on 50 per cent 2pp, the Coalition on 45 per cent and 5 per cent undecided (which I make as 52....
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 15, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Polls and the betting markets continue to move in Labor's favour. #ausvote #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
t is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 19 - 2025 Federal Election
It is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 14, 2025 at 11:17 PM
t is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 11, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Updated poll aggregation charts following today's YpuGov (which had Labor 2pp at 52.5%). #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 15 - 2025 Federal Election
Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 10, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Updated poll aggregation charts following today's YpuGov (which had Labor 2pp at 52.5%). #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Complete set of charts for the individual seats market #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 13 - 2025 Federal Election
Today, let's look the complete set of charts from the individual seats market. Overall, we can see another net seat with Labor in the lead. ...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 8, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Complete set of charts for the individual seats market #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 7, 2025 at 10:06 PM
(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Reposted by Mark Graph
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 6, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election
Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
April 6, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Updated Poll aggregations - Labor in front - but minority government the most likely outcome. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 3, 2025 at 11:25 PM
The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...
April 1, 2025 at 11:34 PM