Malcolm Certain
@malcolmcertain.com
Undergraduate at Brown University. Interested in quantitative methods in economics and public policy.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Wanna see something cool?
At the Grammy's in 1976, Ella Fitzgerald and Mel Torme explained what jazz is.
The result? The crowd losing its mind. 🔥
At the Grammy's in 1976, Ella Fitzgerald and Mel Torme explained what jazz is.
The result? The crowd losing its mind. 🔥
May 4, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Wanna see something cool?
At the Grammy's in 1976, Ella Fitzgerald and Mel Torme explained what jazz is.
The result? The crowd losing its mind. 🔥
At the Grammy's in 1976, Ella Fitzgerald and Mel Torme explained what jazz is.
The result? The crowd losing its mind. 🔥
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
“I think that…most researchers think of statistical tests as a kind of annoying paperwork, a set of forms they need to fill out in order to get their work published… They feel they already know the truth…so then they find whatever p-values are necessary to satisfy the reviewers.”
-Gelman
-Gelman
April 17, 2025 at 11:47 PM
“I think that…most researchers think of statistical tests as a kind of annoying paperwork, a set of forms they need to fill out in order to get their work published… They feel they already know the truth…so then they find whatever p-values are necessary to satisfy the reviewers.”
-Gelman
-Gelman
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Note to fellow journos: If only one "economist" agrees w Trump tariffs—as evidenced by fact that this particular "economist" is now being interviewed and cited everywhere as only "expert" willing to publicly defend them—consider confirming that he's actually an "economist." Check CVs, for example.
April 14, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Note to fellow journos: If only one "economist" agrees w Trump tariffs—as evidenced by fact that this particular "economist" is now being interviewed and cited everywhere as only "expert" willing to publicly defend them—consider confirming that he's actually an "economist." Check CVs, for example.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Federal spending is *up* under Trump according to the Wall Street Journal. Chaos is not actually the same as cost savings.
Actual budgeting is a kind of actual policy-making and takes real work spread over real time. Running around breaking stuff isn't that.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Actual budgeting is a kind of actual policy-making and takes real work spread over real time. Running around breaking stuff isn't that.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
April 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Federal spending is *up* under Trump according to the Wall Street Journal. Chaos is not actually the same as cost savings.
Actual budgeting is a kind of actual policy-making and takes real work spread over real time. Running around breaking stuff isn't that.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Actual budgeting is a kind of actual policy-making and takes real work spread over real time. Running around breaking stuff isn't that.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Important legal victory: a Texas judge has barred illegal deportations of Venezuelans to El Salvador. SCOTUS ruling that these cases must be tried in Texas does not mean the legal battle is lost.
apnews.com/live/donald-...
Judge bars US government from deporting 5 Venezuelans
apnews.com/live/donald-...
Judge bars US government from deporting 5 Venezuelans
Live updates: Trump promotes investing in the US as his new round of tariffs go into effect
A number of sweeping new taxes on goods from other countries are already here — and more took effect on Wednesday. Trump has promised higher rates for his latest and most severe volley of duties, whic...
https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-4-9-2025#00000196-1b50-d7a4-ab96-bbdd12210000?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=share <br>Judge
April 9, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Important legal victory: a Texas judge has barred illegal deportations of Venezuelans to El Salvador. SCOTUS ruling that these cases must be tried in Texas does not mean the legal battle is lost.
apnews.com/live/donald-...
Judge bars US government from deporting 5 Venezuelans
apnews.com/live/donald-...
Judge bars US government from deporting 5 Venezuelans
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
We are speedrunning the Declaration of Independence, folks.
![[text from the Declaration of Independence]
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qvyj3hxm4opuuddzrhcbiio6/bafkreiahlp7acp6y2hakkfu5h66vg2ifckdo6b7fqaebenki3qoxswp73e@jpeg)
April 4, 2025 at 11:11 PM
We are speedrunning the Declaration of Independence, folks.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
I may be tired and a little hoarse, but as I said again and again on the Senate floor, this is a moment where we cannot afford to be silent, when we must speak up.
April 2, 2025 at 1:09 AM
I may be tired and a little hoarse, but as I said again and again on the Senate floor, this is a moment where we cannot afford to be silent, when we must speak up.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Hey folks! If you're in Florida and Wisconsin today, GET OUT AND VOTE!
April 1, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Hey folks! If you're in Florida and Wisconsin today, GET OUT AND VOTE!
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
1/ On April 5, there are nationwide protests happening literally everywhere in the US. Find more details here: handsoff2025.com
March 27, 2025 at 10:32 PM
1/ On April 5, there are nationwide protests happening literally everywhere in the US. Find more details here: handsoff2025.com
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
The Excellence Gap. That is the topic of a new study that we just published in
@nature.com.
You can download for free here:
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...
@nature.com.
You can download for free here:
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...
Measuring racial educational disparities over time amongst t
Educational disparities remain a key contributor to increasing social and wealth inequalities. To address this, researchers and policymakers have focused on average differences between racial groups o
ideas.repec.org
March 30, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The Excellence Gap. That is the topic of a new study that we just published in
@nature.com.
You can download for free here:
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...
@nature.com.
You can download for free here:
ideas.repec.org/p/feb/natura...
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Imagine any other world leader saying this about another country.
March 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Imagine any other world leader saying this about another country.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
We have had nearly two decades of panic about Free Speech on Campus and not a single case, not even the ones they made up, were as bad as what's happening now
This is the text of the email just sent to hundreds of international students telling them that their visas have been revoked due to activism or social media posts.
March 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
We have had nearly two decades of panic about Free Speech on Campus and not a single case, not even the ones they made up, were as bad as what's happening now
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Amazing to see how much it’s a settled assumption—not even worth questioning—that public opinion is a static exogenous force that politicians must optimize around.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/o...
Opinion | The Democrats Are in Denial About 2024
Party leaders have embraced convenient excuses. This perilous political moment requires more self-reflection and honesty.
www.nytimes.com
March 29, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Amazing to see how much it’s a settled assumption—not even worth questioning—that public opinion is a static exogenous force that politicians must optimize around.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/o...
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
don't do "drumpf" and "muskrat" shit in my menchies
twee bullshit
twee bullshit
March 29, 2025 at 12:56 AM
don't do "drumpf" and "muskrat" shit in my menchies
twee bullshit
twee bullshit
Make a nonsense model, get a nonsense finding. Citing Sam Altman as an "expert" is not serious academic research.
Around 4 percent of GDP was spent to mitigate deaths from Covid-19; AI's existential risk is arguably at least as large, from Charles I. Jones https://www.nber.org/papers/w33602
March 29, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Make a nonsense model, get a nonsense finding. Citing Sam Altman as an "expert" is not serious academic research.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Never forget, a 13-year study found that protected bike-lanes led to a drastic decline in fatalities for all road users.
ALL ROAD USERS.
And painted bike-lanes? No safety improvement at all.
For sharrows, it’s actually safer to NOT have them.
Via @usa.streetsblog.org @nyc.streetsblog.org
ALL ROAD USERS.
And painted bike-lanes? No safety improvement at all.
For sharrows, it’s actually safer to NOT have them.
Via @usa.streetsblog.org @nyc.streetsblog.org
Separated Bike Lanes Means Safer Streets, Study Says — Streetsblog USA
Cities that build protected lanes for cyclists end up with safer roads for people on bikes and people in cars and on foot, a new study of 12 large metropolises revealed Wednesday.
usa.streetsblog.org
March 28, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Never forget, a 13-year study found that protected bike-lanes led to a drastic decline in fatalities for all road users.
ALL ROAD USERS.
And painted bike-lanes? No safety improvement at all.
For sharrows, it’s actually safer to NOT have them.
Via @usa.streetsblog.org @nyc.streetsblog.org
ALL ROAD USERS.
And painted bike-lanes? No safety improvement at all.
For sharrows, it’s actually safer to NOT have them.
Via @usa.streetsblog.org @nyc.streetsblog.org
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris in 2024.
Among cancellations with election data available, 92.9% and 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% and 92.4% of total dollar amounts.
Among cancellations with election data available, 92.9% and 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% and 92.4% of total dollar amounts.
March 23, 2025 at 1:38 PM
DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris in 2024.
Among cancellations with election data available, 92.9% and 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% and 92.4% of total dollar amounts.
Among cancellations with election data available, 92.9% and 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% and 92.4% of total dollar amounts.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
March 28, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
#RDDers: check it out.
"A Partial Linear Estimator for Small Study Regression Discontinuity Designs"
RDDs can lack statistical power.
Standard approaches focus on large N scenarios.
This paper develops a partial linear estimator for low power RDDs. This estimator outperforms leading estimators.
"A Partial Linear Estimator for Small Study Regression Discontinuity Designs"
RDDs can lack statistical power.
Standard approaches focus on large N scenarios.
This paper develops a partial linear estimator for low power RDDs. This estimator outperforms leading estimators.
March 26, 2025 at 3:59 PM
#RDDers: check it out.
"A Partial Linear Estimator for Small Study Regression Discontinuity Designs"
RDDs can lack statistical power.
Standard approaches focus on large N scenarios.
This paper develops a partial linear estimator for low power RDDs. This estimator outperforms leading estimators.
"A Partial Linear Estimator for Small Study Regression Discontinuity Designs"
RDDs can lack statistical power.
Standard approaches focus on large N scenarios.
This paper develops a partial linear estimator for low power RDDs. This estimator outperforms leading estimators.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
The most obvious lesson to draw from the leaked Signal chat is that these people really are morons. It's not a public act, it's not a schtick, there's not some secret back room where they drop the facade. They are genuinely stupid, incompetent people.
March 25, 2025 at 7:21 PM
The most obvious lesson to draw from the leaked Signal chat is that these people really are morons. It's not a public act, it's not a schtick, there's not some secret back room where they drop the facade. They are genuinely stupid, incompetent people.
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Today, on behalf of faculty represented by @aaup.bsky.social and @aftunion.bsky.social, we filed a lawsuit w/Altshuler Berzon challenging the Trump admin’s unlawful termination of $400m in funding for vital scientific & public health research at Columbia Univ.
protectdemocracy.org/work/stoppin...
protectdemocracy.org/work/stoppin...
Stopping the Trump administration’s use of funding cuts to coerce speech restrictions at universities - Protect Democracy
Protect Democracy is challenging the illegal access to sensitive personal information of millions of Americans by representatives of “DOGE”.
protectdemocracy.org
March 25, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Today, on behalf of faculty represented by @aaup.bsky.social and @aftunion.bsky.social, we filed a lawsuit w/Altshuler Berzon challenging the Trump admin’s unlawful termination of $400m in funding for vital scientific & public health research at Columbia Univ.
protectdemocracy.org/work/stoppin...
protectdemocracy.org/work/stoppin...
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
the speed at which these guys have broken everything has given a lot of folks who should know better the impression that they are an unstoppable force and the only option is to negotiate the terms of surrender
just because the clown car goes very fast does not mean it isn’t full of clowns
just because the clown car goes very fast does not mean it isn’t full of clowns
Whatever the immediate fallout of the scandal, what is going to stick around is the impression it gives, of hapless idiots doing ridiculous things. And I think that seriously reduces the appeal of capitulating to these jokers.
March 25, 2025 at 3:58 PM
the speed at which these guys have broken everything has given a lot of folks who should know better the impression that they are an unstoppable force and the only option is to negotiate the terms of surrender
just because the clown car goes very fast does not mean it isn’t full of clowns
just because the clown car goes very fast does not mean it isn’t full of clowns
Reposted by Malcolm Certain
Yes, this is me. As you can tell, I was not having it! I refuse to be a nice old lady(or granny, they call me). We must do everything we can to stand up!
March 24, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Yes, this is me. As you can tell, I was not having it! I refuse to be a nice old lady(or granny, they call me). We must do everything we can to stand up!