Kyle Kondik
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kkondik.bsky.social
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik.bsky.social
6.4K followers 190 following 29 posts
American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating changes in Virginia, Iowa and Maine.
(@kkondik.bsky.social and @jmilescoleman.bsky.social, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250905-top...
September 5, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Trump approval rating down to 42% amid...

Displeasure with economy — public wants focus on prices, not tariffs
Disapproval of Big Beautiful Bill — most say wealthy benefit
Declining deportation marks — most say dangerous criminals not being prioritized

Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

1/
July 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
docjanicel.bsky.social
@kkondik.bsky.social writes an excellent companion piece for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Extra meaningful because it compares the Catalist findings as well.
June 26, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
Digging into a New 2024 Postmortem: Findings from Pew’s Validated Voter Study.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250627-top...
June 27, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
How the New @catalist.bsky.social Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250522-top...
May 22, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
aedwardslevy.bsky.social
Excited to share some tips for writing about polls for anyone coming in cold to the subject!

(Pictured: a thing on which pollsters are probably not calling you these days).
March 24, 2025 at 1:06 PM
kkondik.bsky.social
Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia - Sabato's Crystal Ball
The New Hampshire Senate race gets a little more competitive with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) retirement; in Virginia, Democrats' 2024 coalition was more efficient than it was in some past years.
centerforpolitics.org
March 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
The 2026 midterm is still more than a year and a half away. Yet there are a few things we can already predict about it with at least a reasonable amount of confidence.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250313-top...
March 13, 2025 at 10:29 PM
kkondik.bsky.social
Crystal Ball -- Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms: Smaller turnout, an older/whiter/more educated electorate, and the non-presidential party typically improving its share of the overall House vote centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.
centerforpolitics.org
March 12, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250306-top...
March 7, 2025 at 12:48 AM
kkondik.bsky.social
Crystal Ball: Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.
centerforpolitics.org
March 6, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
bfschaffner.bsky.social
i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
February 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
kkondik.bsky.social
NEW Crystal Ball: @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on House district presidential voting in Trump's three elections. All but 28 districts (shown in the map) voted the same way in all 3 elections based on the current lines centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
February 27, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
President Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250221-top...
February 22, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
donmoyn.bsky.social
This is like Senators asking for Trump to release funding for their pet projects. When you campaigned for a personalist presidency you have turned yourself into a beggar seeking the King’s favor rather than a citizen who can be confident of equal treatment for all.
February 20, 2025 at 12:15 PM
kkondik.bsky.social
NEW Crystal Ball -- Trump's approval a month in

Still net positive but has weakened a bit. He's also overperforming with some Democratic-leaning groups -- reasonable to wonder whether that will continue

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain - Sabato's Crystal Ball
As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven mo...
centerforpolitics.org
February 20, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
kathleenweldon.bsky.social
I’m on my third presidential library archive visit, and still I cannot get over that anyone, everyone, can access these historical documents. It’s wonderful.

Also, this was the first document in the first folder I opened.
Memo from Hates, polling results from Lou Harris on Vietnam, with all-caps statement: HE MADE ME SWEAR THERE WOULD BE NO RELEASE and handwritten note “off-record, protect Harris.”
February 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
opiniontoday.bsky.social
Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Senate Majority.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250213-top...
February 14, 2025 at 12:39 AM
kkondik.bsky.social
NEW Crystal Ball Senate ratings, including analysis of midterm Senate rhythms and setting expectations. Rs heavily favored to hold majority. Ratings updated to reflect Tina Smith's retirement earlier today centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
February 13, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
joshchafetz.bsky.social
A good piece at Fox News about impoundment (in which I'm quoted). We need more like this in outlets that are read by Republicans. www.foxnews.com/politics/con...
'Constitutional crisis': The Impoundment Control Act takes center stage after Russell Vought's confirmation
Here's a look at what's up for debate regarding government spending — and what changes could emerge during the Trump administration.
www.foxnews.com
February 11, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
davidkarol.bsky.social
The Separation of Powers system was NOT built for parties, but it sort of worked as long parties weren't THAT cohesive. It's been under pressure for years. Now for the first time a party's President can withhold renomination from legislators who don't vote as they're told and it doesn't work.
fredmkaplan.bsky.social Fred Kaplan @fredmkaplan.bsky.social · Feb 4
Unbelievable how many Republicans are rolling over for nominees that, in any other time, would have been laughed out of town, not even considered for a hearing, much less a vote.
February 4, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
joshhuder.bsky.social
No matter how much a member may like shuttering a specific agency or "pausing" to "review" it's work, it blatantly violates congressional authority and weakens their control of future presidents.

It is the worst kind of abdication of power and precedent imaginable.
February 4, 2025 at 3:42 PM
kkondik.bsky.social
Raw votes in IA Sen District 35, 2022 midterm -- a little under 24k votes, R wins by 22 pts

Turnout in last night's special -- roughly 9,300, D wins by roughly 3.5 pts

obviously great result for Ds but also much lower turnout than even a midterm, common in these kinds of races
January 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
jonmladd.bsky.social
I don't disagree with this change. But people shouldn't react to retirements like it's 1976. The incumbency advantage is only about 1-2% on average in recent years. National conditions matter much more. If Dems can't win in MI in 2026 with a less well-known candidate, the party has bigger problems.
kkondik.bsky.social Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · Jan 28
We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.
January 28, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Reposted by Kyle Kondik
davidkarol.bsky.social
Peters will be 68 at the end of his term. Others these days are only elected to the Senate in their 60s.
kkondik.bsky.social Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · Jan 28
We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.
January 28, 2025 at 3:08 PM