@kiheiakole.bsky.social
Reposted
The S&P 500 is at an all-time high, while the median S&P 500 stock is in an 11.5% drawdown.
Data from @barchart
Data from @barchart
December 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The S&P 500 is at an all-time high, while the median S&P 500 stock is in an 11.5% drawdown.
Data from @barchart
Data from @barchart
Reposted
The average bear market lasts 14 months and is followed by a 70-month bull market. JPMAM
December 26, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The average bear market lasts 14 months and is followed by a 70-month bull market. JPMAM
Reposted
“Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets, this one appears to be in its final innings.” www.linkedin.com/pulse/outloo...
December 26, 2025 at 4:05 PM
“Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets, this one appears to be in its final innings.” www.linkedin.com/pulse/outloo...
Reposted
I see several of my pals chatting up the break in COST.
I have a weird view of charts: if they break a well watched support level and can recapture that level, the stock tends to do quite well cuz we've gotten rid of the weak holders.
So can it recapture?
@conorsen.bsky.social @cavandy.bsky.social
I have a weird view of charts: if they break a well watched support level and can recapture that level, the stock tends to do quite well cuz we've gotten rid of the weak holders.
So can it recapture?
@conorsen.bsky.social @cavandy.bsky.social
December 16, 2025 at 5:04 PM
I see several of my pals chatting up the break in COST.
I have a weird view of charts: if they break a well watched support level and can recapture that level, the stock tends to do quite well cuz we've gotten rid of the weak holders.
So can it recapture?
@conorsen.bsky.social @cavandy.bsky.social
I have a weird view of charts: if they break a well watched support level and can recapture that level, the stock tends to do quite well cuz we've gotten rid of the weak holders.
So can it recapture?
@conorsen.bsky.social @cavandy.bsky.social
Reposted
Bob Dylan attempts to explain Willie Nelson in The New Yorker's profile of Willie: www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
December 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Bob Dylan attempts to explain Willie Nelson in The New Yorker's profile of Willie: www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
Reposted
The average restaurant stock is down rather sharply YTD (best +24%, worst -79%) $EATZ
Several -34% to -54%
Several -34% to -54%
December 21, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The average restaurant stock is down rather sharply YTD (best +24%, worst -79%) $EATZ
Several -34% to -54%
Several -34% to -54%
Reposted
Santa Claus Watch
The Santa Claus rally is a statistically observable window—the final seven trading days of the year—that has historically outperformed random periods. Since 1950, this year-end stretch has averaged gains of roughly 1.3% to 1.4%.
Dec 24-Jan 5 this go-round.
The Santa Claus rally is a statistically observable window—the final seven trading days of the year—that has historically outperformed random periods. Since 1950, this year-end stretch has averaged gains of roughly 1.3% to 1.4%.
Dec 24-Jan 5 this go-round.
December 19, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Santa Claus Watch
The Santa Claus rally is a statistically observable window—the final seven trading days of the year—that has historically outperformed random periods. Since 1950, this year-end stretch has averaged gains of roughly 1.3% to 1.4%.
Dec 24-Jan 5 this go-round.
The Santa Claus rally is a statistically observable window—the final seven trading days of the year—that has historically outperformed random periods. Since 1950, this year-end stretch has averaged gains of roughly 1.3% to 1.4%.
Dec 24-Jan 5 this go-round.
Reposted
$NVDA bounced back this week a bit, $AVGO still in jail
December 19, 2025 at 8:53 PM
$NVDA bounced back this week a bit, $AVGO still in jail
Reposted
Price changes over last year (November CPI report)
Fuel Oil: +11.3%
Gas Utilities: +9.1%
Electricity: +6.9%
Food away from home: +3.7%
Used Cars: +3.6%
Medical Care: +3.3%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +1.9%
Transportation: +1.7%
Gasoline: +0.9%
New Cars: +0.6%
Fuel Oil: +11.3%
Gas Utilities: +9.1%
Electricity: +6.9%
Food away from home: +3.7%
Used Cars: +3.6%
Medical Care: +3.3%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +1.9%
Transportation: +1.7%
Gasoline: +0.9%
New Cars: +0.6%
December 18, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Price changes over last year (November CPI report)
Fuel Oil: +11.3%
Gas Utilities: +9.1%
Electricity: +6.9%
Food away from home: +3.7%
Used Cars: +3.6%
Medical Care: +3.3%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +1.9%
Transportation: +1.7%
Gasoline: +0.9%
New Cars: +0.6%
Fuel Oil: +11.3%
Gas Utilities: +9.1%
Electricity: +6.9%
Food away from home: +3.7%
Used Cars: +3.6%
Medical Care: +3.3%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.7%
Food at home: +1.9%
Transportation: +1.7%
Gasoline: +0.9%
New Cars: +0.6%
Reposted
Correct. Discharge Petition is very much alive.
Timing: now that it has 218 signatures, it has to "ripen" for 7 legislative days, then any member who signed the DP can call it up. Then Johnson has 2 legislative days to schedule a vote.
Which still means January 2026 at earliest, around Jan 13-15
Timing: now that it has 218 signatures, it has to "ripen" for 7 legislative days, then any member who signed the DP can call it up. Then Johnson has 2 legislative days to schedule a vote.
Which still means January 2026 at earliest, around Jan 13-15
December 17, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Correct. Discharge Petition is very much alive.
Timing: now that it has 218 signatures, it has to "ripen" for 7 legislative days, then any member who signed the DP can call it up. Then Johnson has 2 legislative days to schedule a vote.
Which still means January 2026 at earliest, around Jan 13-15
Timing: now that it has 218 signatures, it has to "ripen" for 7 legislative days, then any member who signed the DP can call it up. Then Johnson has 2 legislative days to schedule a vote.
Which still means January 2026 at earliest, around Jan 13-15
Reposted
One has to admit that whatever is going on here, there is something truly astonishing about it
December 17, 2025 at 6:20 AM
One has to admit that whatever is going on here, there is something truly astonishing about it
Reposted
‘Currently, FOMC members foresee upside risks to the unemployment rate and inflation. In other words, the Fed continues to forecast stagflation and is concerned that we in 2026 may experience rising inflation and rising unemployment at the same time.’ www.apolloacademy.com/fed-sees-sta...
Fed Sees Stagflation as Biggest Risk in 2026 - Apollo Academy
When FOMC members produce their forecasts ahead of Fed meetings, they are also asked how they view the risks to...
www.apolloacademy.com
December 17, 2025 at 3:04 PM
‘Currently, FOMC members foresee upside risks to the unemployment rate and inflation. In other words, the Fed continues to forecast stagflation and is concerned that we in 2026 may experience rising inflation and rising unemployment at the same time.’ www.apolloacademy.com/fed-sees-sta...
Reposted
Margin Debt increased +42% in the past 7 months. Investors went all-in.
This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time.
The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007
This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time.
The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007
December 17, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Margin Debt increased +42% in the past 7 months. Investors went all-in.
This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time.
The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007
This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time.
The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007
Reposted
Meanwhile, hotels through the roof.. $HLT $MAR 52wk highs
December 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Meanwhile, hotels through the roof.. $HLT $MAR 52wk highs
Reposted
Midterm years can be tricky $SPY @kevrgordon @LizAnnSonders
December 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Midterm years can be tricky $SPY @kevrgordon @LizAnnSonders
Reposted
Big tech has borrowed more in the current 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 (so far) than in any full 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 in history, other than 2017 from @DuncanLamont2
December 15, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Big tech has borrowed more in the current 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 (so far) than in any full 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 in history, other than 2017 from @DuncanLamont2
Reposted
Upcoming economic data (if you are confused and unsure like me) GS
December 15, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Upcoming economic data (if you are confused and unsure like me) GS
Reposted
The results are in and folks lean UP for the 9th straight week. In the last 8 weeks the S&P is up 35 points.
This 9 week stretch matches 2023 and 2024 year end votes as well.
Guess you guys are all seasonality folks.
Thanks for participating!
This 9 week stretch matches 2023 and 2024 year end votes as well.
Guess you guys are all seasonality folks.
Thanks for participating!
December 13, 2025 at 7:47 PM
The results are in and folks lean UP for the 9th straight week. In the last 8 weeks the S&P is up 35 points.
This 9 week stretch matches 2023 and 2024 year end votes as well.
Guess you guys are all seasonality folks.
Thanks for participating!
This 9 week stretch matches 2023 and 2024 year end votes as well.
Guess you guys are all seasonality folks.
Thanks for participating!
Reposted
EXCLUSIVE: Federal tax prosecutions fell to their lowest level in decades this year, declining more than 27% from the year before as the Trump administration cut the ranks of attorneys and agents who pursue those cases, a Reuters examination has found.
www.reuters.com/world/tax-pr...
www.reuters.com/world/tax-pr...
December 10, 2025 at 11:38 AM
EXCLUSIVE: Federal tax prosecutions fell to their lowest level in decades this year, declining more than 27% from the year before as the Trump administration cut the ranks of attorneys and agents who pursue those cases, a Reuters examination has found.
www.reuters.com/world/tax-pr...
www.reuters.com/world/tax-pr...
Reposted
GS: The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, META) account for 36% of S&P 500 market cap and 26% of earnings and should contribute 46% of index EPS growth in 2026.
December 12, 2025 at 12:17 AM
GS: The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, META) account for 36% of S&P 500 market cap and 26% of earnings and should contribute 46% of index EPS growth in 2026.
Reposted
“.. When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026.”
(via OptionGeek)
(via OptionGeek)
December 10, 2025 at 3:31 PM
“.. When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026.”
(via OptionGeek)
(via OptionGeek)
Reposted
‘Fed easing is historically and correctly considered favorable for the stock market outlook. Fed easing, however, is not favorable for the stock market in scenarios when high valuations are unwinding.’ www.investech.com/subscriber-l...
December 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
‘Fed easing is historically and correctly considered favorable for the stock market outlook. Fed easing, however, is not favorable for the stock market in scenarios when high valuations are unwinding.’ www.investech.com/subscriber-l...
Reposted
‘The foundation supporting U.S. corporate profits and equity valuations has weakened, leaving the market increasingly fragile.’ www.researchaffiliates.com/publications...
Financialization: How Deficits Inflate Profits and Equity Valuations | Research Affiliates
Chronic fiscal deficits stimulate consumption and flow into corporate profits that are then recycled into price-indifferent passive funds, inflating market valuations.
www.researchaffiliates.com
December 9, 2025 at 4:36 PM
‘The foundation supporting U.S. corporate profits and equity valuations has weakened, leaving the market increasingly fragile.’ www.researchaffiliates.com/publications...
Reposted
‘The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the share of the labor force that quit their jobs in October was the lowest in more than a decade, aside from the pandemic period.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
December 9, 2025 at 5:03 PM
‘The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the share of the labor force that quit their jobs in October was the lowest in more than a decade, aside from the pandemic period.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
Reposted
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
December 9, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!