David Keller, CMT
@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only.
A much steadier tone in the market today as volatility eased and tech regained its lead.
I’m diving into the mailbag to talk about year-end seasonality and how I’m managing risk into 2026.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/da6E4g8hZq8
I’m diving into the mailbag to talk about year-end seasonality and how I’m managing risk into 2026.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/da6E4g8hZq8
Mailbag Friday: Tech Rebounds, Volatility Cools, and What the Charts Say Next
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 19, 2025 at 11:30 PM
A much steadier tone in the market today as volatility eased and tech regained its lead.
I’m diving into the mailbag to talk about year-end seasonality and how I’m managing risk into 2026.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/da6E4g8hZq8
I’m diving into the mailbag to talk about year-end seasonality and how I’m managing risk into 2026.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/da6E4g8hZq8
As we close out 2025, it’s a great time to reflect—not just on returns, but on lessons.
I joined Grayson Roze on StockCharts TV to discuss market psychology, rotation, and how I’m thinking about 2026.
Happy Holidays! 🎄❄️📈 youtu.be/XLLaKxabdGc
I joined Grayson Roze on StockCharts TV to discuss market psychology, rotation, and how I’m thinking about 2026.
Happy Holidays! 🎄❄️📈 youtu.be/XLLaKxabdGc
2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: Trends, Psychology, and What Comes Next
YouTube video by StockCharts TV
youtu.be
December 19, 2025 at 7:17 PM
As we close out 2025, it’s a great time to reflect—not just on returns, but on lessons.
I joined Grayson Roze on StockCharts TV to discuss market psychology, rotation, and how I’m thinking about 2026.
Happy Holidays! 🎄❄️📈 youtu.be/XLLaKxabdGc
I joined Grayson Roze on StockCharts TV to discuss market psychology, rotation, and how I’m thinking about 2026.
Happy Holidays! 🎄❄️📈 youtu.be/XLLaKxabdGc
Markets gapped higher today, but follow-through was limited. Some encouraging signs, some reasons for caution. I walk through what mattered most on today’s CHART THIS: youtu.be/3cd2cHO1_oo
Markets Gap Higher but Stall Out | Inflation Data, Rotation & Key Levels | CHART THIS (Dec 18)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 18, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Markets gapped higher today, but follow-through was limited. Some encouraging signs, some reasons for caution. I walk through what mattered most on today’s CHART THIS: youtu.be/3cd2cHO1_oo
Today felt different. Tech leadership weakened, volatility picked up, and the market tone shifted. Still some good charts, but more caution is warranted.
youtu.be/A87Ud4azHFQ
youtu.be/A87Ud4azHFQ
Risk-Off Rotation Hits Tech as AI Trade Unwinds | CHART THIS with Dave Keller (Dec 17, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 17, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Today felt different. Tech leadership weakened, volatility picked up, and the market tone shifted. Still some good charts, but more caution is warranted.
youtu.be/A87Ud4azHFQ
youtu.be/A87Ud4azHFQ
Markets improved into the close, but the message stayed mixed. S&P recovered, NASDAQ finished green, breadth was weak, and energy rolled over as crude broke lower.
Full CHART THIS recap: youtu.be/phG9Ej_ofZo
Full CHART THIS recap: youtu.be/phG9Ej_ofZo
Choppy Markets, Energy Breakdown, and Tech Stabilizes | CHART THIS with Dave Keller (Dec 16)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 16, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Markets improved into the close, but the message stayed mixed. S&P recovered, NASDAQ finished green, breadth was weak, and energy rolled over as crude broke lower.
Full CHART THIS recap: youtu.be/phG9Ej_ofZo
Full CHART THIS recap: youtu.be/phG9Ej_ofZo
I’m focusing on “change of character”—how a stock shifts from distribution to accumulation. Using Mastercard and Carnival, I show the signals I rely on: higher highs/lows, reclaiming moving averages, and RSI pushing above 60.
youtu.be/SLUs175flLU
youtu.be/SLUs175flLU
Change of Character Spotting the Shift From Downtrend to Uptrend Mastercard & Carnival
YouTube video by StockCharts TV
youtu.be
December 16, 2025 at 4:49 PM
I’m focusing on “change of character”—how a stock shifts from distribution to accumulation. Using Mastercard and Carnival, I show the signals I rely on: higher highs/lows, reclaiming moving averages, and RSI pushing above 60.
youtu.be/SLUs175flLU
youtu.be/SLUs175flLU
A calm-looking day, but plenty of rotation underneath.
Tech and AI continue to struggle, other sectors are stepping up, and Tesla surprised with a breakout. Bitcoin breaking down adds another layer to the risk discussion.
Full CHART THIS episode → youtu.be/KUN35Pr2U3A
Tech and AI continue to struggle, other sectors are stepping up, and Tesla surprised with a breakout. Bitcoin breaking down adds another layer to the risk discussion.
Full CHART THIS episode → youtu.be/KUN35Pr2U3A
Tech Lags, Rotation Continues: Tesla Breaks Out as AI Weakens | CHART THIS (Dec 15)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 15, 2025 at 11:16 PM
A calm-looking day, but plenty of rotation underneath.
Tech and AI continue to struggle, other sectors are stepping up, and Tesla surprised with a breakout. Bitcoin breaking down adds another layer to the risk discussion.
Full CHART THIS episode → youtu.be/KUN35Pr2U3A
Tech and AI continue to struggle, other sectors are stepping up, and Tesla surprised with a breakout. Bitcoin breaking down adds another layer to the risk discussion.
Full CHART THIS episode → youtu.be/KUN35Pr2U3A
Julius de Kempenaer joins me to break down what RRGs are signaling in late 2025: slowing tech momentum, defensive rotation, and why confirmation matters near all-time highs.
youtu.be/JMbjtIoXx1c
youtu.be/JMbjtIoXx1c
Julius de Kempenaer on RRGs: Spotting Sector Rotation Before It Hits the Headlines
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 15, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Julius de Kempenaer joins me to break down what RRGs are signaling in late 2025: slowing tech momentum, defensive rotation, and why confirmation matters near all-time highs.
youtu.be/JMbjtIoXx1c
youtu.be/JMbjtIoXx1c
Seasonality isn’t a guarantee—it’s context. I talked with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac about 2025 surprises and what the midterm year of 2026 has historically meant for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin!
Watch here: youtu.be/0i2HW1COOS0
Watch here: youtu.be/0i2HW1COOS0
Seasonality Myths vs Reality: Jeff Hirsch’s 2026 Outlook (Stock Trader’s Almanac)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 14, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Seasonality isn’t a guarantee—it’s context. I talked with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac about 2025 surprises and what the midterm year of 2026 has historically meant for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin!
Watch here: youtu.be/0i2HW1COOS0
Watch here: youtu.be/0i2HW1COOS0
I always find December to be the best time to slow down, reflect, and reset.
If that resonates with you, I’d love for you to join this year’s conversation.
Join me for our latest FREE webcast!
If that resonates with you, I’d love for you to join this year’s conversation.
Join me for our latest FREE webcast!
Winners, Losers & Lessons: Your Year-End Investment Review
Mindful investors know that the end of the year is the ideal time to step back and evaluate what shaped their decisions. In this session, we’ll break down the trades that drove returns, the ones that…
marketmisbehavior.com
December 14, 2025 at 4:04 PM
I always find December to be the best time to slow down, reflect, and reset.
If that resonates with you, I’d love for you to join this year’s conversation.
Join me for our latest FREE webcast!
If that resonates with you, I’d love for you to join this year’s conversation.
Join me for our latest FREE webcast!
Definitely not toppy. $QQQ
December 14, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Definitely not toppy. $QQQ
Trying to make sense of the market moves that shaped your decisions this year?
Same here.
Let’s walk through it together in a relaxed, honest session.
Same here.
Let’s walk through it together in a relaxed, honest session.
Winners, Losers & Lessons: Your Year-End Investment Review
Mindful investors know that the end of the year is the ideal time to step back and evaluate what shaped their decisions. In this session, we’ll break down the trades that drove returns, the ones that…
marketmisbehavior.com
December 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Trying to make sense of the market moves that shaped your decisions this year?
Same here.
Let’s walk through it together in a relaxed, honest session.
Same here.
Let’s walk through it together in a relaxed, honest session.
AI leadership stumbled today as Broadcom sank, dragging tech and semis lower.
Markets sold off despite low volatility, and I tackled great mailbag questions on divergences, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, and growth vs value rotation.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/4ysrXm2jSIM
Markets sold off despite low volatility, and I tackled great mailbag questions on divergences, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, and growth vs value rotation.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/4ysrXm2jSIM
AI Cracks, Markets Slide: Broadcom Shakes Tech Leadership | CHART THIS (Dec 12, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 12, 2025 at 10:56 PM
AI leadership stumbled today as Broadcom sank, dragging tech and semis lower.
Markets sold off despite low volatility, and I tackled great mailbag questions on divergences, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, and growth vs value rotation.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/4ysrXm2jSIM
Markets sold off despite low volatility, and I tackled great mailbag questions on divergences, Ichimoku Cloud analysis, and growth vs value rotation.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/4ysrXm2jSIM
I’ve been digging through this year’s trades and patterns, and wow—there’s a lot to learn from the mix of wins and misses.
If you’re doing your own reflection, come hang out with me at Winners, Losers & Lessons.
marketmisbehavior.com/lessons
If you’re doing your own reflection, come hang out with me at Winners, Losers & Lessons.
marketmisbehavior.com/lessons
Winners, Losers & Lessons: Your Year-End Investment Review
Mindful investors know that the end of the year is the ideal time to step back and evaluate what shaped their decisions. In this session, we’ll break down the trades that drove returns, the ones that…
marketmisbehavior.com
December 12, 2025 at 6:25 PM
I’ve been digging through this year’s trades and patterns, and wow—there’s a lot to learn from the mix of wins and misses.
If you’re doing your own reflection, come hang out with me at Winners, Losers & Lessons.
marketmisbehavior.com/lessons
If you’re doing your own reflection, come hang out with me at Winners, Losers & Lessons.
marketmisbehavior.com/lessons
Post-Fed whipsaw day:
• S&P opened weak, closed just above 6900
• Value led: financials, materials, industrials
• Tech, comm services, energy lagged
• VIX under 15, breadth decent, cruise lines and gold miners strong
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/US-ND_cIv3A
• S&P opened weak, closed just above 6900
• Value led: financials, materials, industrials
• Tech, comm services, energy lagged
• VIX under 15, breadth decent, cruise lines and gold miners strong
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/US-ND_cIv3A
Value Rips, Tech Slips: S&P Hugs 6900 as VIX Drops | CHART THIS (Dec 11, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 11, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Post-Fed whipsaw day:
• S&P opened weak, closed just above 6900
• Value led: financials, materials, industrials
• Tech, comm services, energy lagged
• VIX under 15, breadth decent, cruise lines and gold miners strong
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/US-ND_cIv3A
• S&P opened weak, closed just above 6900
• Value led: financials, materials, industrials
• Tech, comm services, energy lagged
• VIX under 15, breadth decent, cruise lines and gold miners strong
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/US-ND_cIv3A
Fed cut 25bps and stocks ripped.
S&P touched 6900, breadth strong, SMID caps led — but key growth names like Microsoft and Meta didn’t join the rally.
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/2Hq5yP4mD2w
S&P touched 6900, breadth strong, SMID caps led — but key growth names like Microsoft and Meta didn’t join the rally.
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/2Hq5yP4mD2w
Fed Cuts & Stocks Surge: S&P Tags 6900 Before Pullback | CHART THIS (Dec 10, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 10, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Fed cut 25bps and stocks ripped.
S&P touched 6900, breadth strong, SMID caps led — but key growth names like Microsoft and Meta didn’t join the rally.
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/2Hq5yP4mD2w
S&P touched 6900, breadth strong, SMID caps led — but key growth names like Microsoft and Meta didn’t join the rally.
Today’s CHART THIS → youtu.be/2Hq5yP4mD2w
$META over 680 could be a pretty decent chart, as that would represent a new swing high as well as a break above moving average and Fibonacci resistance. But it needs to get above 680 first!
December 10, 2025 at 6:04 PM
$META over 680 could be a pretty decent chart, as that would represent a new swing high as well as a break above moving average and Fibonacci resistance. But it needs to get above 680 first!
Future textbooks on technical analysis may feature this chart of silver $SLV. Symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern after a big run higher into October. Pattern resolves to the upside, indicating a new accumulation phase with stronger momentum. #breakoutsarebullish
December 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Future textbooks on technical analysis may feature this chart of silver $SLV. Symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern after a big run higher into October. Pattern resolves to the upside, indicating a new accumulation phase with stronger momentum. #breakoutsarebullish
Literally a coin flip right now as to whether an $SPX stock is above its 50-day moving average. McClellan Oscillator is hanging just above the zero line, and both indicators suggest short-term breadth still ok... but very close to being not-really-ok.
December 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Literally a coin flip right now as to whether an $SPX stock is above its 50-day moving average. McClellan Oscillator is hanging just above the zero line, and both indicators suggest short-term breadth still ok... but very close to being not-really-ok.
Why are moving averages a part of our process? Because they remove noise and define the direction of the trend.
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
December 10, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Why are moving averages a part of our process? Because they remove noise and define the direction of the trend.
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Why are Fibonacci retracements part of our process? Because they help provide structure for risk/reward assessments.
See $META for a current example of combining these two approaches!
Fed week and the market stalled.
Early strength faded, breadth weakened, and fewer S&P names remain above the 50-day. Silver’s breaking out while semis hang in, but distribution signs are building.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/6Ntuc_wphII
Early strength faded, breadth weakened, and fewer S&P names remain above the 50-day. Silver’s breaking out while semis hang in, but distribution signs are building.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/6Ntuc_wphII
Market Stalls Ahead of Fed: Weak Breadth, Strong Silver | CHART THIS (Dec 9, 2025)
YouTube video by Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT
youtu.be
December 9, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Fed week and the market stalled.
Early strength faded, breadth weakened, and fewer S&P names remain above the 50-day. Silver’s breaking out while semis hang in, but distribution signs are building.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/6Ntuc_wphII
Early strength faded, breadth weakened, and fewer S&P names remain above the 50-day. Silver’s breaking out while semis hang in, but distribution signs are building.
Watch CHART THIS → youtu.be/6Ntuc_wphII
Salesforce $CRM finally pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. With RSI pushing above the important 60 level, and price finally breaking above moving average resistance, $CRM could be setting up for a new accumulation phase. See September 2024...
December 9, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Salesforce $CRM finally pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. With RSI pushing above the important 60 level, and price finally breaking above moving average resistance, $CRM could be setting up for a new accumulation phase. See September 2024...
Noting a confirmed head and shoulders top for bond prices $TLT, suggesting higher rates $TNX going into the last Fed meeting of 2025.
December 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Noting a confirmed head and shoulders top for bond prices $TLT, suggesting higher rates $TNX going into the last Fed meeting of 2025.
Last Friday, the equity-only put call ratio hit its lowest level since May. Spikes lower in this sentiment gauge have usually led to $SPX weakness over the next 3-5 sessions.
December 9, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Last Friday, the equity-only put call ratio hit its lowest level since May. Spikes lower in this sentiment gauge have usually led to $SPX weakness over the next 3-5 sessions.
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
December 9, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Only 31% of $SPX members have actually outperformed $SPX so far in 2025.
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!
schrts.co/kbccMHtc
Only three $SPX sectors have outperformed the $SPX in 2025 (see attached).
For a "broad advance", there's an uncomfortably large number of stocks that are underperforming!