Justin Lessler
@justinlessler.bsky.social
Faculty in Epidemiology at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health. Helps coordinate the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Seniors came to JD Vance's event to demand the Trump Administration stop cutting Social Security.
JD's response:
"Don't you all have jobs?"
JD's response:
"Don't you all have jobs?"
March 14, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Seniors came to JD Vance's event to demand the Trump Administration stop cutting Social Security.
JD's response:
"Don't you all have jobs?"
JD's response:
"Don't you all have jobs?"
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Cutting off funding to the institution that INVENTED CPR definitely seems like a smart idea. How did no one ever think of this before?
March 12, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Cutting off funding to the institution that INVENTED CPR definitely seems like a smart idea. How did no one ever think of this before?
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Ran out of room to tag the original post #episky (read it to see @justinlessler.bsky.social on @npr.org describing the contagiousness of measles given different vax rates)
February 28, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Ran out of room to tag the original post #episky (read it to see @justinlessler.bsky.social on @npr.org describing the contagiousness of measles given different vax rates)
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Wonderful explanation of contagion, reproductive numbers, & the reason #measles outbreaks *are* a big deal (courtesy of @npr.org & including insight from brilliant ID Epi @justinlessler.bsky.social):
www.npr.org/sections/sho...
www.npr.org/sections/sho...
As the Texas outbreak grows, how contagious is measles, really?
Vaccination eliminated measles from the U.S. 25 years ago. But it can still spread in pockets where vaccination rates are low, like the west Texas county with a current outbreak. Here's how fast.
www.npr.org
February 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Wonderful explanation of contagion, reproductive numbers, & the reason #measles outbreaks *are* a big deal (courtesy of @npr.org & including insight from brilliant ID Epi @justinlessler.bsky.social):
www.npr.org/sections/sho...
www.npr.org/sections/sho...
Reposted by Justin Lessler
February 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Reposted by Justin Lessler
“The Maryland National Guard must decline events which celebrates individuals based all or in part on immutable characteristics,” the memo said.
Douglass was an abolitionist, suffragist, orator and author. That’s what we celebrate him. Let’s be clear: This bars celebrating him because he was Black.
Douglass was an abolitionist, suffragist, orator and author. That’s what we celebrate him. Let’s be clear: This bars celebrating him because he was Black.
Maryland National Guard out of Frederick Douglass parade after DoD order
Strict guidance from the national defense department crushed plans for a parade held in honor of Frederick Douglass’ 207th birthday because it was being held during Black History Month.
www.thebaltimorebanner.com
February 15, 2025 at 7:07 AM
“The Maryland National Guard must decline events which celebrates individuals based all or in part on immutable characteristics,” the memo said.
Douglass was an abolitionist, suffragist, orator and author. That’s what we celebrate him. Let’s be clear: This bars celebrating him because he was Black.
Douglass was an abolitionist, suffragist, orator and author. That’s what we celebrate him. Let’s be clear: This bars celebrating him because he was Black.
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Goodnight friends. We end today with this quote for ourselves and for our new secretary of HHS.
February 14, 2025 at 4:46 AM
Goodnight friends. We end today with this quote for ourselves and for our new secretary of HHS.
Reposted by Justin Lessler
✨PLEASE SHARE! CDC GUIDELINE ARCHIVES✨
▶️STI GUIDELINES
buff.ly/4jReLT4
buff.ly/3EmjR9B
▶️Medical Eligibility Criteria (MEC) for Contraceptives buff.ly/3PZzQNf
buff.ly/4aKMEko
▶️VACCINE VIS buff.ly/4jJ1603
▶️Others from @jessicavalenti.bsky.social
LGBTQ CDCGuidelines.com
#medsky #pedsky #IDsky 🛟🧪
▶️STI GUIDELINES
buff.ly/4jReLT4
buff.ly/3EmjR9B
▶️Medical Eligibility Criteria (MEC) for Contraceptives buff.ly/3PZzQNf
buff.ly/4aKMEko
▶️VACCINE VIS buff.ly/4jJ1603
▶️Others from @jessicavalenti.bsky.social
LGBTQ CDCGuidelines.com
#medsky #pedsky #IDsky 🛟🧪
February 1, 2025 at 10:16 PM
✨PLEASE SHARE! CDC GUIDELINE ARCHIVES✨
▶️STI GUIDELINES
buff.ly/4jReLT4
buff.ly/3EmjR9B
▶️Medical Eligibility Criteria (MEC) for Contraceptives buff.ly/3PZzQNf
buff.ly/4aKMEko
▶️VACCINE VIS buff.ly/4jJ1603
▶️Others from @jessicavalenti.bsky.social
LGBTQ CDCGuidelines.com
#medsky #pedsky #IDsky 🛟🧪
▶️STI GUIDELINES
buff.ly/4jReLT4
buff.ly/3EmjR9B
▶️Medical Eligibility Criteria (MEC) for Contraceptives buff.ly/3PZzQNf
buff.ly/4aKMEko
▶️VACCINE VIS buff.ly/4jJ1603
▶️Others from @jessicavalenti.bsky.social
LGBTQ CDCGuidelines.com
#medsky #pedsky #IDsky 🛟🧪
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Five years ago (Monday 30 Dec 2019), a turning point: the news of an outbreak in Wuhan spread on messaging apps, social media (Weibo, then Twitter), and got out of China, culminating with a ProMED alert sent to the international medical community on 30-31 Dec. ▫️1/
December 30, 2024 at 9:08 AM
Five years ago (Monday 30 Dec 2019), a turning point: the news of an outbreak in Wuhan spread on messaging apps, social media (Weibo, then Twitter), and got out of China, culminating with a ProMED alert sent to the international medical community on 30-31 Dec. ▫️1/
Reposted by Justin Lessler
The studies informing stratified parameters in IDD models often have partitions (e.g age group) different from the model partitions. Most papers takes the median/mean estimates, but a correct solution exists: see this great paper/R pkg (C. Pearson, @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social @mert0248.bsky.social)
December 6, 2024 at 4:57 PM
The studies informing stratified parameters in IDD models often have partitions (e.g age group) different from the model partitions. Most papers takes the median/mean estimates, but a correct solution exists: see this great paper/R pkg (C. Pearson, @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social @mert0248.bsky.social)
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
paramix : An R package for parameter discretisation in compartmental models, with application to calculating years of life lost
Compartmental infectious disease models are used to calculate disease transmission, estimate underlying rates, forecast future burden, and compare benefits across intervention scenarios. These models ...
www.medrxiv.org
December 6, 2024 at 4:03 PM
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Now is a great time to get flu & covid vaccines before holiday travel & parties lead to an uptick. Flu cases are rising. Covid deaths are down compared to other yrs *but still outnumber flu*.
Re-sharing my piece on why vax, masks & tests are the best defense.
kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
Re-sharing my piece on why vax, masks & tests are the best defense.
kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
‘Emergency’ or Not, Covid Is Still Killing People. Here’s What Doctors Advise to Stay Safe. - KFF Health News
Thousands of people are still dying of covid, but government has mostly handed over responsibility to the people to weather the seasonal surges with their own strategies.
kffhealthnews.org
December 2, 2024 at 6:08 PM
Now is a great time to get flu & covid vaccines before holiday travel & parties lead to an uptick. Flu cases are rising. Covid deaths are down compared to other yrs *but still outnumber flu*.
Re-sharing my piece on why vax, masks & tests are the best defense.
kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
Re-sharing my piece on why vax, masks & tests are the best defense.
kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Note to journalists: important to communicate that the stated aim of GBD was to have a massive epidemic (immediately before vaccines became available), and also somehow keep it away from older population at higher risk (which would be about 25% of UK population if take age 60 as cutoff)
November 27, 2024 at 11:20 AM
Note to journalists: important to communicate that the stated aim of GBD was to have a massive epidemic (immediately before vaccines became available), and also somehow keep it away from older population at higher risk (which would be about 25% of UK population if take age 60 as cutoff)
Reposted by Justin Lessler
.@capublichealth.bsky.social reports finding #H5N1 #birdflu virus in raw milk. The producer, Raw Farm LLC of Fresno County, has agreed to recall a batch of a whole milk product called "cream top."
Milk from infected cows contains staggering levels of virus. www.statnews.com/2024/04/29/b...
Milk from infected cows contains staggering levels of virus. www.statnews.com/2024/04/29/b...
November 24, 2024 at 11:28 PM
.@capublichealth.bsky.social reports finding #H5N1 #birdflu virus in raw milk. The producer, Raw Farm LLC of Fresno County, has agreed to recall a batch of a whole milk product called "cream top."
Milk from infected cows contains staggering levels of virus. www.statnews.com/2024/04/29/b...
Milk from infected cows contains staggering levels of virus. www.statnews.com/2024/04/29/b...
In a month of bad news, this one hits especially hard. Simon's Rock was an incredibly special place that changed my life. Early college at Bard will be no substitute. www.bard.edu/news/bard-ac...
Chicken Fajita
Chicken Fajita
Bard Academy and Bard College at Simon’s Rock Announce Relocation to Bard College in New York’s Hudson Valley
The Bard College Board of Trustees and the Bard College at Simon’s Rock Board of Overseers today jointly announced that Simon’s Rock will be relocating from its Great Barrington, MA, campus to a new c...
www.bard.edu
November 19, 2024 at 11:11 PM
In a month of bad news, this one hits especially hard. Simon's Rock was an incredibly special place that changed my life. Early college at Bard will be no substitute. www.bard.edu/news/bard-ac...
Chicken Fajita
Chicken Fajita
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Our framework for combining standard epi models with an economic dynamic decision model is up on medRxiv! super flexible and excited to see where this project goes next www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Modeling dynamic disease-behavior feedbacks for improved epidemic prediction and response
Human behavior significantly influences infectious disease transmission, yet traditional models often overlook this factor, limiting predictions of disease and the associated socioeconomic impacts. We...
www.medrxiv.org
November 19, 2024 at 1:57 PM
Our framework for combining standard epi models with an economic dynamic decision model is up on medRxiv! super flexible and excited to see where this project goes next www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
We are hiring a postdoc to work on projects related to scenario modeling for public health with scenariomodelinghub.org. Apply at unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/288...
Home - Scenario model hub
Projections of Flu scenarios.
scenariomodelinghub.org
October 8, 2024 at 2:16 PM
We are hiring a postdoc to work on projects related to scenario modeling for public health with scenariomodelinghub.org. Apply at unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/288...
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Here is analysis of HA mutations in H5 influenza case in Missouri resident without known contact w animals or raw milk.
TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.
TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.
September 15, 2024 at 4:38 AM
Here is analysis of HA mutations in H5 influenza case in Missouri resident without known contact w animals or raw milk.
TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.
TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Shigeichi Negishi, the inventor of the world's first commercially-available karaoke machine, has died in Japan. He was 100 years old.
Karaoke inventor Shigeichi Negishi dies at 100
Negishi was in his 40s when he came up with the idea of prototyping a mass-produced, coin-operated karaoke machine, branded "Sparko Box" in 1967.
www.npr.org
March 15, 2024 at 10:24 PM
Shigeichi Negishi, the inventor of the world's first commercially-available karaoke machine, has died in Japan. He was 100 years old.
Reposted by Justin Lessler
Excited to see our working out in The Lancet Infectious Diseases on the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in DR Congo. One dose of OCV protects against clinical cholera for up to 24-36 mo
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
with @justinlessler.bsky.social @andrewazman.bsky.social
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
with @justinlessler.bsky.social @andrewazman.bsky.social
January 19, 2024 at 10:47 AM
Excited to see our working out in The Lancet Infectious Diseases on the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in DR Congo. One dose of OCV protects against clinical cholera for up to 24-36 mo
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
with @justinlessler.bsky.social @andrewazman.bsky.social
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
with @justinlessler.bsky.social @andrewazman.bsky.social
We are recruiting for Research Assistant Professor positions at UNC to work on projects aimed at making epidemic projections and analytics more accurate and more relevant to those who need them most. Consider applying to join our team!
unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/270...
unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/270...
December 4, 2023 at 2:54 PM
We are recruiting for Research Assistant Professor positions at UNC to work on projects aimed at making epidemic projections and analytics more accurate and more relevant to those who need them most. Consider applying to join our team!
unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/270...
unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/270...
Excited our work evaluating covid19scenariomodelinghub.org is out in Nature Communications www.nature.com/articles/s41... , with an accompanying piece here theconversation.com/pooling-mult.... Kudos to the brilliant @emilyhowerton.bsky.social for leading this work, and the many other contributors.
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertaint...
The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub produced medium to long term projections based on different epidemic scenarios. In this study, the authors evaluate 14 rounds of projections by comparing them to ...
www.nature.com
November 20, 2023 at 2:32 PM
Excited our work evaluating covid19scenariomodelinghub.org is out in Nature Communications www.nature.com/articles/s41... , with an accompanying piece here theconversation.com/pooling-mult.... Kudos to the brilliant @emilyhowerton.bsky.social for leading this work, and the many other contributors.
Super excited that our ACCIDDA center at UNC was selected to be a Center of Innovation and the Coordination Center for the CDCs Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. With JHU, UF, APL and Pitt. sph.unc.edu/sph-news/unc...
September 19, 2023 at 1:16 PM
Super excited that our ACCIDDA center at UNC was selected to be a Center of Innovation and the Coordination Center for the CDCs Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. With JHU, UF, APL and Pitt. sph.unc.edu/sph-news/unc...
Reposted by Justin Lessler
AN IMMENSE WORLD is out in paperback in the US today! 🥳
August 29, 2023 at 4:07 PM
AN IMMENSE WORLD is out in paperback in the US today! 🥳