Josh Housden
@josh-housden.nowcast.uk
He/Him • @nowcast-eu.bsky.social / https://www.nowcast.uk founder • Green Party member • I tweet about politics 📊
Pinned
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — December 30, 2025
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
As the year ends, a reminder that an election held today (with similarly low turnout) would be the worst result for Britain's two major parties since 1918
How do you reverse this?
How do you reverse this?
December 31, 2025 at 5:58 PM
As the year ends, a reminder that an election held today (with similarly low turnout) would be the worst result for Britain's two major parties since 1918
How do you reverse this?
How do you reverse this?
Reposted by Josh Housden
Amongst a dislikable field Starmer & Reeves still stand out www.ft.com/content/1995...
December 31, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Amongst a dislikable field Starmer & Reeves still stand out www.ft.com/content/1995...
Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social
December 31, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social
🇬🇧 | A year of HoC seat projections
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
December 30, 2025 at 6:03 PM
🇬🇧 | A year of HoC seat projections
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — December 30, 2025
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
December 30, 2025 at 1:41 PM
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — December 30, 2025
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317)
🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...
FWIW I wish there was more diversity in Scottish / Holyrood election pollsters but, for reference, the last YouGov poll was conducted in June - 6 months ago
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood projection based on @findoutnow.bsky.social polling
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
December 29, 2025 at 9:43 PM
FWIW I wish there was more diversity in Scottish / Holyrood election pollsters but, for reference, the last YouGov poll was conducted in June - 6 months ago
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood projection based on @findoutnow.bsky.social polling
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
December 29, 2025 at 8:20 PM
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood projection based on @findoutnow.bsky.social polling
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
🟨 SNP: 62 (-2)
➡️ RFM: 23 (+23)
🟩 GRN: 14 (+6)
🟥 LAB: 13 (-9)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021
Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇵🇹 Portugal | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 29, 2025
🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18)
🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5)
⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2)
ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7)
🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3)
🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1)
🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1)
🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1)
...
+/- vs. May 2025
🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18)
🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5)
⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2)
ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7)
🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3)
🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1)
🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1)
🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1)
...
+/- vs. May 2025
December 29, 2025 at 6:34 PM
🇵🇹 Portugal | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 29, 2025
🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18)
🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5)
⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2)
ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7)
🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3)
🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1)
🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1)
🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1)
...
+/- vs. May 2025
🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18)
🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5)
⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2)
ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7)
🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3)
🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1)
🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1)
🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1)
...
+/- vs. May 2025
🏴🟣 First Holyrood poll to feature 'Your Party' has them on 0% in the constituency vote and 1% in the regional lists
Realistically not enough for them to win any seats
Conducted by @findoutnow.bsky.social
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...
Realistically not enough for them to win any seats
Conducted by @findoutnow.bsky.social
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...
December 29, 2025 at 6:08 PM
🏴🟣 First Holyrood poll to feature 'Your Party' has them on 0% in the constituency vote and 1% in the regional lists
Realistically not enough for them to win any seats
Conducted by @findoutnow.bsky.social
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...
Realistically not enough for them to win any seats
Conducted by @findoutnow.bsky.social
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇩🇰 Denmark | Legislative Election polling averages — December 29, 2025
🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0)
🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4)
🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6)
+/- vs. 2022 [bloc]
Projection at the district level 👇
www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/
🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0)
🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4)
🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6)
+/- vs. 2022 [bloc]
Projection at the district level 👇
www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/
December 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🇩🇰 Denmark | Legislative Election polling averages — December 29, 2025
🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0)
🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4)
🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6)
+/- vs. 2022 [bloc]
Projection at the district level 👇
www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/
🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0)
🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4)
🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6)
+/- vs. 2022 [bloc]
Projection at the district level 👇
www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/
Reposted by Josh Housden
Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.
December 28, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.
House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
February 4, 2025 at 3:37 PM
House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
🟥 LAB: 199 (-212)
➡️ RFM: 171 (+166)
🟦 CON: 125 (+4)
UK seat projection under Proportional Representation - 03/02/25
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
February 3, 2025 at 4:25 PM
UK seat projection under Proportional Representation - 03/02/25
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
🟥 LAB: 168 (-66)
➡️ RFM: 161 (+65)
🟦 CON: 144 (-12)
🟧 LDM: 80 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 55 (+12)
🟨 SNP: 19 (+2)
+/- vs. GE24 (PR)
FPTP is a terrible system for modern-day British politics, most people understand that
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
All UK parties (except Conservatives, marginally) have voter bases that prefer proportional representation over first-past-the-post.
February 3, 2025 at 3:24 PM
FPTP is a terrible system for modern-day British politics, most people understand that
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't?
The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it
Labour vote share HALVED in Scotland
Down from 35.3%
Down from 35.3%
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 31% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-2)
RFM: 17% (+2)
CON: 12% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 15-20 Jan.
Changes w/ 17-24 Dec.
SNP: 31% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-2)
RFM: 17% (+2)
CON: 12% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 15-20 Jan.
Changes w/ 17-24 Dec.
February 2, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Labour vote share HALVED in Scotland
Down from 35.3%
Down from 35.3%
Aberdeen South nowcast - 02/02/25
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
February 2, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Aberdeen South nowcast - 02/02/25
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
(Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald)
🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1)
🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1)
🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7)
🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5)
🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7)
+/- vs. GE24
Stephen Flynn's seat
I think about this image a lot
January 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
I think about this image a lot
*PR* seat projection for today's @FindoutnowUK poll
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
January 9, 2025 at 4:59 PM
*PR* seat projection for today's @FindoutnowUK poll
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
🟥 LAB: 169 (-64)
➡️ RFM: 164 (+68)
🟦 CON: 132 (-24)
🟧 LDM: 73 (-8)
🟩 GRN: 70 (+27)
+/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result
Reposted by Josh Housden
For more than two weeks, students hold an overnight protest at the Shota Rustaveli Theater and Film University. Among nationwide demands, they also want the resignation of Rector Giorgi Shalutashvili.
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
January 5, 2025 at 2:59 PM
For more than two weeks, students hold an overnight protest at the Shota Rustaveli Theater and Film University. Among nationwide demands, they also want the resignation of Rector Giorgi Shalutashvili.
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests
As the year comes to a close, here's a quick update on party performance (1918 - 2024)
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
December 17, 2024 at 9:04 PM
As the year comes to a close, here's a quick update on party performance (1918 - 2024)
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Per recent polling:
🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918
🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024
Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline
Big problem with Labour abandoning WASPI women is that they (again) prove absolutely nothing they "pledge" can be trusted
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
December 17, 2024 at 3:23 PM
Big problem with Labour abandoning WASPI women is that they (again) prove absolutely nothing they "pledge" can be trusted
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this
Terrible MP, terrible Foreign Secretary
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
Foreign secretary says people should 'follow the rules' in other countries after 18-year-old constituent jailed in Dubai
Marcus Fakana, from David Lammy's Tottenham constituency, had a "holiday romance" with a girl who was 17 while with his family in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
news.sky.com
December 16, 2024 at 5:13 PM
Terrible MP, terrible Foreign Secretary
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
He should've resigned months ago.
news.sky.com/story/foreig...
Reposted by Josh Housden
It’s the week before the 6th annual Office Xmas Party & Paul & Eli are doing a bit of shopping. It’s one last walkabout adventure for 2024 & they’re loose in the cramped streets of London!
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk | CheapShow
It’s 2024’s final walkabout episode and Paul & Eli need to get a bit of shopping done. A simple errand becomes another rowdy adventure!
www.thecheapshow.co.uk
December 13, 2024 at 12:17 PM
It’s the week before the 6th annual Office Xmas Party & Paul & Eli are doing a bit of shopping. It’s one last walkabout adventure for 2024 & they’re loose in the cramped streets of London!
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Listen in MONO or STEREO editions!
Ep 414: Joy To The Walk
Share/Review
www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...
Assisted dying bill if parliament was proportionally elected (assuming party splits remain the same)
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
November 29, 2024 at 10:37 PM
Assisted dying bill if parliament was proportionally elected (assuming party splits remain the same)
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result
✅ FOR: 342 (+12)
❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4)
➖ ABSENT: 38
+/- vs. actual result